Will Putin a truce break, than to replace Petriets and what instead of mobilization - interview agile Rustamzade

On the eve of 2024 in different media, you often predicted that combat can end in the summer of 2025. How do you take the forecast now? - I made low probability forecasts. The probability is 50 percent. There was a paradigm that Trump could be angry with Putin and strengthen Ukraine's support. As we can see, this is not happening yet. There is a very difficult situation and it is difficult to predict something here, because it applies not only to war in Ukraine.

In the world in general, a difficult military-political situation-we have a crisis of global stability. How can Ukraine strengthen the army if Kyiv decides to abolish martial law? Then you have to cancel the mobilization? - Ukraine has gained advanced military experience. This applies to the asymmetric way of fighting. It is known that Ukraine is fighting with Russia fewer living strength and compensates for this inequality with drones.

I think that this path is possible without a sharp decline in the Ukrainian army. And most likely, if we are talking about the abolition of martial law, I think that Ukraine will need a new model and will need to return to conscript service and conscription service. By the way, many countries are already thinking about this, because professional armies can only hold very wealthy countries, such as the United States, France, Germany. Ukraine will be difficult to keep a half -million army.

There are now almost 1 million people in the defense forces, at the forefront, according to various estimates of 250-300 thousand. How many will remain after possible peace agreements? Will the front of the truce weaken and how to solve these problems? - Problems will solve technologies. Ukraine has learned to fight with fewer people.

And with a creative approach in the army, people who have gained real combat experience and know the war from the inside, not the elderly people who read the Soviet books, will listen to the army. It is a new galaxy of Ukrainian generals and warlords, and they can organize a defense system by increasing Ukraine's defense capability. Most likely, you will need a call and store the economy on military rails, producing enough different weapons systems that have shown efficiency.

Under what conditions and what can fighting begin again? - If we talk about a truce, depending on what conditions the Russian Federation will lay it. If they only intend to show Trump that the Russians are peaceful, then in just three days they will do some provocation and can restore fighting. The beginning of hostilities will be determined by military-political expediency. Ukraine will not be able to produce passes, missilers to Petriots.

What are the alternative measures? -As we know, anti-aircraft missile complexes, and even more so, the missile defense systems are a very difficult weapon in financial and scientific relation. Therefore, Ukraine will not be able to get key technologies in three to five years to develop these systems. But there are different alternatives to Patriot in the world. The same SAMP-T complexes that are upgraded. Very good missile test systems are available in Israel that can be purchased.

Or continue working with the Americans. You have warned many times that not everything is "smooth" with Europe. What do you mean? - It is about different approaches to ensuring the defense capability of both Ukraine and the European Union as a whole. We see that those countries that have a land or sea border from the Russian Federation in the Black Sea waters are more responsible for Ukraine's defense capability. And remotely, the countries do not take the threat seriously.

As we can see, their approaches are different. Plus there is another trend: countries, such as France, want to take advantage of the situation to strengthen their position in the European Union. To move, for example, Israel, Turkey, the United Kingdom, but this is not quite the right approach. Therefore, it is necessary that in Europe, security problems look at least on the same level, but there are pluralism of thought. The European MIC is gaining momentum, but not as fast as Ukraine would like.

What positions Europeans lag behind for years, that is, that they will not be able to deploy not this or next year? - The European MIC has two problems. This growth of production capacity is undoubtedly not to decide in a year or two. And the problem with the supply chain of different powder components. Plus there are gaps - Europe does not miss the entire volume and nomenclature of weapons and military equipment. For example, rocket launchers, or tactical ballistic missiles.

It takes years to develop and access these technologies. We also see a selfish approach. Here in Israel and Turkey there are systems of volley fire, but because of the position of France, Europe does not want to buy this weapon from other countries. The strongest armies of Europe, except Ukrainian, are French and Polish. In your opinion, what are the weaknesses of these armies? - Today, very fast steps are taking the United States, China.

With the exception of Russia and Ukraine, which during the war intensively switch to a new military-technical order, all other armies of the world have problems with air defense. This also applies to the armies of France and Poland. In all European countries, in general, there are very big problems with airfilling and anti -missile defense. They were not particularly engaged in this weapon sector.

Well, the technical side - most armies of the world have systems of weapons and military equipment that are not ready for confrontation and fighting in conditions where there are so many drones in the air and on earth. Ukraine is militarized and develops its MIC. Do she need to enter the international weapon market and if so, what positions to leave and what to put on export? -As for the Ukrainian Defense and Industrial Complex, (its development-ed.

) It is conditioned not only by the desire of Ukraine. It is a bilateral process in which the customer's wishes are important. I think that Ukraine has very great opportunities in the field of unmanned systems - air, terrestrial, marine. It is a product that proved to be in battle. Undoubtedly, if Ukraine has opportunities, it must go to the world market.

There is also a solution in inexpensive cruise missiles, and after the Ukrainian MIC is the right pace to secure itself, and there is an excess, you need to enter the international market where you can take strong positions. Drones. Is it a sphere that develops not every year, but every month, what we expect by the end of the summer, until the fall? What new trends will become a reality? - We already see certain trends.