Waiting for a fracture near Pokrovsk: As the Armed Forces change the situation in the main direction of the front

In a few preliminary reviews, I already stated the fact that the offensive actions of his troops (UV) "Center" south and southwest of Pokrovsk by his 41st and 2nd all-military armies (ZVA) were essentially paralyzed more than as a week. However, the size and degree of this paralysis, and most importantly, the impact on the situation in other directions is little aware. Meanwhile, the first "bells" are already being heard that the situation there may change even more radical.

Yes, there are more concerns of two questions: but obviously the answers to these questions are most directly related to the situation in the Pokrovsk region. It becomes quite obvious if you remember the composition of enemy forces and means, concentrated and expanded in this direction.

For those who forgot, I will remind that directly for actions against the Pokrovsky district of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy launched the main forces of two all-military armies (41 and 2nd name, with the inclusion in the first of them of a separate tank division/90th TD/27th) of the 27th). In addition, the entire 51st name of the enemy operates in adjacent directions (Novopavlovsky, Konstantinovsky and Toretsky). In addition, the latter has completed the deployment of the 8th name.

Figuratively speaking, in the lane approximately from Andreevka to the village of Druzhba (northeast of Toretsk), it is about 76-77 km in a straight line, the enemy launched 4 full -blooded all -military armies, which include, in particular, a tank and a rifle division.

It is clear that the tactical and operational density of the enemy's troops in this area is not the same (it all depends on the content of the tasks that Russian troops now solve in it, as well as on the current situation in its various areas and directions). However, in my opinion, even from a formal point of view, the concentration of forces and means of the enemy is quite striking.

Thus, returning to the question of the degree of influence of the situation "under Pokrovsk" on the situation in adjacent directions, it can be confidently stated that during a certain subsequent time the command of the enemy "Vostok", "Center" and "Yug" will be forced, and it is through this factor, to significantly review and adjust their immediate plans. It is obvious that a dispute on whether the Russian command of "storming" Pokrovskaya has refused or not is absolutely meaningless.

It did not refuse. Otherwise, it would not be put into battle on a relatively narrow plot of its tactical inquiry to the southwest of Pokrovsk (from Uspenivka to Shevchenko (Upper)), up to 7 km deep and up to 8 km on the front, at once 4 motorized rifle brigades (74th, 55-and-three-way) Motorized Division (433 and 506th SMEs).

And not attacked in the "loss" mode we do not count "in the northwestern and western directions in order to cut two key ways for the defense of Pokrovsk-on borders and Pavlograd. Moreover, despite the fact that the enemy cannot advance for almost two weeks, he has not stopped trying to do it - attacks/assaults in the area of ​​Kotlyne village, in the direction of lucky, Uspenivka and in the sandy area are practically without stopping.

It is clear that if the enemy abandoned his own desire to "bypass" the Pokrovsky District Defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the West, then these forces and means would not show such suicide perseverance in attacking actions and we would not have observed such concentration in this direction. However, in the last week, there have been several events that can have far -reaching consequences for the whole "center".

And directly influence what and how it will happen in the north (in the direction of Konstantinovka) and in the south (in the direction of Novopavlivka). It is: the fact that the enemy, as I said above, did not stop the attacks themselves almost around the perimeter of this inquiry, despite the fact that he was forced to retreat from a number of positions he had previously taken. That is, he still has enough people and resources to continue attacking actions.

Another thing is that it no longer brings him a result. In other words, we can only state the stopping of the Russian offensive southwest of Pokrovsk, but it is not necessary to talk about some "cutting" and "breakthroughs" of the Armed Forces at all. Although, of course, the areas and directions where the Armed Forces were counterattack, in this regard are quite eloquent and clearly not accidental.

It is clear that the whole situation in the context of the "intentions and desires" of the Russian command (especially in the "Center") clearly does not bring him much pleasure. And it obviously will try to correct the whole thing.

And in this regard, a much more interesting question is - how and how is it going to do it? By and large, it can be done in two main ways - using additional forces and means or - to restore the offensive capabilities of the parts already deployed and operating in this direction and connections with significant replenishment of personnel and military equipment.

As I wrote earlier, as a result of the elimination of the "remnants" of the Kurakhiv Armed Forces of the Armed Forces, the Russian command was able to "release" from that direction a whole all-military army (8-AS).

In addition, it is obvious that due to the regrouping of a number of brigades of the 51st title (which, in fact, acts as a kind of "wandering troupe of touring artists" in the sector of UV "Center" and "Yug"), he managed to compact the battle orders meters a day, but still - crawl forward). That is, the same additional forces and means to restore an effective offensive near Pokrovsk, hostile command can find for a great desire, namely in the neighboring directions.

Another thing is that such actions will definitely have a "dramatically negative" impact on the situation on the same areas. Moreover, this will clearly affect the overall intentions (plans) of the enemy about these "other" directions.

For example, if now, to restore the offensive on Pokrovsk, the enemy will start to transfer the forces and means from the 8th or 51st General (and in the current conditions it is the most likely scenario), then it clearly "significantly delay" his offensive to Konstantinovka, at least from the south.

The same thing will happen if the Russian command, for example, for the same purpose will start to "dig in the reserves of" East ", which is still coming, but clearly after such" digging "will be forced to stop it as a result of withdrawal of 1-2 brigades from its composition" for the needs of Pokrovsk ". With replenishment of regiments and the description of the 41st.

The height of their offensive to Pokrovsk The total number of Russian troops, which operated on this and related directions, was approximately 110–115 thousand people. Expensive "and the consequences of this are now signs. In addition, we will remind that at this time the Russian command" works "in Kupyansk, Liman, Kramatorsk, Kursk and Greater Mikhail directions, which also requires replenishment (albeit in a limited number), which in the last 3 months has shown a" negative ".

An eloquent indicator is that if earlier the enemy could form 1-2 assault company on the basis of 1-2 battalions, now he has to do it mainly on the basis of brigades, regiments and divisions, literally "cleaning" their rear. Previously, replenishment of several hundred people for parts and units operating in the first line was considered "standard", now the "assault carcass" party from 25-30 "heads" for some advanced brigade is already considered "significant".

It is obvious that the situation with the "slowing" of its offensive in the area of ​​Pokrovsk does not suit the Russian command at all. And, most likely, it will try to fix it. But it is also obvious that it can only do it at the expense of something else. Because his strength and means for this case are extremely limited.

Therefore, it can be stated that the scale and intensity of the so -called "strategic offensive" of the Russian Federation (and in fact, a series of "partially interconnected" offensive operations in individual operational directions) is gradually decreasing. Somewhere this offensive has stopped completely, somewhere he is still convinced.