Where to take money for war: how to Ukraine to stand in the battle for exhaustion

Will they increase taxes in Ukraine, where to take money for defense and how to stand in the war for exhaustion in the face of energy collapse and growth of the state debt? Focus spoke with economic experts. In April, the total public debt of Ukraine increased to 6. 010 trillion UAH. Such data is cited by the Ministry of Finance. The additional need for military expenditures in the state budget-2024 is estimated at $ 5 billion.

This was stated by Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko on the air of Public Radio. Although there is a hope for reaching an agreement with creditors before August 1, Ukraine should overlap Ukraine. Is there a stock of safety? According to the Minister of Finance, in 2023, in the conditions planned about $ 27 billion in defense expenditures, Ukraine actually spent $ 73 billion on aggression.

The allocation of US budget assistance covered the expenditures of the social and humanitarian direction of Ukraine in 2024, however, there was a problem with military expenditures. According to Marchenko, because in the last half of a year, Ukraine has received minimally assistance from partners, the budget has undergone additional military expenditures.

In 2023, in the conditions planned about $ 27 billion in defense expenditures, Ukraine actually spent $ 73 billion on aggression "I think, we can talk about a figure about $ 5 billion," said Sergey Marchenko. There are no unambiguous answers in Ukraine, however, as Marchenko said, this question will be resolved in the near future: "We must first calculate correctly. There is no one magical decision here, such as raising a military fee.

" According to Focus financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn, in 2022 Ukraine spent 1. 14 trillion UAH, in 2023-2. 09 trillion UAH, and for 4 months of 2024-0. 58 trillion UAH. "At the same time, according to the statements of funding officials, in 2024 a budget gap of $ 5 billion (about UAH 190 billion) has already emerged, and the Ministry of Defense requires UAH 370 billion of additional funds.

On average, 95% of all budget revenues, without taking into account assistance partners, goes on defense and safety. Some of the cutting of social expenditures, by and large, will not give anything, because they are so funded by external assistance, " - said Andriy Shevchyshyn. There are not many tools for raising revenues, according to a financier.

"Improvement of administration (tax, customs, licensed companies, reduction of the shadow economy and corruption component), increase of taxes, internal borrowings through bonds of internal government loans (T -bills), acceleration Privatization. Specialists of the Center for Economic Strategy confirm that from the beginning of a full -scale invasion, all their own revenues of the Ukrainian state budget have been aimed at financing defense.

They estimated that such expenditures occupy about half the budget. According to the economist CES Maxim Samoylyuk, all civil expenditures of the state budget Ukraine cover at the expense of foreign financial aid, namely, in 2024 the need for such external financing is $ 38 billion.

All civil expenditures of the state budget Ukraine cover at the expense of foreign financial aid, namely, in 2024 the need for such external financing is $ 38 billion "in May, foreign financial assistance fell to the smallest level from the beginning of a full -scale invasion: Ukraine received only $ 20 million from world Bank. It has been lost that it has a negative impact on the ability of the Ukrainian government to plan expenditures, " - says CES analyst.

According to the tracker of Ukraine's economy during the war from the CES, in May, foreign budget assistance has fallen to $ 20 million.

In the face of enemy attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, lack of commercial exports of electricity, reduction of international reserves, as well as in the conditions of import of large volumes of electricity, reduction of exports of agricultural products and costs of mobilization needs, new risks are created, which further complicate the forecasts of changes in the Ukrainian economy. Thus, according to the CES, if in May 2024 inflation remained low at 3.

3% in the annual dimension, then in the following months it can accelerate due to the influence of the energy crisis on price increase. "The needs for financing have increased a little. It is interesting that the optimists who have predicted the need for funding at a lower level last December have now pulled up to the level of medium and discrepancy in how much Ukraine will need money now: it is $ 50-60 billion for that To close the budgetary needs in 2024.

", - says Maria Repko, Deputy Director of the Center for Economic Strategy. The state's debt guaranteed by the end of 2024 will probably not exceed 100% of GDP and, according to various estimates, will be 94-96% of GDP. As for the hryvnia rate, the analytics here forecasts moderate weakening-up to 40.

1 UAH per dollar at the end of 2024, according to its forecast, the state guaranteed debt at the end of 2024 will probably not exceed 100% of GDP and, according to various estimates, will be 94-96% GDP. As for the hryvnia rate, the analytics here forecasts moderate weakening - up to 40. 1 UAH per dollar at the end of 2024. The leading expert of the Institute for Economic Research and Political Consultations by Alexander Betliy notes the deterioration of GDP growth of Ukraine.

It adds that real GDP in 2024 is 3. 8%, and the next should be expected 3. 5%. "This is a deterioration compared to the forecast that we had before. And this situation was a consequence of the fact that we lose electricity generation. 2022-2023, the Russians bombed the electricity transfer, and now we are losing the generation. The question is that In the future, the growth will depend on how much Ukraine will be able to provide electrical generation (it is a modular, piston, gas stations, etc. ).

According to financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn, a painful tax issue is not the sole alternative in a state of state budget deficit, because there is a lending, bonds of internal government loans. "According to May 2024, the banking system contains 1. 67 trillion UAH of deposits, with loans issued only by 0. 77 trillion UAH. And this is only about the hryvnia, and only residents. Almost 0.

9 trillion is not They work in the government It is unlikely that citizens will be in demand to satisfy this need This is probably not enough. Another factor in market deduction and increasing the revenues of the analyst is economic reservation. "The population has a currency in the volume of $ 20-60 billion, which can also work for the economy. With the profitability of a currency deposit 0. 1-0. 5% per annum there is no point in carrying a currency to the bank.