Putin's gas. Why Europe and Ukraine is a ceiling of prices for Russian gas

The restrictions will be valid during the year from February 15, 2023. "The price of 180 euros became a compromise between countries that oppose any restriction and the countries that demanded a lower ceiling. And this confirms the results of the vote, because only Hungary was opposed, and abstained by the Netherlands and Austria, when earlier the countries that We were against such an intervention in the market, there was more, - comments Agia Zagrebelsk, the founder of the league of antitrast.

- The fact that they eventually voted for this decision confirms the achievement of a compromise. " According to Maxim Bilyavsky, the energy markets analyst, the price limits will be applied only in the stock market segment and will be put into operation in the case of fixing the exceeding of the established ceiling within three days.

Agia Zagrebelskaya adds that the restrictions are involved in the simultaneous fulfillment of two conditions: the focus interlocutor adds that the restriction can be suspended in the following cases: "This mechanism aims to get rid of the war allowance that Europe pays for its energy," - quoted Bloomberg frame Simson, EU Energy Commissar.

In her opinion, the region will be better prepared for the next winter season and for a new round of repositories that will be more complicated than the present. Agia Zagrebelskaya notes that the price of 180 euros is lower than today's prices, but the restriction will take effect in February 2023 and it is difficult to predict what gas prices will work in the next year.

According to Focus interlocutor, the situation in the EU market next year will differ significantly from 2022 three key aspects: "All this will affect the increase in gas demand, and accordingly - the increase in prices, - comments on the possible situation in the Zagrebelsk market. - Almost all the necessary gas resource The EU will have to get from third countries, and the continent will have to be severely competitive for supply with the Asian market.

To what price jump it can lead to - now it is difficult to say, but, unambiguously, the next heating season will become significantly more difficult for the EU. ” Focus surveyed by experts evaluates the entry restriction restriction of gas. natural gas.

But the expert notes that on the other hand, in 2022 only for 40 trading days stock quotes of PR Irod gas in the European market exceeded the installed ceiling at 180 euros per megawatt hour, which is equivalent to $ 1900-2000 for thousand cubic meters. Depending on the calorie content of the gas.

Maxim Bilyavsky believes that it would be advisable to improve the mechanism of restriction of gas price in the EU by taking such three edits: Bilyavsky warns that if the mechanism of price restriction in the EU is not improved, there is a sufficiently high risk of repetition of various acided incidents at gas transportation facilities. We will remind, in September 2022 the world struck the accident of unprecedented scale on the gas pipelines "Nord Stream".

NATO Nord Stream-1 and North Stream-2 estimates were deliberately damaged, and experts are inclined to believe that this was a consequence of Russia. Such a strategy of the Russian Federation is based on a deep ideological basis laid down under the Soviet Empire. Maxim Bilyavsky reminds that the author of the concept of international terrorism was the head of external intelligence of the USSR in 1956-1971 Alexander Sakhorovsky, whose views are characterized .

Bilyavsky suggests that this approach has taken into service the current Russian tyrant Putin. Today, the main purpose of Russian terrorism was the sphere of energy, which additionally confirms the missile firing of Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Worldwide, Russia, in particular, uses price blackmail in the gas market, which is called new EU restrictions. That is, to dictate the market prices at $ 4,000 for thousand cubic meters, as Gazprom dreamed, Russia is unlikely to succeed.

But from the terrorist state it is quite possible to expect other devastating pranks. The sanctions applied to Russia from the beginning of a full -scale invasion are gradually shaking the Russian economy. According to the World Bank of GDP of Russia in 2022, it should be reduced by 4. 5%and exports - by 12. 3%. The situation for the Russian Federation is somewhat improved by high energy prices in the I-III quarters of 2022.

"However, through the embargo and price ceiling for tanker oil from the Western countries, and it is expected to introduce them a price ceiling for natural gas from February 2023, the recession in the Russian Federation will be delayed and will last at least until mid-2024,"- writes in his telegram. Channel Danilo Getmantsev, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy.

But then the politician notes that sanctions against the hydrocarbon sector of the Russian Federation-play in a long, when the possibilities of the aggressor country will gradually exhaust due to price restrictions and reduction of production (which has already begun). However, according to experts surveyed, the impact of the introduction of a marginal price for gas for the Russian economy will not be significant.

According to Maxim Bilyavsky, the current version of price restrictions, unfortunately, will not affect the income of the aggressor state. "It is unlikely that it should be considered an anti -Russian step, since the supply of Russian gas to the EU is either not at all or they will be scanty," Agia Zagrebelskaya continues.

According to the focus interlocutor, the introduction of a marginal gas price for individual EU countries is more likely to solve internal challenges - to provide affordable gas prices for household consumers and business -dependent businesses. There is also no significant impact on the situation in Ukraine from the innovation.

"The current edition of price restrictions on gas in the case of buying blue fuel at the EU stock market will allow Ukraine in the person of the national trader to save money," comments Maxim Bilyavsky. bilateral agreements. " According to Agia Zagrebelskaya, the main and most important decisions of the EU concerns joint procurement of gas, the combination of demand and joint management of logistics facilities.