Peace until November: what the Russian Federation achieves in the summer and when to wait for the real end of the war

The analyst Alexei Kopitko summarizes what happened at the front and makes the forecast for the future. First of all, how much peace is possible, the conversations of which have recently been intensified, in particular from the submission of the Russians. The enemy crawls in the direction of Pokrovsk - Konstantinovka. This is the most problematic point. There is a negative in the area of ​​Toretsk. The use of cabins increases everywhere.

In the north of the Kharkiv region, the latest changes at the dipstye - June 18, the movement of Russians in the gray zone to the east. Rosvoyak mood information from this site, data from Russian hospitals and Russian volunteers indicate that the enemy faced problems that he clearly did not expect. They are shocked. In the statistics of Russian losses "Kharkiv Direction" comes to one of the first places.

In fact, the Russians created a point where they are forced to constantly delay the assault parts from other areas of the front and hide them there. To sell further - there is no strength, go out - to run into many unpleasant questions. We have small tactical improvements in the direction of flint. The ravine is reflected. Experts say (see Constantine Mashovets reviews) that the enemy is a little late with the formation of conditions for the main operation for summer - autumn.

According to the IP group, in the 3 weeks of June, 2. 4 thousand soldiers were publicly buried in the Russian Federation, 3+ thousand will be in the month. If you believe the estimates that the Russian Federation collects about 25-30 thousand mercenaries a month, they themselves admit that they themselves recognize that Every eighth or tenth rookies dies. In fact, no less than every fifth (most likely more). Together: given the wounded, the conservative assessment of those who leave . . .

- about 25 thousand a month. Plus patients, deserters, non -statutory relationships and more. That is, all replenishment goes into scrap. Clean meat grinder. Obviously, the Russians were betting on our defense during the exchanging people. In fact, it turned out that the restoration of assistance and drones is broken. They will not be able to achieve something more without mobilization.

Increasing single payments to mercenaries to $ 18 thousand indicates that those who want to fight for money are less. In July, the bulk of Russian stitches will try to transfer to a contract and throw it to the front. If this fails, the current drawing - pressure and grinding - will be stored by the end of the year. First, Putin "flashed" and rolled his "peaceful" demands that everyone rejected. Even Trump. A clear barbell. It was not possible to spoil the peace of peace.

The scout also made a visit to the DPRK, which removed the latest questions in which league he was about to play. And he spam threats on the topic. What used to coincide with the failures of the Russian Federation on the front. Now the Russians either have to show something really strikingly on the battlefield, or "clarify" their position towards weakening. Secondly, the main thesis was the "cessation" of the war. Even our diplomats use this word. I will not comment on why.

It is likely that this best corresponds to the situation and allows you to develop some workpieces. But a visual trend is a request for termination of hostilities and then consideration. Third, Trump-Bayden debates clearly marked the perspective that there is no radical steps until November. But from November, some innovations are already possible, including negotiations on the beginning of real negotiations (I emphasize: it is possible, but not necessarily).

It is necessary to interpret this moment clearly. A great temptation to think that "everything will end in November. " I have already heard this in conversations. The "tolerate" approach is detrimental. Key dilemma - how do we enter in the winter? Against the background of active fighting? Against the backdrop of the front and hypothetical negotiations? The essence of the work in the coming months is to reach November to the maximum position.

It will be determined: if we do not demonstrate readiness for these two positions - in the negotiations the "world community" will press on us (to seem to seem). If we prepare - on Putin (so that he does not climb further and reduce the demand bar). Because another grueling winter and the accumulation of problems for all. Attempting to break something until November is not excluded (there are interested subjects), but the space for it is narrowing rapidly.

Most likely, imitation as an activity that shapes the agenda is possible. I repeat, you need to prepare and resist at least in the spring of 2025. Then it will be possible to move towards the improvement. The EU management looks acceptable (in places - good), talks will give you a lot of tire news. But this is a forward movement. Feeling former. The situation on the front, in the economy, social sphere is the most difficult.

But the opportunity to defend themselves is not lost, there is no need to agree to any conditions. To overcome our army from the Russians does not work. In the summer, they will continue to spend enormous efforts to undermine the rear in the rear, to break the support of the military, to internal retreat and to inhibit external assistance. On the one hand, the intensity of barbaric blows in civilian increases.

On the other hand, you can already see how they fit into the heating of the expectations of the fast finish. "That all this is over as soon as possible. " For people to cover with emotions and knock out a rhythm. Some time ago, I suggested that there were possible attacks on the VRU to disrupt the continuation of martial law. Today, the SBU reported the detention of a group that intended to arrange a swing around the Council, with an attempt to capture the building.

I do not know any details, I will simply celebrate all the facts of encroachment on Parliament . . . Football has already shown how the attention of the masses can switch. Plus elections. There is still an Olympics ahead. By the beginning of the "dead season" in politics - 3 weeks. Exacerbation in the Middle East can break summer mode. And/or distant. What more attention will be distracted. All this time, the Russians are pressed. Mentally surviving this period will help the constructed routine.

We went on a few segments of the marathon on moral and volitional. It is time to act as pragmatically as possible so that you can add as needed. Beautiful words only take good things (especially this will be the NATO summit, to which partners have been able to reduce expectations). Remember how good did Stoltenberg say? And Macron? These pages are inverted - new circumstances. In general, without much lumen, a lot of dense work that requires, but still depends a lot on us. What is strange.