Elections to the face of war. Why Taiwan is not Ukraine, though very similar

In the global world, events occurring on the other side of the globe can sometimes have a greater impact on the situation than those that occur per kilometer. This is the factor for Ukraine that is Taiwan's elections. There are often parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan.

Both countries are located at the edges of the "democratic world", playing the role of its outposts, respectively, their destruction will mean the exit of authoritarian systems beyond its traditional range, the destruction of the current world order. Hence the close connection. Taipei was carefully watched by Russian aggression against Ukraine, projecting events in Ukraine for its own security.

It seems that in Beijing Russian invasion is perceived as a possible rehearsal of their own intervention on Taiwan. In the People's Liberation Army of China work on the mistakes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. In the Celestial, they actively practice a saying about a wise who learns from other people's mistakes. Xi Jinping in New Year's greetings stated that "the Chinese people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are sure to reun.

" After that, a high -ranking diplomat responsible for communications with the island appealed to the Taiwani to make the right choice. Considering the millennial history of Chinese tendency to symbols and ceremonies, it can be argued that Beijing has taken a course on Taiwan's integration this year. And in the coming days the first act of this drama will be played, which has a chance to grow into a tragedy. He will attempt peaceful integration by political methods.

For the last 75 years, Taiwan Island has lived as a virtually a full -fledged state with its army, governing bodies and, most importantly, lifestyle, completely different from what has developed in continental China. Interestingly, the Republic of China did not immediately become democracy. Initially, it was a brutal authoritarian regime of military junta, led by a constant leader of Generalisimus Chan Kaiha.

The martial law on the island was abolished only in 1987 (38 years - a record of duration of martial law in the world). It was only nine years that the first free elections of the authorities took place in the country and whether the latter depends on the Taiwanese largely on January 13, who demonstrate a fairly high political activity. The co -founder of New Bloom Magazine Brian Hioe notes an extremely high degree of policy integration into society.

In the last general elections in 2020, the turnout was almost 75% (about 19. 5 million citizens of the country who are 20 years old have a total of voice). During the martial law, the Kuomintang Party was formed on the island, which lost the Civil War to the Communists in 1949. However, in the early 1980s, the Democratic Progressive Party began operating in the country.

It is clear that the electoral base of Departy in the first decades of democracy, when the island had a two -party system, there were young people and wide sections of the population, which were tuned against the current political elite. Therefore, the left political spectrum became a logical choice for the party, while the Kuomintinth became a classic right conservative party.

The paradox, but now the Kuomintana stands for friendship with communist China, and the communist top corresponds to its former enemy reciprocity. It is on Homindan that they bet in Beijing, and no one is going to hide it. The PPP is a supporter of the idea of ​​gaining a full -fledged independence in the final perspective. PPP in power on the island since 2016.

Its popularity was to some extent contributed to Beijing's actions on Hong Kong from which they took away autonomy, despite Beijing's promises, data from 1997, when the city agreed to integration with the PRC. It is clear that this contributed to the promotion of Taiwan's independence.

However, two years later, the PPP was a terrific defeat in the local elections, in particular the mayor of the capital was elected representative of Kuomintanh Hoy Yu I, who in this election became a nominee from the party to the post of president of the country. He believes that the only chance to prevent war with the PRC is to deepen economic cooperation with mainland China and to strengthen integration in certain areas of interaction with Beijing.

However, Taiwan's presidential elections are different from the local ones. In 2022, people voted against the unsuccessful socio-economic policy of the PPP. The household problems of simple Taiwanmen came to the fore. It is clear that the presidential election is a priority issue of strategic political course.

Therefore, the leader of the race, according to the latest surveys (by local law, sociological surveys cannot be published within the last ten days before the vote) is still a representative of the Democratic Progressive Party, the current Vice president Lai Chin-T. It is ready to support 35% of voters.

The Taiwan presidential election takes place in one round, regardless of the turnout and the number of votes gained, the candidate for whom the most voters voted (unlike Ukraine and most democratic states, where more than half of the voter votes that have taken up to win the first round. participation in voting). However, most Taiwans do not trust the official Beijing and, moreover, against the absorption of their free homeland by an authoritarian PRC.

Residents of the Republic of China appreciate their democracy, which many observers are called one of the exemplary and shows in Asia. However, there are many problems in the country. Corruption among the elites is one of the most serious ordinary Taihani.

During the years in power (every time the PPP representative won both of the Presidential Election Campactions of 2000 and 2008 and 2016 and 2020), the Democratic Progressive Party in many began to associate with a political establishment no less than Komindan. And the youth who voted for her in the mid-1990s during this time grew and agitated. The new generation needed new faces.

In democratic political systems, the electoral request is never dissatisfied, so the political spectrum of Taiwan has been supplemented with a new color. The blue (color of the Kuominjdan) and green (the color of the PPP) was added the turquoise color of the Taiwan People's Party. In Asian countries, color is important symbolic. Turquoise color is the result of mixing blue and green. This is the kind of NPT program - a conglomerate of the program theses of Kuomintang and PPP.

The first significant success of NPT was the victory in the election of Mayor Taipei in 2014. Then he became a former surgeon Kone Jae. He headed the capital for two consecutive terms until the above mentioned above and in the last municipal elections. Now he will compete with him at the national level. The former surgeon compared the situation on the shores of the Taiwan Strait with the treatment of prostate cancer.

He howled that the removal of the tumor carries a high level of risk of death of the patient, while with a tumor a person can live a long life, occasionally performing appropriate treatment procedures. With this metaphor, he obviously tried to explain that "the bad peace is better than a good war" and coexistence with the enemy is quite possible, while an attempt to complete destruction may end in death.

Instead, Wen Jae came across criticism of the Taiwanese urological association, which called these theses anti -scientific, absurd in terms of evidence -based medicine. As noted above, most likely the President will choose a PPP representative. Before the external threat that most of the Taiwans sees in the PRC, all internal problems will be faded.

However, one day with the presidential election (which will also be elected by the American model) will also take place in the island as a parliamentary election. The Republic of China is a presidential country-the President forms the executive power, but Parliament issues laws, so there can be no effective implementation of his political course without control over the parliament. The election system to the legislature of the Republic of China can be called complicated mixed.

There are 113 seats in the Taiwan Parliament, 73 of which are elected by majority system, 34 by party lists (proportional election system), and 6 more places were reserved by the indigenous residents of the island. Women should occupy half seats in party lists. It is clear that under such a system it is much more difficult to predict the election results. After all, 65% of the party rating only 34 seats, that is, only about 20 deputies out of 113.

And here are already in corruption signs, socio-economic problems, to which the average Taiwanese attribute expensive housing prices and a low level of social protection of vulnerable segments of the population. However, it should be noted that in 2023, inflation was only a little less than 3%on the island, which is one of the world records of currency stability. The associated researcher of the Taiwanese Academy Sinika in Washington, Nathan F. Butto predicts the defeat of the PPP.

The leadership party will lose the majority that Kuomintan will most likely get. However, the nationalists can confuse maps to nationalists, which can thus break into the higher political league and balance the forces in the legislative body. The existence of the Republic of Chinese in itself indicates the complexity and versatility of political history and international relations on the planet, which provide numerous exceptions to the rules.

Despite many identities in the situation with Ukraine and Taiwan, there are many significant differences: so one who points to a complete analogy between Ukraine and Taiwan, to some extent, retransles Kremlin propaganda. After all, such theses sound from Moscow - Ukraine is an inferior state and no Ukrainian nation exists, there is only a political entity that divides "one people". In the case of Taiwan, it is largely.

Therefore, you should not look for Taiwanese elections of local "Yanukovych" or "Medvedchuk". The island has its political history. And the definition of elections with Taiwan's independence referendum is nothing more than the political technology of the governing democratic progressive party, which in this way tries to play on the patriotic feelings of those Taiwanese who still hesitate to cast their voice for them.

In the end, even the potential winner of the presidential election, the PPP representative Lai Chin-T will not declare Taiwan's independence at once, and most likely he will not do it during his cadence, as this would be a direct challenge of powerful mainland China, which remains the largest economic partner. And no one wants wars. Taiwan looks as Russian missiles destroy Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, and this reflects many desires to come into direct contact with the PRC.

Here the Kremlin really did a service to its present cartridge. Will not really make any important steps towards merger with the PRC and the main oppositionist of the country-representative of the Kuomintang and the current mayor Here, the mayor Taipei is a wide field of action, but in a year and a half he did not take any radical action. The explanation is simple - in all the eyes of Hong Kong.