Without "Armata", Su-75 and PAK-DA: why the defense industry of the Russian Federation fell into crisis

What are the capabilities of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation and did the crisis really begin in the fourth year of the war? The Russian defense industry is suffering under the burden of military needs and sanctions. Major programs — the Su-75, Su-57, T-14 Armata, and PAK DA — are constantly being disrupted, and factories are competing with each other for chips, investment, and skilled labor.

Focus translated an article by scientist and former US Army infantryman Brent M. Eastwood for The National Security Journal. In the article "The Russian Army is experiencing a crisis", Eastwood investigated the situation in the Russian military industry and explained whether the Russian Armed Forces will be able to get new military equipment to continue the war in Ukraine. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have problems with the procurement of defense products.

Vladimir Putin, his generals and admirals often make big promises and don't keep them. The Russians are clearly experiencing difficulties in the war against Ukraine and cannot create the "superweapon" so necessary for Putin. Difficulties in Russia began immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The lack of finances had a negative impact on military needs.

The government worked in a chaotic mode, paying the main attention to support of the young market economy and other domestic political problems. This led to the cancellation and delays of various aircraft and shipbuilding programs. It took years to restore the defense industry. Now, in connection with the war in Ukraine, Russia must again review the purchase of defense products within the framework of expensive and ambitious programs, such as the Su-75, Su-57, T-14 "Armata" and PAK-DA.

For example, the Su-75 stealth fighter is not produced in large quantities and has no demand in the export market. The same applies to the Su-57, which, moreover, cannot boast of outstanding combat results in the sky over Ukraine. MBT T-14 "Armata" turned out to be expensive and overrated. In Russia, there were difficulties with its serial production. This failed program may have to be canceled. The production of the new generation PAK-DA bomber was also stopped and started again many times.

It is not known when this stealth aircraft will enter service. In addition, the Russian fleet does not have an active aircraft carrier, which is also quite sad. One of the big problems is morale. The Russians are amazed by the difficulties in confronting the defense forces of Ukraine, as well as the incredible number of victims and destroyed equipment.

Employees of various defense agencies are asking themselves whether they will retain the same level of national pride and prestige they enjoyed before the war. In addition, international sanctions have damaged defense supply chains. The pace of technological innovation has slowed to an inefficient level. Production conveyors are idle, and workers remain without work, not fulfilling planned indicators. There are no microprocessors from the USA, Europe or Japan in the country.

The only chance for the Russians to continue building advanced weapons systems is to rely on second-echelon countries to supply some components, despite sanctions. Such spare parts are of lower quality and are often delayed, if they reach Russia at all. Russia has too many weapon systems that are in use at the same time, and it is not easy to set priorities.

Should it focus on an army that needs a quick replacement of tanks and armored vehicles? And what about the navy and its need for new ships to replace destroyed ones, such as the Black Sea flagship "Moskva", which was considered one of the best ships in the fleet? Meanwhile, the Air Force also needs large investments in connection with the simultaneous development of the Su-57, Su-75 and PAK-DA. There is simply not enough time, money and resources for all this.

Russia depends on oil prices to maintain its revenues and channel them into war and defense purchases. But since the beginning of this year, the price of crude oil has fallen by 18%. Russia relies on China for hydrocarbon purchases, but these purchases may not be enough to support the defense industry. Does Russia have enough skilled workers? It is necessary to pay special attention to the recruitment and retention of highly qualified workers for the production of military equipment.

But because of the war, young, healthy men who could join the ranks of defense industry workers are fighting and dying in Ukraine. As a result, only elderly workers remain, who lack the stamina to perform physically demanding work. The war should be ended in order to train and prepare a new generation to work in military factories. Russia may not have enough funds to invest in all these programs. Trillions of rubles are needed to meet military needs.

"Production of 'metal products', which is expected to grow by 26. 4% in 2023 and 31. 6% in 2024, fell 1. 6% in September compared to the same period last year after rising 21. 2% in August," the Moscow Times reported. Production growth is slowing across the board, and more delays are ahead in the supply of valuable equipment.

"The Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences reported that 18 out of 24 subsectors of production, which collectively produce almost 80% of the country's goods, are now in a state of recession," the Moscow Times also notes. The Russian government will have to increase its budget deficit to finance military action, and the defense procurement sector may face a shortage of funds. All this is bad news for Putin.

In addition, the defense industry still retains remnants of the Soviet system. You will probably have to invent production quotas to please the "dear leader". This prevents the introduction of new production technologies. Factories are spread across the country, creating problems with efficiency and economies of scale. Scientific research and development are also far from the level that would enable the Russian defense industry to meet the 2030s with dignity.

There are still living remnants of the Soviet mentality, according to which everything "will turn out that way. " The Kremlin needs to encourage dual-purpose research at universities, but unlike the US, Russia has virtually no technology centers led by university scientists. Russia has a lot of work ahead of it.

The war is entering its fourth year with no end in sight, and defense enterprises are focused on the production of old models of tanks and armored personnel carriers, which is why the production of new military equipment is lagging behind. Problems with supply chains and reduced production rates create additional difficulties. The young, energetic workers who normally fill the ranks of the defense industry are either on the front line or have already died or been wounded in action.

This deprives Russia of a whole generation of workers. Sanctions will not be eased and finances will remain tight while the war of attrition continues. The defense industry is running out of steam, and Putin will have to ask whether he can produce enough of his Wunderwaffe to change the outcome of the war.

Rebuilding Russian arms production will take years, and that suits Ukraine, the United States and NATO, which expect to continue to pressure Putin and limit his country's production capabilities. Brent M. Eastwood is a doctor of science, author of the books "Don't Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy", "Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare" and others.