Kherson's silence. What happens in the region on the eve of the Counfield of the Armed Forces

What is happening in Kherson region is asked to remain silent in the General Staff. And so for a few weeks. Meanwhile, the invaders declared there "evacuation" of the population through the counter -offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. High Pilly, the Great and Little Alexandrovka, the Dry Pond, David Brid - in the list of de -occupied settlements of Kherson region.

According to the head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration Yaroslav Yanushevych, only in October of the Armed Forces 29 settlements were released, and since the beginning of a new wave of aggression of the Russian Federation - 75.

Kherson region for Russians is strategically important: capture and maintenance of these territories allows to have a land corridor in Crimea and On the delight of the whole south of Ukraine - Mykolaiv, Odessa regions, punching the road to the controlled Transnistria and Moldova. Therefore, from the very beginning, Russia threw large forces into the Kherson region - troops (with real combat experience) and new equipment.

However, their preliminary plan failed: Kherson was captured, but in the direction of Nikolaev the occupiers failed to advance. The forces of the Russian Federation were actually blocked on the Right Bank. It is difficult for them to stay there - it would be logical to go to the left bank, but obviously the Russians do not want to do this - they may be considered an unacceptable failure not only Kherson, but also small settlements in the north of the region and the Right Bank.

At the same time, the Ukrainian General Staff understand that Kherson and the Right Bank can be released by the end of the year. Self -raised US officials add confidence. One of them in an interview with CNN stated that the purpose of Ukraine was to release Kherson by the end of 2022 - ambitious, but possible.

And the British newspaper The Guardian described a statement by a collaborator Vladimir Saldo, who, on October 13, asked the Kremlin to "assist in organizing the departure of residents of the Kherson region", as a sign that Kherson can soon be occupied by the Russians.

If the Ukrainian army manages to enter the Dnieper, it can be used as a natural obstacle, and to defense the Odessa direction of the troops will be needed less - they can be transferred to other areas of the front, to take offensive actions in other directions. If this does not happen, then in the winter, apparently, the enemy will be able to accumulate forces (taking into account mobilization) and regrouped for further offensive in the spring.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine go on the Right Bank, in the direction of Beryslav - a settlement on the bank of the Dnieper, opposite Kakhovka. "Locals talk about a few serious hits in Beryslav and Kakhovka in recent days, aviation works. People are sitting in cellars, they are afraid. Someone says that Russians are leaving from settlements close to the front line," Anastasia, who has recently lived recently, says In Nova Kakhovka, and now communicates with relatives and monitors local publications.

"There is a successful promotion towards Snihurivka and Beryslav. After the blockade of the Crimean bridge of the invaders' troops on the right bank of the Dnieper have problems with the transportation of ammunition and logistics organization. The problem for them is the rotation of personnel. , and prove the quality and number of rocket-bombing strikes on the bases of the Russians,-says military expert Dmitry Snegirev.

-Only in the last day the Ukrainian army worked 15 aircraft and 230 fire tasks in the areas of concentration at that time. the points and means of enemy air defense. " As a result, the expert confident, the real preconditions for the successful de -occupation of the right bank of the Kherson region are created. Snegirev says that the Russians try to minimize the successful counterpart of the Armed Forces, but unsuccessfully.

"In the case of successful nature of the Armed Forces promotion by the settlements of David Brida and Dudchany, it is about the possibility of an operational environment of the Russian group with a total number of about 15 thousand invaders," continues Snegirev. "And the Russians really evaluate the situation in which they found themselves. The army of the Russian Federation of Kherson region is simply impossible.

" "When the defenders of Ukraine will take control of Berislav and hydroelectric power plants, they will be able to clean the territory from the occupiers. .

At the same time, the deputy director of the Center for Middle Eastern research, the head of the projects in the Kherson region Sergey Danilov says Focus that, despite the optimistic forecasts, Russia continues to accumulate troops, equipment, fuel, to create inventories, as well as counter -attacks on the right bank, trying to improve their tactical conditions . "Obviously, the Russian political task is to keep at least the front line that is now at any cost," Danilov adds.

Kherson political scientist Volodymyr Molchanov, answering questions about the possible escape of Russians from Kherson, notes that the officers' families have long gone. "And here's what the command has gone, it's just a rumor," he says. "Most likely, the command level of brigades is on the right bank. A lot of mobilized, including reserve commanders. Unknown. settings. They are trying to learn on landfills, including under Kherson. They are often covered there.

On the one hand, their mortality grows because they are not even able to mask normally, on the other hand, the numerical advantage that Russians now have, seriously complicating fighting. " In addition, collaborators try to campaign people, join their "army", promise monetary rewards, financial support.

For example, the residents of Kherson region are trying to create a battalion named after Vasyl Margelov (Soviet general, who was released by Kherson during the Second World War), perhaps under the guidance of curators from the Russian Federation. "Men who enter the battalion promise that they will not participate in the fighting, they will be assigned to the performance of internal functions, the protection of checkpoints.

People refuse, - says the first deputy chairman that the Russians offered to enter the battalion for people who were detained and arrested before the war and who are in prison - in exchange for amnesty. There were also refusing. They cannot create a battalion and may start a semi -voluntary mobilization to provide a good report for Moscow. " But in any case, experts say, this crowd is unlikely to resist the massive breakthrough of the Armed Forces.

"Also, the Russians are very limited due to lack of transport and because this transport will be defeated at crossings, in particular through the Ingulets River. Twisting from the left to the right bank and vice versa, even if they accumulate reserves, is almost impossible," Molchanov continues . Meanwhile, the self -proclaimed deputy chairman of the Kherson region administration Kirill Stremousov really recorded a video address to the residents of occupied Kherson.

He said: there is a threat of a front breakthrough of the Armed Forces in the Kherson direction, so it is necessary to move to a "safe distance". According to Kherson, Stramousov himself again decided to go to Genichesk. Local people say that they have reduced those who distribute humanitarian aid. They go to the left bank, temporarily or permanently, the clerks of two Russian banks who entered the Kherson region, representatives of Rosgvardia and FSB.

Their presence decreased significantly on Kherson streets. Someone associates it with the offensive of the Ukrainian army, and someone - with an increase in the number of blows on infrastructure and civilian objects occupied by the occupiers. "The Russians give fuzzy and incomprehensible signals about deportation or evacuation. The scale of this phenomenon is difficult to evaluate," Danilov continues.

"Indeed, some part has gone, maybe these are our citizens who are waiting for the Armed Forces, but are afraid that when they were released Children will be dangerous. There is no explanation for all these actions and there is no accurate information. All this is based on rumors. But I follow the point of view that such propaganda tries to oppose themselves to us, the troops of liberation. They want them to be considered defenders of the Kherson interests . Otherwise, the robbery continues.

" Several surveyed experts and locals note that in the early stages of occupation, the collaborators tried to seize the enterprises and launch them under their own control. They are currently dismantling expensive equipment and taken to the Crimea and the Rostov region. "Carry out boilers from schools, robbed and exported oil factory in Oleshki. The whole area continues to be theft The fact that they are going to run away, and possibly, the logic is: "I can rob, then why not do it.

Both the first and the second is likely, " - says Danilov. Anastasia from New Kakhovka says that today the locals are very afraid that Russians, retreating, can blow up a dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in the occupied Nova Kakhovka. But experts assure that the occupiers Almost washed away the city and most of the left -bank part of Kherson. And the Russians in Nova Kakhovka now have an army headquarters.

In this case, Kherson in this case is almost threatened - perhaps an increase in water with flooding of private homes on the island of the ship. But this is not a disaster. In addition, it is technically difficult - it will have to put huge charges of explosives there, ”Molchanov says. At the same time, the expert says that the Armed Forces in Kherson region have trumps.

Some of them are to artificially raise the water level below the dam by damage to the gateway canal in the reservoir or the descent of water in other reservoirs higher. "You can raise water levels three meters higher in the area of ​​Nova Kakhovka, Cossack and one and a half meters in Kherson. This will be enough for all their crossings to be either blurred or flooded," explains Molchanov.