The end of the grain agreement, the strikes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on ports. Does Ukraine threaten export and currency loss

"Exports of goods in July fell to the worst importance since the beginning of a full -scale war. According to the NBU, the foreign trade deficit in July has deteriorated to $ 2. 84 billion. This is the second worst indicator since the beginning of the Great War. Commodity exports decreased to $ 2. 22 billion. This is the worst indicator from the beginning of a full -scale invasion.

The reasons for the deterioration are obvious: Russia's exit from the grain agreement, after which Russian terrorists began to actively fire port infrastructure, including the ports of Downabah, and trade embargo on our main agricultural products by neighboring EU countries. After the loss of a large part of metallurgical assets, Ukraine is now more dependent on agricultural exports, which, together with food, reaches 63% of total exports.

At the same time, in July, the exports of "Agrararka" decreased to $ 1. 29 billion. This is a quarter less than an average of the 2nd quarter and 40% less than in the 1st quarter this year. At the same time, imports of goods continue to be actively restored, responding to the revival of domestic consumer and investment demand. Since the beginning of 2023, the average monthly imports of goods have exceeded $ 5 billion, which almost corresponds to pre -war indicators.

In the structure of commodity imports, the most increased supply of machines, equipment, vehicles and equipment (+2. 67 billion don. For 7 months of 2023 against the same period last year), which account for almost 30% of all imports. The negative foreign trade balance of goods in January - July 2023 amounted to 14. 8 billion dols. As for services, in July, we also have a slight increase in the negative trade balance compared to the previous two months.

However, since the 2nd quarter of this year, the situation in this part of the balance of payments has improved significantly. It was, first of all, by reducing the costs of Ukrainian residents, including Forced migrants, abroad, accounting for the categories of "travel" and are the largest item of import of services. As for the largest export article, IT - in July they were 3% more than a year ago.

However, 7 months since the beginning of the year, exports of computer services are lagging behind 8% ($ 0. 35 billion) from the same 2022 period. The negative foreign trade balance of services for January - July 2023 amounted to $ 5. 7 billion. Thus, July recorded the maintenance of trends in the deterioration of the foreign trade balance, which lasts the last 4 months.

However, the outflow of currency on trade operations continues to be covered with a reserve, first of all, significant revenues of international assistance. The receipt of external financial support remains the main stabilizing factor in maintaining currency stability for the first 7 months of 2023, Ukraine has attracted $ 28. 1 billion from external sources (loans + grants). (including $ 4. 45 billion in July), while payments for external debt were insignificant.

These funds, together with the wages from non -residents (for 7 months, +6. 9 billion don) are the main source that allowed to compensate for: as a result, a positive balance of payments in July amounted to $ +2. 58 billion. , for 7 months of 2023 + $ 10. 4 billion (against the minus $ 8. 4 billion in the same period last year). International reserves (together with the IMF loan) have increased by $ 13. 2 billion since the beginning of the year. To the record $ 41.

7 billion The pressure on the balance of payments remains significant. Due to Russian aggression, occupation of part of the territories, daily destruction, loss of assets, complicated logistics, embargo on the import of agricultural products by neighboring countries, foreign trade balance has deteriorated to historically record levels. Exports of goods in July fell to the worst importance since the beginning of a full -scale war. The shortage on the side of trade in goods continues to expand.

The outflow of currency under the operations of the private sector, although significantly diminished against last year, continues to wash the currency, especially because of the increase in foreign exchange cash with the off -state system.

As long as the war is ongoing, the completion of all procedures for reserving and guaranteeing financial assistance to donors for 2024 in such conditions for external financial support remains the main stabilizing factor of payments, the increase in international reserves and currency reserves in the near future.