"Putin will not survive without his post." About the collapse of the Russian Federation without nuclear war and allies of Ukraine surrounded by a dictator - an interview with Ponomaryov

According to him, this is a camp of Putin -like -minded people in Russian political elites. And even if Putin disappears tomorrow, these people will ensure the existence of the regime and do everything possible, for example, to prevent Putin not to give the Hague if he is alive. 86 - it's not much, right? - (Laughs - ed. ) I agree, but I think that all this is very conditional. First, I do not see any option when Putin can leave his post and stay alive. I do not see this option at all.

And secondly, when Putin disappears in one way or another, of course, no unity in his environment will remain. They will quarrel with each other and 86 Russians will not be there. - And what will separate them? - Power, of course, resources, money. They will be determined who is the main one who should manage the country. There are different groups.

There is a group of [billionaire and friend of Putin Yuri] Kovalchuk, is - [close associate of the dictator, CEO of Rostekh Sergiy Rostakh], is - [the head of the board of directors of Rosnaftogaz Igor] Sechin. Everyone will say that they are the main. They will bargain for their influence and the opportunity to earn and further. - You said an interesting thing: you do not imagine that Putin is losing and still alive.

For him, this limit is already passed when he can provide a safe old age but to give power? - Of course. On February 24, this red line was passed. I just don't understand how? Any subsequent Russian leader or what will exist on the site of the Russian Federation will have to somehow establish contacts with the West and all those problems that have accumulated. If you belong to Putin's environment, it will simply be impossible. They need to do something to earn a certain indulgence.

To do this, Putin's chairman is the best gift for the West. - You also have heard this thesis, they say, the countries of the West, when they provide support to Ukraine, in particular, with regard to weapons, they are afraid of escalation and the fact that Russia will break up unexpectedly, and the authorities will be in the hands of uncontrolled people. You have listed several. And there is worse than Putin, whom the event is afraid of? - There are no such.

The West understands that those who belong to the environment are already selected, predictable, most of them are weak; And they will not threaten someone. What scares them? They are frightened by the likelihood of coming to power of people such as [Igor terrorist (Strelkov)] Girkin, for example, or the collapse of the country. Then on the site of one nuclear country can be 20. And who will manage these countries, no one knows.

Even if 19 will be normal and one is not, that's enough to solve nuclear war. It is because of this that they are very intimidated. I think that we do not need to cause the collapse of Russia now. We do not know how to happen in the future. There may be areas that decide to separate from the Russian Federation. But when we call it, we scare a lot of our allies. This is a bad story.

We need to make sure that the peoples of the Russian Federation who now live in the North Caucasus, in Tatarstan, Yakutia, in Buryatia, are our allies in the fight against the central power of the Russian Federation, against autocracy and against Vladimir Putin personally. This is 100% possible. - They are afraid that Girkin or like him can come to power. And in Russian society there is such a request? - There is certain. What does Russian propaganda do now? It is now such people.

They do not promote Grikin personally because they are also afraid of the Kremlin, but in general, such an agenda they move forward. Now, I believe that there are 15% very anti -war -minded people, but there are just 15% very well -tuned. And the very huge swamp that exists between them. Our task is to work with this swamp, but to remember that there are 15%, what are real criminals. - I wanted to ask about Ramzan Kadyrov separately.

Ukrainian journalists made a report from a pre -trial detention center where Russian prisoners of war were detained. The Ministry of Justice said that the Kadyrian army was in the first place to exchange, the Russian side is interested first. There were many testimonies not confirmed by the Ukrainian authorities that people who seemed to be able to pull out of captivity were given in exchange for the Kadyriv military.

I also drew attention when Putin met with Turkish President Erdogan, I took Kadyrov with him. Where are these sentiments to Kadyrov and to his private army? - Meeting with Erdogan was a request from Kadyrov himself. Traditionally, he has a bad relationship with Erdogan. Kadyrov constantly rides back and forth with the Arab Emirates. And he is all right there, but with Turkey the connection is bad.

Turkey provides shelter to many Chechen and other Caucasian fighters who fought against the Russian Federation; They feel safe there. And even the very fact of Erdogan's meeting with Kadyrov is a strong signal that Moscow sends to all these people: “Don't think we have forgotten you. We remember you. " As for Kadyrov as a whole. It's hard to say whether it is Putin's sincere attitude. There is some part in his mood.

Due to the fact that Kadyrov's father Akhmat played a huge role in the fact that Chechnya remains in the Russian Federation. He switched to Russia at a critical moment when it was very necessary for Putin. Because of this, the Second Chechen War stopped. Putin feels obliged by a cadirov senior who died through an explosion at a stadium in a thunderstorm. Putin believes that this is his fault, that he could not save his life. Therefore, his son, as a certain debt, which Putin gives off Kadyrov.

There is also a more rational story. Kadyrov - a guarantor that Chechnya remains loyal to Russia remains in the Russian Federation. There are mutual relations here. Moscow, the Kremlin defending Kadyrov inside Chechnya, and he has many different enemies because of that betrayal of his father, and Ramzan himself fought against the Russian army for two Chechen wars. If Putin dies, then Kadyrov will have many different problems.

If something happens with Putin, I think Kadyrov will be the first to declare Chechnya's independence. For him, this will be the only way to preserve himself and lead this movement that will start after Putin does not. - The second part of the explanation was more clear to me, because I do not really believe that Putin has conscience. - No. Putin is a real bandit. He has a lot of different sentimental feelings because of this. This is a common story for all bandits.

It is because Kadyrov is so loyal and he has highly emphasized it with all his Caucasian temperament and continues to emphasize this that Putin is being done. I would not appreciate it as a sincere relationship. I am 100% sure that Kadyrov will betray Putin when the time will come. -Estonia Prime Minister Kai Callas called for to stop the issuance of tourist visas to Russian citizens for trips to the EU.

She said that visiting Europe was human right, and privileges; that airplane with Russia is terminated, which means that countries such as Finland, Estonia, Latvia carry all the burden from the fact that Russian citizens come to them. Also, in an interview with a foreign media, Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on the event to close their territories for Russian citizens.

I see the reaction of Russian political refugees, which are now in Europe: they are outraged by such statements, they say that Zelensky cannot reach Putin, so it is reaching us. What do you think about it? - I support the president of Zelensky here, because many times I said that it was necessary for the Russians to stay inside Russia and fought there with Putin's regime.

When there is a very easy way to give up fighting and go away from the country, many people who do not even threaten anything, they just don't like what is happening inside the Russian Federation, use this simple way in their lives. I do not like this. If good words do not work, then you should use pressure and force people to resist this regime. This is my position. When we do something from a practical point of view, we always need to use "knut and gingerbread".

That is not only a negative impact, but also positive. I support the ban on providing tourist visas and the maximum complication of emigration with the Russian Federation, but we need to provide protection and shelter to those who have done something. They need to know: if they now throw Molotov's cocktail into the military enlistment office, organize a large rally, some other way will make something significant against the regime, then there will be some protection.

And if they need to evacuate the territory of the country, then we will accept them I consider it important. This will be an incentive to do something. You need to earn your departure ticket. - In one of your last interviews, you said that there is no most opposition stratum of the Russian population now than the Russian government. You say that the signal of desire to negotiate was sent by a person from Putin's immediate surroundings.

You cannot name the name, but you convince no one would believe it, but it is a pillar of regime that lacks confidence to get to another level. Can you tell more about it? - I can't, but it's true. There are so many people now who think of something to do something. Again, and with ordinary citizens, certain people have a mood to escape from the territory of the Russian Federation and find a shelter somewhere. Others have a mood to just go somewhere inside, wait for everything to change.