The success of Ukraine and the Putin dilemma: whether a truce will come to Easter

Before these negotiations, journalists asked me that it could be considered the most positive result of these negotiations. I replied that it could be a common position with the United States on ceasefire as the main path of completion of the Russian-Ukrainian war, as well as the US decision to fully restore military assistance and provide us with intelligence and satellite information. As for the second probable result, I expressed some doubts.

Americans can remove some restrictions on weapons, but not all to keep the opportunity to press us in the process of peaceful talks. But both positive negotiation results in Jedda were announced after they were completed.

I assume that the reason not only in the constructiveness of the Ukrainian side, which has also had a positive impact on the US negotiations, but also that the decision on weapons is a tool of pressure on the Russians: either agree to ceasefire, or the US will restore Ukraine's military support.

Now there is every reason to consider negotiations in Saudi Arabia successful for the Ukrainian side, including because they have not confirmed (in any case) alarming expectations that Americans can bring us to peace on Russian conditions. And now Putin is a difficult choice. According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the ball is now on the side of the Russians.

The hysterical reaction in Russian social networks to the results of negotiations in Jeid also indirectly indicates the success of these negotiations for Ukraine. In Muscovy, it was clearly not expected. If the ball is on the side of the Russians, how will the Kremlin answer? There is a complex dilemma for Putin - Ukraine or Trump.

Yesterday, he apparently hoped to get both Trump to persuade Ukraine to surrender, to restore control of Ukraine eventually, and in parallel to agree with Trump on different tactical, and possibly strategic issues. And now you have to choose. Trump wants a quick peace (ceasefire) in Ukraine, which the Ukrainian leadership agrees. And Putin must be chosen.

If he still wants a tactical-strategic union with Trump to strengthen his geopolitical positions and weaken China, then one must agree to the ceasefire and claim Ukraine to capitrate Ukraine. If he still seeks victory over Ukraine, he must refuse to stop the ceasefire and continue the war against Ukraine. But this is highly likely to destroy his bet on a big game with Trump, which he seems to have some hopes.

I think that Putin will not have a clear answer (neither positive nor negative) to the supply of a truce from the US and Ukraine. The Kremlin can make a number of counter -requirements to Ukraine (to conclude an agreement on ceasefire) and at the same time insist at the beginning of peace talks about the conclusion of a major peace agreement. And in the course of these negotiations, attempts will continue to blame Ukraine of reluctant to end the war and put us in front of Trump.

The issue of the end of the war has not yet been resolved. But in any case, we are expected to have a sharp intensification of the negotiation process. In the coming days, these will be negotiations with Russia with Russia, and then the direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia may begin through the US. Trump seems to try to stop the fire for the Easter holidays and make it the main achievement of the first 100 days of his presidency.