War in the Middle East, the course and the influence of monopolists: what will happen to the prices for gasoline and DP in December

The average gasoline and diesel prices for Ukrainian gas stations have been declining since the beginning of November. Unlike a car, which continues to beat records due to the blocking of the Ukrainian-Polish border. However, despite maintaining a favorable price situation in foreign markets, gasoline and diesel prices may not be pleasantly surprised. Gasoline and diesel have lost about 1. 5 UAH per liter since the beginning of November.

Thus, the average price of A-95 at the gas station of the country decreased from 55. 52 UAH/l to 54. 37 UAH/l, and DP-from 55. 79 UAH/l to 54. 33 UAH/l as of November 27. Gasoline is cheaper from the end of October, and the SEA - from the second decade of November. Meanwhile, car gas continues to rise. Focus found out what fuel prices in Ukraine to expect in the future.

The first reason for reducing gasoline and diesel prices in Ukraine is the checkery of oil and petroleum products in international markets. Yes, Brent oil from a maximum of about $ 98 in September 2023 fell to $ 79. 9 per barrel. "This resource began to displace the resource that was purchased at previous prices. Gasoline and diesel was brought to a month. Store today is problematic, since some oil depots are destroy Discounts for more than 8 UAH per liter, ”said Energy Expert Leonid Kosyanchuk.

The second factor that affects the figures at the gas station is the dollar to the hryvnia. It is known to retain stability. "We buy it for currency, clear at the exchange rate, sell for the hryvnia. We then buy currency again and buy the next resource. Therefore, the hryvnia exchange rate is extremely quickly and acutely affected by pricing. Because the resource is purchased twice a month, and the currency is a week .

And the situation with a car remains a pathova - a strike of Polish carriers, which blocks the supply of fuel, continues. And it is impossible to quickly refocus deliveries. "The sea was taken away (the blockade of the Russians - ed. ), The western border was blocked, and you do not eat a lot of rail, because there are problems - a change of wheel pairs, etc. ," - explained the specialist. Gasoline and diesel are now in the surplus, it states Leonid Kosyanchuk.

However, according to Prime, Dmitry Leushkin, director of the Prime Group of companies, should not be discarded. "It can all start on the diesel. World prices for petroleum products are volatile. They are very dependent on the statements of the first persons of the states and hostilities on the cost of gasoline in December will affect both the external situation and the NBU policy. "It is very difficult to predict how the foreign market will be put under the Christmas tree. action.

And we see that today is burning not only in Ukraine but also in the Middle East - the war between Israel and Hamas. But today I see the potential of cheaper gasoline and diesel to 2 - 4 UAH, depending on the network, "Kosyanchuk said . The situation with the auto gas could be avoided. In fact, with the introduction of new requirements for customs clearance of petroleum products, we have closed other ways of supply of this fuel on our own.

"Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria we ourselves blocked a change in customs rules," the expert said. Experts suggest that such innovations are traced to the struggle for the liquefied gas market - medium and small market operators are displaced by powerful players who have their own imports. "The gas situation has already shown what the policy of reducing and destroying a small importer is leading," Leushkin is convinced.

"Complicated the passage of customs procedures on liquefied gas under the flag of the fight against the Russian resource, but there is a resource from the United States. It cannot be cleared for weeks, because propane and butane receives separately and obtain a certificate of origin of the manufacturer - they do not understand that we are from them We want, and on the other, it is simply a complicated procedure.

Further, our manufacturers are auctioned, where prices for about two UAH are higher than retail. That is, to buy liquefied gas for two hryvnias more expensive than selling, " - said Kosyanchuk. The monopolization of the market will lead to a rise in price of fuel, experts warn in this way, small operators who do not have their own production and import, have already started to close the columns. The enlargement of the operators will lead to a rise in price of fuel.

"The monopolization of the market leads to unpredictable price conflicts. It is easier to negotiate. That is, today gasoline or DP can buy from 48 UAH to 54 UAH, choosing where it is better, then the choice will not be at all," - summarized the expert. We will remind, at some gas stations there are no liquefied gas. The deficit is caused by the blockade of the Polish border by carriers, which is why the Ukrainian fuel market is forced to refocus from car supplies to railways.