Kharkiv under the blow: how to save the city from the mental attack of Moscow

Recently, talks about Russia's intention have increased. Military analyst Alexei Kopitko claims that from a military point of view it is unrealistic, but for better resistance of the city it takes a prospect. "Bild" said that by 2026 the Russian Federation would try to seize Kharkiv (as well as Dnipro and Zaporozhye). So here. Because for some time he summarized a number of observations. The logic and the fact that this thesis is strung is schematically. Since 1991, Kharkiv has passed a few shocks.

In the USSR, the city was an important imperial scientific, technical and industrial center. Everything that served the scale of the empire (especially the MIC) was unnecessary. The city lost 200 thousand population (very productive) and passed through painful adaptation. Instead of high -tech industries, the Barabashovo market appeared. Until the mid-2000s, the city was clinging, finding a new mission that was largely related to contact with Russia.

In 2014, some of these ties were cut off, some weakened. From the largest logistics hub Kharkiv increasingly turned into a dead end. The collapse did not occur due to the influx of a large mass of the population from Donetsk and Luhansk region. It was an injection that helped to go through a shock. Plus the records of the airport, which provided sufficient comfort and mobility for a contingent with high income. In 2022 the situation worsened sharply. There are trends that are on the surface.

First, it got up and came out IT business. Many are irrevocable. Those who are still preparing. And this is the most important part of the community. Second, the education sector is threatened. While there is inertia, but students (especially foreign), and teachers will inevitably look for an alternative. This is another key group. Third, there are many businesses where you need to develop something or just with a long cycle, froze or gone/leave. People are in demand professions, such as doctors.

Temporary artificial nutrition in the form of PITF military distorted the picture, it will be even more difficult. In general, a large part of the most productive population that has formed the urban environment, has left the city or is in the stage of acceptance that they have to leave. Not today, so tomorrow. Not tomorrow, so the day after tomorrow. The needs of defense will provide the influx of the new population - the military. However, they will not be enough to compensate for the outflow.

Plus the military creates a different environment. Some defense will move. But it is probably not production, but repair and similar. Even if the war is frozen tomorrow, Kharkiv will remain a deaf angle on the border with the Mordor, which will hang. As a result, the city in which many Kharkiv residents are accustomed to living and which was a magnet for several regions. Kharkiv will cease to exist in its current form. The environment will change.

It will gradually turn into an analogue of Sumy (also located 40 km from the border from the Russian Federation). A beautiful city - but another. The Russians throw out the opinion: well, say you are bravely defending, and tomorrow the war will pause. And then what? And will you live in such a city with your children? And if you do not, why rest on? Gingerbread integration into the EU and NATO is no longer convincing.

More precisely, many will choose personal integration and will not fight for ephemeral integration together with a city that has a sad perspective. Until another prospect is marked. 6. While they were reflected in handy means, all this reflection of the future had to be kept with you so as not to blur the focus. Now you need to give people some tips. Because the Russians actively came to this lawn. To preserve and ensure the development of a half -meter city, a big idea is needed.

I would be looking for an idea in a true and understandable industry - Kharkiv ties with Russia. Kharkiv should turn into one of the main centers of work with the Russian threat to the EU and NATO, into one of the centers of moderation of what is happening in Russian space. In Kharkiv, there is basic intellectual capital that can be increased, and an undeniable advantage is the lack of a language barrier. In Kharkiv, the International Tribunal should be deployed to persecute Russian criminals.

In Kharkiv, a filtration tool should be built, which the Russian is good and which is not. In Kharkiv, all international infrastructure for sanctions against Russia, asset confiscation, etc. should be grounded. In Kharkiv, the Think Tanka'i Analysis of Russia, which will serve the western capitals, needs to be deployed. Instead, the slag, which has now been suppressed from all kinds of Sovietists and Kremlinologists.

As a negotiation option, there is a thesis about the demilitarized zone per 100-200 km deep into the Russian Federation/RB. From the very beginning, Kharkiv should be disputed as the monitoring / management center of this zone, if created. One of the applied questions for any guarantee dialogue is to create conditions for resuscitation of the airport. To open a city for foreigners. Plus, one -way logistics is a sentence.

Such ideas can be thrown away, combined and built into some logic, timeline, "if - then" and so on. The main thing is that these ideas help fix the desired scale. The Kremlin will not shout "cheers" and can increase the pressure. The chip is that they will in any case increase the pressure. Difference: Whether Kharkiv has to appear on the EU / NATO interest map or not. This will determine the scale of a resource that can be attracted to protect and restore.

If you do not think in this direction, much will still be realized. Because there is a request for work with the Russian space. But it will be implemented, conditionally, in Lviv. Because in Lviv it is nice. There will be a good peace and a chance to normalize with the Russian Federation after a while - Kharkiv will occupy a niche of contact. Will a bad peace and monkeys with a nuclear bomb for 40 km? Seoul also lives so much. But it is included in the system of interests and guarantees.