The war in long is not in favor of Russia. Why in the future Moscow is inevitably losing

An attempt to play long will bring Russia to a catastrophe, Blogger Sergey Gromnenko is convinced. However, if you keep in mind not the prospect of 3-5 years, and a longer long-in 10-12 years. There are people who say that Russia is "long". I say that in the strategic perspective, a long war will kill Russia. Who is right? All. The fact is that for most commentators, "long war" is 3-5 years, because high-intensity conflicts usually do not last longer.

From my bell tower, "strategic perspective" is at least 10-12 years, because only then do certain historical patterns manifest. So, since in Russia, purely arithmetically more people, tanks, missiles and money than in Ukraine, in the "Long War" for 3-5 years, Moscow would have been stupidly choking Kiev if they came together in the hell. Even if you had to exchange in a 3: 1 ratio. But fortunately, Ukraine is not alone, it is supported by the Allies (however, Russia too).

And this support is enough to crush the initial Russian advantage. And at a distance of 10-12 years, Russia will no longer save either old reserves nor new production. The year 2024 will be flushed for both countries, because there will be some processes that are launched between 2008 and 2014 (which I will not write now, and then they will say that the topic is not disclosed). And even if the Kremlin stands this time, the next cycle - by 2035/36 - will definitely be the last for him.