Shutdown for a long time. What will be with electricity through Russia's rocket terror tomorrow and winter

However, despite the enormous successes of the Ukrainian army, some of the missiles of the Russians struck goals, mainly about energy infrastructure, which have been closely attention to the aggressor country over the last month. According to the adviser to the head of the Presidential Office Kirill Tymoshenko, as a result of the shelling on November 15, 15 objects of energy infrastructure in different regions of Ukraine were recorded on November 15.

Because of this, Ukrenergo operator had to enter emergency shutdowns urgently. They touched on many regions of the country - Kyiv, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovograd, Lviv and other regions. "Rashists are trying to turn off the light in the country again. In the course of a new large -scale rocket attack, the energy infrastructure is damaged. The attack is ongoing, we cannot yet be called the full extent In the northern and central regions.

In this regard, there are full emergency shutdowns of all categories of consumers. Special schedules of emergency shutdowns were introduced in Kiev, " - commented on November 15 at Ukrenergo. Power lines, substations and transformers are the equipment required to provide electricity transfer (or transport) from generation (manufacturer) to consumers-Ukrainian and industrial, business entities.

After the missile shelling of the Russians, which began in October, it was on the country's energy infrastructure that some experts noted that Russian energy is clearly involved in planning such attacks. "We are sure that the goals for the Russian military helped to choose Russian energy. Ukrenergo substations are complex high -voltage objects of 6 to 40 ha.

We need to be a specialist, an engineer to know where to hit maximum losses," Said Alexei Brecht in the recent interview with ThePage of Ukrenergo. Once there is a rocket on a substation or high -voltage line, power deficiency occurs in the power transportation system. In this case, Ukrenergo operator disables the areas to which the required volume will not be obtained due to a clear deficit, which has led to damage to any object.

Let us clarify again: it is not a shortage of electricity production, but a shortage of capacity of electrical networks. "We have electricity now, but it is difficult to deliver it to consumers through damage to substations and power lines - supplying reserve lines, and these lines are designed for smaller electricity volumes. Therefore, shutdown. Imports of electricity into the country may not be received, but it will not make the weather It will come unevenly.

The deficit in the system is about 1-1. 5 GW, "-says the expert of the Institute of Energy Strategies Yuriy Korolchuk. Dmitry Sakharuk, executive director Dmitry Sakharuk, has recently reported a shortage of 1-1. 5 GW. Focus experts note that consumers' shutdowns from electricity will not stop until the full capacity of damaged substations, transformers, lines is restored, and all damaged objects damaged by rockets have been completed.

However, unfortunately, in the case of regular new attacks by the Russians on the country's grid (and as shown yesterday, November 15, and 90 missiles - shellings do not end) it is not possible to bring all that has been failed earlier. There have already been cases of repeated blows to where the injuries have been successfully eliminated. Some objects are not able to quickly repair because the necessary equipment has not yet been delivered. "Destroyed transport routes are networks.

Even if the attacks are over today, the month is required to restore normal electricity transportation. More or less normal. But in some regions, consumers will be switched off in a month. Damage is very significant, some of the equipment that is destroyed It requires a month for manufacture, it needs to be found, and it costs tens of millions of dollars, so it is a difficult story, " - said the director of the Energy Research Center Alexander Kharchenko Focus.

In such a situation, energy repairs are carried out where the equipment is needed, but with every new damage, the need for electricity savings is increasing. Only consumers can guarantee the safety of such savings as quickly and efficiently as possible. Therefore, according to experts, shutdowns will continue. Even if the attacks on energy objects are suddenly over, the moon is needed to restore normal electricity transportation.

Particularly long -term shutdowns can be in the center and in the east of Ukraine - in regions with the highest number of damaged by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of substations and transformers. Including long -term disconnections in the capital of Ukraine, especially in areas with high levels of energy consumption - these are densely populated areas of the left -bank Kiev (Darnytsky, Desnyansky, Dniprovsky).

"Disconnection - savings, shutdowns are saving, it is a method that guarantees a decrease in consumption. They disconnect where it is necessary to balance the load of the grid so that there is no excessive load on transformers, in large areas it is more often necessary to reduce the imbalance, excessively populated areas overload the network, Therefore, they are disconnected, " - said Denis Sakva, Senior Analyst Dragon Capital.

According to Ukrenergo, after the shelling on November 15, the most difficult situation in the west of Ukraine, as well as in the central and northeastern regions. "UKRERNOGO power system was used to stabilize the power system. This made it possible to prevent the country's complete defect. Energy immediately began to restore the power of consumers and damaged networks and power plants," - said Vladimir Kudrytsky.

He explained that the next few days will be difficult - cooling is approaching, electricity consumption will increase, respectively, and the load on the network will increase. Experts try to avoid pleasant forecasts for the winter. Already rarely there are statements that in a couple of weeks "everything will be repaired". While under the sight of Russian missiles, power companies make the most possible to save energy and provide the population with at least periodically supply of electricity.

Unfortunately, new strikes of Russian terrorists by substations and transformers in Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Lviv and other regions are more than probable. In addition, during the disadvantage, the electricity consumption is increasing, which additionally affects the networks. Therefore, from winter, everyone is waiting only for regular problems and, as a consequence, long -lasting consumers.

"If you can predict the schedule of attacks with exact places of hits, I will be able to answer that we are waiting for us in the winter. It is possible to predict that on November 15, there will be an attack of 100 missiles, no one could. could. We still have no accurate data on the results of this attack. Nobody can say for sure that in winter, ”says Alexander Kharchenko.

Due to the threat of new shelling and, as a consequence, high risks for millions of Ukrainians to get rid of not only light in winter, but also heat with water began to evacuate. In particular, evacuation from Kiev. However, experts skeptically evaluate such intentions of local authorities. "They (the local authorities of Kiev, - focus) are considering one of the scenarios - evacuation, but how three million to take out, it is difficult for me to imagine," - said Denis Sakva.

And according to Oleksandr Kharchenko, no evacuation can be discussed at all, since the network is seriously damaged throughout the country, that is, places where three million people will receive light and warmth, can not be found in such circumstances. The serious consequences of new rocket strikes of Russians are already understood by residents of Kyiv region today, where in some areas the shutdowns lasted 12 hours.

"Evacuation where? The network is damaged both in the west and in the east of Ukraine. The greatest damage - in frontline areas, there are really people to leave. Kherson, released parts of Kharkiv region, Bakhmut - everything is destroy They talk about Kyiv, sounds like panic and absurd. I do not see the meaning of such evacuation - not damaged high -voltage networks in Ukraine, ”says Alexander Kharchenko.

He reminds: The first wave of missile attacks in October damaged the net , and in some western regions, there are fewer shutdowns. Kyiv and the region, according to the expert, are today the regions where energy infrastructure is most affected by the shelling. And therefore, long-lasting electricity shutdowns-neither today nor in December. When Ukraine manages to reflect new rocket attacks on substations and lamps as effectively as possible, fan shutdowns can last 4-6 hours a day, and in some re.

Gions of the country even 2-3 hours a day. If the Russians continue to fire those objects that will be repaired in the next two weeks, then shutdown in December is likely to reach 8-12 hours a day, and sometimes longer-depends on the region, the level of load on the network and the condition, the condition In which there is energy infrastructure in a particular area. At the time of preparation of this material, the author of this article did not have electricity on November 15 . . .