Russia lost Turkey. Who and what benefit is from the change of power in Syria

And, it is extremely important, to complete the surgery against Kurds, if possible, by pushing the "western border" of Kurdistan for 50-70 km to the east. The situation looks like this from other sides. US - "stay with their own. " More precisely, not at all: no one claims their control area. But Turkey intends to significantly reduce the impact (in particular, on the formation of a new government) of Kurds. That is, to weaken the main pro -American force in the country.

Iran was one of the most active participants in the process. And he tried to participate (with the help of his proxy with Hezbolla) in the war to the last. But at the same time he was active in talks with Turkey about the future of Syria. It is enough to say that the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry visited Ankara immediately after the fall of Aleppo. Arabian monarchies. Paradoxically, they will somewhat strengthen their positions.

The opposition groups in the south (and their allies, among friends, Christians) "began" began the uprising, which led to the fall of Damascus. In the end, these detachments, not HTSh or Syrian Turks, were mainly included in the capital. Russia - loses its influence, but retains a chance to even stay in Syria. However, on new conditions, in the format of one of the forces of "second order".

Thus, the contours of the new government will largely determine Ankara with the share of the influence of the Arabian monarchies and possibly Iran. Why not the Russian Federation? And because unlike the listed external forces, she made only one bet, working with Assad. Which, by the way, is surprising, given her attempts to work with several groups at the same time in "problematic" African countries. The media already discusses the issue of future Russian military bases in Syria.

Yes, their evacuation will complicate surgery in Africa. But they will not make them impossible. But if Turkey still creates a stable government and it lasts at least a year, the consequences can be extremely interesting. It is not about military force, but conditionally about metal structures. More precisely, about pipelines. The first project - Arab Gas Pipeline - was thought of as a gas pipeline connecting Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and even Israel.

First of all, it was handed over in 2003. But the construction of the Homs branch - the territory of Turkey has never begun. Therefore, control over Homs for Turkey is extremely important - you can start "pull the pipe" an area that can even patrol your troops. The second project did not begin because of Assad's inaccessibility. It is a project of Qatar-Turkey Pipeline, which in the first project was to pass the territory of Syria.

But the Syrian government wanted to play with other partners and put Iran-Irak-Syria on the pipeline. Which also did not start building. The Alternative Qatar-Turkey Pipeline route was. But in this case, he would pass through the territory controlled by Iraqi Kurds. That is, it would give an additional economic (and political) base for Kurdish forces. What is unacceptable for Ankara. Now we return to the projects.

If the Civil War does not begin in Damascus between the opposition groups (the war against Kurds "does not take into account" - it will continue to be continued in one way or another), it is possible to resuscitate both projects. The first will go Arab Gas Pipeline. And then, construction and "pipes" from Qatar to Turkey are possible.

The main thing here is the political decision of the "new government", the definition of a route with land withdrawal (it is important that there is a "new, democratic" government) and consent to the presence of foreign PECs or army units to protect the facility. That is, from the moment of the start of the pipeline from Qatar requires a year of stability of the new government, which will provide the necessary decisions. You can already work.

The most interesting thing is that the implementation of such projects will be interested in EU countries (gas will go to them). The US and… Iran can become an opponent (if it does not participate in the projects). But with Washington you can agree, given the growing weight of Turkey in the region. But for the Russian Federation it is bad, much more painful than the possible evacuation of military bases.