Ruble in Russia: Will the Kremlin be able to influence the fluctuations of the Russian currency exchange rate

The introduction of mandatory sale of currency in certain categories of exporters will not provide a stable fortification of the ruble. Experts surveyed by focus believe that the devaluation trend will still take the mountain, pushing the Russians to poverty. The ability of the Central Bank of Russia by market methods to influence the ruble exchange rate is limited, since the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the aggressor country for more than $ 300 billion are "frozen".

Focus writes about it in the new article "The fall of the ruble does not stop. How Putin is in vain tries to keep the exchange rate of the Russian currency. " Therefore, Russia is only able to maintain a ruble exchange rate, explains the director of the Analytical Department of the Eavex Capital Investment Company Dmitry Churin.

Exporters' obligation to count in accounts in the Russian Federation at least 80% of foreign exchange earnings and sell from 90% of these funds can only temporarily improve the situation-the maximum before the elections in the spring of 2024, but then the devaluation trends will return to the ruble, Vitaliy Shapran told Focus , extendants of the NBU Council.

According to him, there are now two major fundamental problems in Russia that affect the currency market and the restricted restrictions cannot resolve them. "First, with a positive balance of payments on the MMWB (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange), a significant shortage of dollars and euros is felt," the Shapran continued.

"This is explained by the fact that the calculations were transferred to national currencies at the initiative of the Russian President, and much of Exporters are now in the banks of the buyers. First of all, it is about India, where the Russians have more than $ 40 billion from the sale of oil. Second, part of the payments for Russian exports occurs in rubles, which in itself reduces the inflow of currency from exports. In addition, the rubles also return to the Russians unevenly.

" The Russians are slowly poorer. Over the past two years, the proportion of the population, which lacks salaries to meet basic needs, has increased by 20%. Such data were collected by experts of the platform of online recruitment hh. ru, writes Russian RBC. So, if in 2021 that the salary at the main job does not allow the basic needs, said 25% of the survey participants, then in 2023 the share of such answers increased to 45%.

Another 36% of those surveyed admitted that the salary barely covers their basic needs, while two years ago there were 39% of such answers. If in 2021 earnings allowed to buy all the necessary 36% of respondents, then this year their share decreased to 20%. 45% of the Russians surveyed said they did not allow their earnings to cover the basic needs, while in 2021, such were 25% of the salaries of the study participants also asked to estimate what amount they lacked to cover basic needs.

The results of the survey are as follows: increased currency restrictions will be an unpleasant surprise to the Russians. "For ordinary Russians in the event of increased administrative restrictions in the foreign exchange market, it will be more difficult to conduct foreign exchange transactions," Dmitry Churin said. "The appearance of the shadow currency market is not excluded, which will lead to increased financial resource outflow from the banking system.

will adversely affect the overall economic activity in the country, "the expert is convinced. Already in Moscow, they consider the possibility of introducing a currency control model following the example of Beijing. "The China Government restricts the daily amount of currency transactions for individuals and companies at no more than $ 50,000.

In order to carry out transactions exceeding this limit, a company or an individual must apply to territorial state currency management in order to obtain written permission ", - the expert said. Recall that the Russian Federation studies the possibility of introducing the practice of two courses of rubles, as in China - for internal and external use. However, according to the head of VTB Andriy Kostin, the appearance of two exchange rates provokes a sharp collapse of the Russian currency.