Not deadly restrictions for the Russian Federation. As the aggressor can bypass new oil sanctions

New sanctions imposed by the United States and Britain against the Russian energy sector are aimed at limiting Russia's income from oil exports that finance its hostilities against Ukraine. Companies such as Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz were restricted, as well as more than 180 vessels, mostly tankers involved in the transport of Russian oil. These are very painful sanctions, but not deadly. I will explain briefly why.

These solutions will greatly complicate Russia's ability to receive a maximum of income. The refusal of India and China to accept the tankers that have been sanctioned limits the key markets for Russian oil. The losses will be measured by billions of dollars, but Russia still has some tools for bypassing sanctions, in particular - in trade with India and China. The first is to mix oil.

Like Iran, Russia can mix its oil with other varieties in neutral ports, such as ports of Egypt to hide its origin and bypass restrictions. This will hide some of the exports, although it will result in loss of 20-30% of margin. Plus, it is difficult for large volumes to hide. The second is the use of intermediaries from neutral countries. Attracting companies from non -sanctions can help Russia continue oil exports bypassing direct restrictions.

Such schemes are already used to supply Western technologies bypassing sanctions. The third is what is called "Iranian scheme". Most Iranian oil is currently being exported. There is a small Chinese company that has a small oil terminal. She is squeezed to sanctions, to squeeze on what courts she carries and she can "lose" this oil in a huge Chinese market, and the Communist Party will close her eyes.

And perhaps, it will also bring a cache, which will then find herself in the hands of Chinese special services and will be spent on special operations, say, in Europe or in the United States. So it is possible to master just more than 1. 5 million barrels of oil a day. China takes over 90% of this volume. This scheme is partly achievable for Russia, because from the Russian ports in the Pacific to China is quite narrow. But this is, of course, not close to the volumes that Russia exports now.

The extent towards the scheme can use India is unknown. Therefore, new oil sanctions are much more complicated by Russia's exports, limiting its financial resources. However, this will not kill all the export potential. This is, of course, a strong blow to Russia's economic stability, but it also requires blocking bypass maneuvers. And to work and work on this. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.