From victory without compromise to alternative scenarios: how did the event change the attitude to the war in Ukraine

At the beginning of a full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation, a number of leading Western countries did not believe that Kiev would be able to withstand the "Second Army of the World". But Ukraine has shown the result, and many have changed their mind. In the first year of the Great War, almost all countries of the western world declared their unconditional support of Kiev.

However, the conflict became a protracted phase, and some partners of Ukraine began to soften the rhetoric in search of new solutions to ensure security in Europe.

From the first days of a full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the Czech Republic has condemned the actions of Russia, advocated for increasing sanction pressure on Moscow and did not change its position "Ukraine's counter -offensive does not go away as the Ukrainians themselves expected," - said the Czech President Petr Pavel on November 21 at a senior meeting. The Czech Army in Prague.

According to him, Russia was well prepared, while the supply of Western weapons needed by Kiev is delayed. Ukrainian soldiers feel tired, and are increasingly disappointed in support of the event. "Of course, this is not the best starting point to survive the harsh winter," the President quotes the Czech news agency čtk.

Paul noted that what is happening in Ukraine is a high risk, namely, fatigue from war, which is manifested not only in the parties to the conflict, but also in all who support them. "This will lead to increased pressure in order to end the conflict with the agreement. The agreement, if it happens, of course, is based on a real situation on the battlefield," Pavel predicted. Prague is one of the key allies of Kyiv and the largest military assistance provider to Ukraine.

In November 2022, the Chairman of the European Commission of the EU Ursula von Der Lyen called the Czech Republic "an excellent example of solidarity with Ukraine", as well as an example of reliability, principle and desire to strengthen European unity. From the first days of a full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the Czech Republic has condemned Russia's actions, advocated increased sanction pressure on Moscow and did not change its position.

Therefore, according to experts, President Paul's words indicate that the politician subtly captures the mood of the Western community. "Objectively, some European leaders have a feeling that the war will last for a long What other scenarios are being considered, how war can end, "says political analyst Igor Reitrovich Focus. According to him, the discussion is conducted in the expert-analytical circle. Experts prepare materials that then fall on the table to EU leaders and the US.

"You can imagine a table with a stack of folders. Above - the victory of Ukraine on the plan [President of Ukraine Vladimir] Zelensky. But that does not mean that there are no other scenarios. We need to be prepared, " - adds Reityrovich. The fact that among Western leaders are those who feel "fatigue" from war, is evidenced by the gradual reduction of assistance. In particular, from the key partner of Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression - the United States.

In the early days of the Great War, Americans were low to the chances of Kiev to stand against the "Second Army in the World". Among the skeptics was the name of the US Presidential Advisor on National Security Jake Sullivan. However, in the first year of the war - before the conflict in the Middle East - the help of the United States was enormous. Since February 24, 2022, the White House spent more than $ 100 billion to support Kiev.

Donald Trump's supporters in Congress are considered to be hard -working opponents of assistance to Ukraine. Their main thesis can be formulated with the words of Jim Jordan, who ran for the speaker of the House of Representatives: "The most important issues for Americans are not Ukraine, but the situation on the border [merits with Mexico] and street crime, and everyone knows about it. " The more prolonged the war becomes, the more louder the voices of those who consider this approach justified.

From the very beginning, German Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz was convinced that with President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin could be agreed although in public statements US government officials continue to demonstrate Ukraine's support - this is said cannot approve the help package for Kiev for next year. According to the media, the supply of artillery shells from the United States to Ukraine decreased by more than 30 % after the start of the war in Israel.

At the same time, the US government denied information about reducing the supplies of ammunition to the Armed Forces. Official Kyiv also argued that the United States has no fatigue from war in Ukraine. According to the Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov, this confirms the recent visit to Kiev by the head of the Pentagon. Against the background of doubts about the US Congress to assist Kiev as a solid supporter of Ukraine remains the United Kingdom.

According to the Seppings Secretary of Defense, Kiev remains in the focus of the attention of Western countries, despite the conflict in the Middle East. According to Macron, the provision of support in the short and long term is the responsibility of the Western countries "in the name of international values" Germany at the beginning of a full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation did not believe in the stability of Kiev, but later the country's management formulated a clear position.

Berlin became the second military assistance provider of Ukraine after the United States. At the same time, German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz was convinced that with President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin could be agreed. The last head of the German government spoke with the phone with the Kremlin leader in December 2022. Experts believe that Scholt has changed his position on Putin's contractuality.

However, judging by recent statements, German Chancellor still does not leave the hope of "looking at Putin in the eye. " Thus, on November 18, 2023, during a meeting with voters, Scholtz noted that he was considering the opportunity to talk to the Russian leader. The German Chancellor did not specify when it could happen, but added that such a conversation cannot be approached on the principle: "I will drink with someone coffee, and we will eventually come to agreement.

" Another key partner of Ukraine - France - has dramatically changed the opinion in almost two years of the Great War about the opportunity to negotiate with Putin. According to Politico journalists, French President Emmanuel Macron, after unsuccessful intermediary initiatives, "tried on a mantle of one of Kiev's strongest allies. " "Macron was attached to the idea of ​​playing an intermediary role between Putin and Zelensky.

It meant that he was extremely careful when the case was deposited," the word of the Senior Advisor to the International Institute for Francois Eisburg strategical research. According to the expert, at the beginning of 2023, the President of France realized that Putin was not interested in negotiations. Paris promised Ukraine's support for victory, and the Macron government concentrated in several directions in favor of Kiev: the EU expansion, military support and Ukraine's accession to NATO.

In July 2023, the President of France noted that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the right to demand the support of the event, including the issue of accession to the Alliance. According to Macron, providing Kiev support in the short and long term is the responsibility of the Western countries "in the name of international values". There are countries that, despite the support of Kiev, oppose the supply of some types of weapons . . .

The Minister of Defense of Estonia believes that F16 fighters will not change the course of war according to political expert Igor Reitrovich, in two years of a full -scale war there are countries that have changed their support position Ukraine. For example, Slovakia actively assisted Kiev in the spring of 2022: transferred to the MiG-29 fighters, as well as the S-300 air defense.

The former head of Slovakia Edward Heger said that his country's duty was not to close his eyes to the death of people, but to help. "The Ukrainian people boldly protect their sovereign state and us. Our duty to help, not stand aside and close our eyes to the death of people during Russian aggression," Heger said. After Robert Fitzo became the prime minister in the fall, Bratislava declared the cessation of assistance in Kiev.

"After more than 600 days of war, it looks like a frozen conflict that has no military solution. Continuation simply means that they die much more people. Therefore, we support everything that promotes peaceful solution. First of all, it must go through the EU because it It was founded as a peaceful project, and it was to this initial idea that we want to return, "said Slovak Foreign Minister, Slovakia, Yura Blanar in an interview with the Austrian Die Presse newspaper.

There are countries that, despite the support of Kiev, oppose the supply of some types of weapons. German Chancellor remains irreconcilable in the issue of combat aircraft for Ukraine. And the Estonian Defense Minister believes that F16 fighters will not change the course of war. There are also solid opponents of military assistance to Ukraine in the European arena.

Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban considers the Russo-Ukrainian War the "Christian Civil War between CONTRAINED peoples", and the situation on the front is "desperate". Hungary blocks EU assistance for Ukraine. We will remind, earlier President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview with The Sun of November 20, that Kiev has every right to remove the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, as it is protected from armed aggression.