The end of Putin era. That awaits Russia after defeat in the war with Ukraine

Anders Aslund American economist, senior researcher atlantic Council is not yet known how the war will end, but it is quite obvious that it has become a catastrophe for Russia in general and for Putin personally Vladimir Putin refuses to admit defeat in Ukraine. On September 21, he announced the plans of partial mobilization, while promising to annex even more Ukrainian territory, threatening to protect his "acquisition" with nuclear weapons.

This latter manifestation of force cannot hide the gloomy realities of Putin's invasion, which is rapidly falling apart. Seven months after the Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border for the first time, its exhausted and deeply demoralized army settled in defense, and the military initiative finally passed to the Ukrainians. Video day is not known how the war will end, but it is very obvious that the invasion of Ukraine has become a catastrophe for Russia as a whole and for Putin personally.

This raised the progress made in the Russian Federation for the first decade of its leadership, and ruthlessly exposed numerous miscalculations of his 22-year-old rule. Putin has long dreamed of taking his place among the titans of Russian history. Instead, he now looks like to be remembered as one of the worst rulers of the country. It is difficult to overestimate Putin's negative impact on Russia and the international community in general.

He solved a number of unreasonable wars, suppressed personal rights and freedoms within Russia itself, he grew a culture of xenophobia and cut off the Russians from a developed world, he stopped the development of the Russian economy and put an end to the modernization of the country, and he spread the information epidemic of fakes and lies in the world. For Russians who dream of returning to imperial grandeur, Putin's greatest crime is his talentless invasion of Ukraine.

For Russia, humiliating military losses for the first time. In the last two centuries, four defeats have been particularly distinguished: the Crimean War (1853–1856), the Russo-Japanese War (1904–1905), the First World War (1914–1917) and the Afghan War (1979–1988). It is comforting that for all four defeat there were periods of liberalization. After the Crimean War, Tsar Alexander II abolished serfdom throughout the Russian Empire.

The defeat in the Russo-Japanese War led to the creation of the Duma, while the premature exit of Russia from the First World War married the first democratic elections in the history of the country. Meanwhile, the failure in Afghanistan has become a significant factor in the collapse of the USSR.

Although pessimists assume that after Putin there will be an even larger tyrant, the history of the Russian Empire shows that the military defeat will probably lead to a weakening of Russia's authoritarian instincts. It is difficult to imagine that Putin has survived the war in Ukraine. The invasion of which he so inadvertently ordered, destroyed the Russian army and made his country a global outcast, instead, nothing was achieved. The war also led to a sharp deterioration in the country.

Repeating the worst excesses of Stalin and Hitler, Putin made the norm of genocide of Ukrainians and did it an everyday topic of discussion on Russian television. Meanwhile, as noted by first-class investigative journalists Andriy Soldatov and Irina Borogan, his FSB security service is increasingly reminiscent of the terrible era of the Soviet NKVD. Putin influenced Russia's international relations, which goes far beyond the consequences of invasion of Ukraine.

His long list of unfulfilled promises and shameless dishonesty makes other world leaders be increasingly afraid to deal with him. Some have lasted longer than others, but even patient leaders of France and Germany, it seems, now came to the conclusion that Putin's words were worthless. The decline in the status of the Russian emperor in the international arena was demonstrated in Uzbekistan at a recent Samchi Summit of the Organization of Cooperation.

Once Putin was known to be forced to wait for many of the most prominent state figures in the world. However, Tashkent was forced to wait for the presidents of Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan. The only policies that feel comfortable in his company are representatives of other robots, such as Iran and North Korea. Putin's reign also had a bad effect on the Russian economy.

During the first two presidential terms, long-lasting Gaidar-Elcin reforms and high energy prices created a false impression of reasonable economic management. It was only an illusion. The Russian economy has been in a state of stagnation since 2014 and is now declining. The most optimistic official forecasts give 6% reduction in 2022 and lack of lifting over a decade. The resource base of Russia, which is not equal, is enough to make it the richest country on the planet.

Instead, Putin blocked modernization and put Russia on full dependence on the export of its natural resources. Even according to official data, real income in Russia in the period from 2014 to 2020 fell by 10%. Instead of discovering the country and diversifying the economy, Putin with his wars and repressive domestic policy isolated Russia and scared out foreign business.

This led to the leakage of the best minds of Russia, while official data show that more than 400,000 people left the country in the first half of 2022. Many of those who have "voted" with their feet belong to well -educated and enterprising sections of society. The only economic problem that seems to be really interested in Putin is the wealth of his friends and family.

He has made no effort to curb the mass outflow of capital from Russia, perhaps because most of this outflow is related to it or its allies. While the salaries of ordinary Russians are frozen, members of Putin's close environment have accumulated a huge wealth. Although there is no official data, it has long been saying that Putin himself is one of the wealthiest people in the world.

The catastrophic consequences of Putin's decision to invade Ukraine helped to shed the relentless light at the time of his reign. He caused great losses in Russia, sharply undermining the country in international affairs. Russia today is markedly more isolated and less free than at the beginning of its reign, 22 years ago. It is a society driven into a false vision of the past and openly hostile to most of the modern world. This is Putin's heritage.