The war in the Russian Federation is inevitable: why IDIL declared involvement in the terrorist attack in "Crocus"

Shooting in City City, probably organized by the IDIL cell, could be beneficial, including the Kremlin, experts believe. Focus found out what the consequences in the terrorist attack in the Moscow region. The Crocus City Hall concert hall in the Moscow region, which has taken over 130 people, has become the largest in the history of the Russian Federation in the number of dead after a terrorist attack in Beslan.

On March 23, the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation announced the detention in the Bryansk region 11 persons involved in the event, including four performers. According to security officers, the suspects tried to escape, moving on a car towards the Russian-Ukrainian border, where they were allegedly prepared a "window" in Ukraine. The official Kiev involvement in the terrorist attack denies.

The Kremlin's accusations were called "planned provocation" in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and suggested that the terrorist attack was organized by Moscow to "strengthen the mobilization of Russian citizens. " On March 24, the responsibility for shooting at Crocus City Hall took over the Islamic State terrorist group. The corresponding video was posted by AMAQ news agency close to ID.

The version that one of the Cells of ID is involved in the terrorist attack in the Russian Federation is considered in the West. Thus, the newspaper The New York Times, citing US intelligence services, reported that the shooting in the Moscow region could be hosted by IDIL-K, who operate in Afghanistan. The media noted that the following goals of terrorists may be the Olympic Games in Paris. The reaction in France did not wait.

President Emmanuel Macron said he intends to "expand cooperation" with Russia in the fight against IDIL groups who have taken responsibility for the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall. And he expressed "support and solidarity with the Russian people. " Macron also added that the Vilayat Horasan IDIL group, which took responsibility for shooting in the Russian Federation, made several attempts attempts in France, Germany and other European countries. They were especially active at the end of 2022.

But the suspects were detained before the terrorist attacks were committed. Germany is also concerned about the activation of ISIL. Nanjer's Interior Minister has declared the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper that "Islamic State - Chorasan" is the biggest Islamist threat in Germany. " And enhanced safety measures during Christmas and New Year were aimed at protecting against possible threats to terrorist attacks.

There is no "Islamic State" that has been in Syria for a long time, says the head of the Center for Military Legal Research Alexander Musienko. However, there are a branch of a terrorist organization, such as IDIL-K, also known as "Vilayat Chorasan", which has taken responsibility for shooting in the Moscow region. This group appeared in 2015 during the recruitment of Afghan, Pakistanis, Talibana and Uzbekistan's Islamic Movement.

And regularly arranges terrorist actions in Afghanistan against the ruling Taliban regime. "IDIL-K exist in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as in the Russian Federation and Europe through donations from different countries in the Middle East and Africa, from secured people interested in similar methods of destabilization in the world, as well as their supporters. They need small money. Weapons are often homemade, which can be bought in the black market.

But the more they are gaining, the more donations they receive, "Musienko says. After it became known that Russian security forces were tortured by suspects in the organization of shooting in the Moscow region, Iranian media reported that members of IDIL allegedly announced new terrorist attacks in Russia and threatened Putin personally. According to the terrorists, it is "revenge for the torture of members of the organization".

The expert believes that although the main purpose of IDIL-K is to overthrow the existing government of the historical region of Chorasan in Eastern Iran and to create an Islamic caliphate, more and more people from Central Asia lives in the Russian Federation, so they do not mind trying to implement a similar project in Russia. "The purpose of the terrorist attack is to declare itself. And to declare the war of the Russian Federation.

In addition, the war for the caliphate can take place in Russia, as the Russian Federation supports the" Taliban "in Afghanistan. And IDIL-K is fighting against this regime,"-says the expert. The expert of the Center for Defense Strategies Alexander Hara in a conversation with Focus notes that it remains in question how the special services of the Russian Federation, which control everything inside the country, allegedly missed the preparation of a terrorist act.

This suggests that security officers either knew about the preparation of the terrorist attack and admitted it for political purposes, or were co -organized by the event.

In this case, the Kremlin could pursue several goals: the strengthening of Putin's power, the intensification of mobilization measures within the country, as well as the opportunity to provoke sympathy for the Russian Federation from the countries of the West, whose leaders have recently called Moscow "evil", and today are ready to cooperate in matters of fighting. terrorism. "It is difficult to say if there will be new terrorist attacks in the Russian Federation.

But the fact that during the Muslim post, the security forces forced one of the detainees to eat their ear - this will greatly affect the fundamentalists in the Russian Federation. They respond to the total repression that power will start against Tajikov and other people in Central Asia. Therefore, the terrorist attack may well be an additional front within the country, "Hara says. The expert adds that the Civil War in the Russian Federation is in any case inevitable.

And the terrorist activity of fundamentalists only destabilizes the situation more strongly. The question is only how soon in a society where there are no political mechanisms to resolve insurmountable internal contradictions, a collapse will take place. "Democratic countries usually have ways to solve such issues peacefully. The maximum is on the Maidan. This is not the best option, but it is an indicator that the political system does not work and need to shake society and the country.

The Russian Federation is impossible. "that showed how strong contradictions within the country and it is impossible to resolve them politically. There is no opposition, which means that any contradictions-linguistic, religious, ethnic, economic-sooner or later will lead to chaos in the country. Plus is The Russians who are fighting on the side of Ukraine. And they will not stop even after the war and try to change the situation within the Russian Federation by force and weapon, "Hara said.