The Armed Forces breakthrough in the Kursk region: why Western experts missed in their forecasts

The offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation provoked an ambiguous reaction in the information space, including among Western military experts and top -to -top agencies. In their analytical materials, Western specialists often gave disappointing forecasts about the prospects and expediency of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk direction.

In this regard, the focus found out what comments sounded in the event about the events in the Kursk region and why many forecasts were not justified in this direction two weeks from the beginning of the breakthrough of the Ukrainian forces in this direction. The offensive of the Ukrainian forces in the Kursk direction began on August 6. The first battles were struck on the Russian-Ukrainian border between small assault groups of the Armed Forces and Russian border guards.

Literally in the first days, Ukrainian soldiers managed to break into the settlement of Sudzha, which is 9 km from the border with Ukraine, and to control the gas metering station "Sudzha", through which gas transit is carried out to Europe. The events took place in information silence from Kiev, but Western observers responded to the breakthrough of the Russian border with the first publications.

For example, the correspondent of the American channel CNN Nick Petton Wolsh wrote on August 8, a review stated that the strategic goal of Ukraine in the Kursk region was unclear. According to him, the offensive of the Armed Forces is "the moment or despair or inspiration of" Ukrainians. Volsh also suggested that Kiev with this throw deep into the territory of the Russian Federation, on the one hand, seeks to control the key point of pumping gas to Europe.

On the other hand, to strengthen the position of Alexander Syrsky's head, the young subordinates of which allegedly doubt his competence. The British Officer of the Telegraph Samuel Ramani on the second day of a successful breakthrough in the Ukrainian troops suggested the strategic tasks of the Armed Forces near Kursk.

He identified three key points: in his forecasts, the British news portal of The Economist went on and on the basis of Russian sources released a publication stating that the purpose of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region was the capture of a nuclear power plant located 60 km from the border. In addition, it was about the creation of some "buffer zone", which would become a coin in future negotiations with the Russian Federation.

The German edition of Neue Zürcher Zeitung reported that, of course, the breakthrough of the border found the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation by surprise, but in the long run the lightning attack of the Ukrainian forces did not promise prospects, since the Center for gravity in this war is not located near Kursk, but in the East of Ukraine. The British journalist of The Guardian Dan Sabbach noted that, according to military experts, such attacks "do not serve long -term military goals".

And the US Associated Press in its material claimed that, given the extension of the front line and the limited number of Ukrainian troops involved in the operation, the Armed Forces offensive will probably not have a significant long -term effect. Separately note the words of the German military observer Julian Ryopke from the Bild newspaper, who actually criticized the Ukrainian leadership for the Kursk operation.

According to him, against the background of attempts to break through the Ukrainian forces deep into the territory of the Russian Federation, the situation for the forces of defense is catastrophic in the Donbass. In particular, in the Pokrovsky direction, due to the promotion of Russians, who seemed to approach 7 km to Pokrovsk and continue to gradually expand their bridgehead, the local authorities began to evacuate the civilian population.

"Let me make myself unpopular again - the situation in the Donbass is catastrophic. In this situation, I still consider to be extremely risky to send 5,000 best soldiers to the neighboring country instead of a counter -offensive there," Ropke stressed. In such a way, the material of the Professor of the Department of Defense Research by Michael Clark in the British newspaper The Times, which made several critical remarks about the Ukrainian offensive.

First of all, it was stated that invading the territory of the Russian Federation was a bold decision of Kiev, but it causes fears of Western leaders, since NATO military equipment and land equipment is used in Russian lands. The author also noted the prospects of the Armed Forces. In his opinion, the maximum, which can count on the Ukrainian forces near Kursk - deepen their promotion and take control of Kursk NPP in Kurchatov to compensate for the loss of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Station.

Thus, in general, the Ukrainian counterattack will not be able to break the course of the war, and the success of the campaign will be measured by how expensive Moscow will be expensive to win their territories in the Kursk region. Although in any case, Clark summed up, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy went to a very risky step. In fact, two weeks after the start of the Kursk operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not look like a failure and adventure of Kiev.

First of all, we note the statement of the President and Supreme Commander -in -Chief Vladimir Zelensky, where it was said that the offensive operation is in the same way as it was planned. "The bravery of Ukrainians does great things. Now we strengthen our positions. The bridgehead of our presence is getting stronger. I want to thank every warrior who provides it: all soldiers, sergeants and commanders," Zelensky said on August 17 during a video.

Also yesterday, August 19, the Ukrainian leader reported that at this time the forces of defense of Ukraine in the Kursk region control 92 settlements on more than 1250 square meters. km of the territory. According to Zelensky, Ukrainian units are fixed on employed borders and stabilize the situation in certain sections of the front. But the significant success of the Armed Forces fighters is the number of Russian soldiers who were captured during the offensive.

"This operation has become our greatest investment in the process of liberation of Ukrainians and Ukrainian women from Russian captivity. We have already taken the most Russian prisoners for one operation," the Head of State emphasized. Zelensky has not yet specified the number of soldiers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, captured in the Kursk direction, but according to The Independent, it is about 2000 Russian servicemen.

As for the territorial conquests of the defense forces, according to the Deep State resource, only on August 18, the Ukrainian forces were occupied by the settlements of Apanasivka, sleeping and bison. For their part, analysts from the Institute of War Study (ISW) write that Ukrainian troops advanced near the settlement of Vyshnivka to the southwest of Korenev during the offensive, which was 14 km from the international border, and passed northeast of Sudzhi.

In addition, the Ukrainian forces are coming to the P200 highway, which leads to the two most important points in the region - to Kursk and Kurchatov, where Kursk NPP is located.

Evaluating the situation near Kursk, the professor of military research of the royal college of London Lawrence Friedman noted that if the Ukrainian troops manage to maintain the offensive potential in this direction, then the enemy will be forced to transfer part of the forces from the Donbass to stop the further promotion of defense forces. "Speaking of new territorial realities, it includes Russian lands captured by the Armed Forces if Ukraine is able to keep them.

It is an important change of narrative," - summed up Lawrence Friedman. In view of the data that testify to the success of the Ukrainian forces in the Kursk direction, such a conclusion is made. The initial skeptical estimates of the Armed Forces in the territory of the Russian Federation were not confirmed by the real state of affairs in the Kursk region.

In addition to official statements on the Ukrainian side, we also note the signals of Russian military and bloggers, who often do not share victorious relations about the successes of Russian troops that come to the highest military leadership of the Russian Federation. It should be reminded, in particular, that the profile Russian channels have reported large losses in the units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which are trying to stop the Ukrainian offensive.