Russian Lviv and War in Europe: what consequences can the United States refuse to help Ukraine

The analysis conducted by the US Institute of Entrepreneurship showed that the victory of Russia over Ukraine will cost American taxpayers in an additional $ 808 billion more than the fact that the United States is planning to spend on defense in the next five years. This is about seven times more than all the help, the Pentagon has been allocated to help Ukraine since the invasion of Russia in 2022.

This assessment is based on a scenario in which the United States is stopped with assistance, and Russia's victory requires us to adapt our military capabilities, potential and position to maintain our security. The research then uses the Defense Futures simulator simulator to estimate the costs required to restrain and, if necessary, victory over Russia in Europe, as well as to prevent further conflicts by the intensified opponents in the Pacific and the Middle East.

Without US support, Russia will move forward in 2025, when weapons will end in Kiev. By 2026, Ukraine will lose effective air defense, which will allow Russia to carry out permanent large -scale bombing. The usual Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to fight courageously, but most likely to be collapsed by the end of this year, which will allow Russia to capture Kiev and then move to the border of NATO.

Invnimated Russia will restore its combat units, use Ukraine's resources to strengthen its potential, place its forces along the NATO border and will be ready to attack outside Ukraine by 2030. The idea that America should be removed from Europe and save its strength and money, does not take into account the global nature of the conflict.

Although Europe should definitely invest more in our own defense, history has shown us how dangerous it is to think that we can ignore our interests in a particular region. Similar regional conflicts have gone. Nothing has done it more obvious than China, North Korea and Iran's hostilities. In order to protect itself - in nationally, military and economic terms - the US must remain a global state and invest in the potential necessary to protect its partners and themselves.

The failure of American determination in Europe is only sub -aggression and will jeopardize our prosperity around the world. If we allow Ukraine to fall, Washington will need larger, more capable, more reacting and larger in more military places.

To restrain or, if necessary, defeat Russia, the US armed forces will require 14 new brigade combat groups, 18 additional ships of combat forces, eight additional infantry infantry battalions, 555 additional aircraft of the Air Force and 266,000 servicemen to increase the structure of forces. The United States will need to strengthen its presence in Europe, including pre -placing air defense, supplies and ammunition.

The diversification and expansion of the industrial base that supports our armed forces will also have to move much faster than it is now to meet the high requirements of the modern war. Although the conflict on the European continent will be conducted mainly by land troops under the cover of the Air Force, Washington will have to invest in the naval potential.

The US Navy will have to give up plans to reduce the total number of ships, stabilize the number of aircraft carrier fleet at 12 units and buy additional ships-submarines, destroyers, frigates, as well as vessels of logistics and support to keep the fleet in the sea. The US will also have to maintain the increased readiness of troops stationed and deployed in the country, which means additional training, improving the material and technical base and the creation of spare parts.

It will take more and better the forces of special operations that are required to collect intelligence, the formation of the battlefield and disorganization of the enemy. Given that Russia is an experienced space and cyber state, the United States will also need a more advanced architecture and management system in both areas.

On the contrary, if America and its allies are accelerating assistance, the winner will see how Russia retreats for its borders with broken and weakened armed forces, an economy that is experiencing difficulties weakened by partnerships and a large portion of internal problems. Ukraine, on the contrary, would be dynamic and free, with a flourishing industrial base and modern armed forces. Washington would be able to reduce the number of dislocations and opportunities in Europe.

It will still retain its presence there, but will be able to pay more resources and attention to the Pacific. Not only do the United States care about their safety when participating in hostilities, they also save money. The country faces numerous national problems. Illegal immigration, public debt financing and increasingly unpredictable global security situation - all of them need attention and resources. But in Ukraine the rates are especially high.