Don't wait for peace until the end of the year. Why negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are possible no earlier than 2024

And someone, on the contrary, is afraid of these possible negotiations, fearing that we will be imprisoned on disadvantages. It seems to me that there was some hesitant on the topic of negotiations. Will there be talks about peace? I disappoint those who hope for a quick peace and those who fear the imposition of a disadvantageous peace.

There will be no quick peace, but also negotiations on peace (more precisely, their attempts) are inevitable, but not now, but later (about half a year, but not earlier than 3-4 months, and possibly not earlier than the end of 2024 . ). However, some arrangements, even about ceasefire, will not be achieved at once. The future negotiation may be delayed for many months, and not even for one year.

With regard to peace statements, attention should not be paid to the words of NATO official who does not make a decision, is poorly versed in the situation, and is forced to justify and apologize, but on more serious people who have real power and direct influence on us, and and on us, on the international situation. For example, the US President stated: "Russia has already lost. It cannot achieve its original goal. " And this is not the first such statement from Biden.

According to such logic, if Russia has lost, it is time to stop the war and negotiate. But it is unlikely that in Russia agree that they have lost. And they are unlikely to negotiate on the US and Ukraine. Lukashenko seemingly hints at the need for peace, but rather in the context of the victory of Russia, which allegedly "reached its goals".

The Belarusian dictator does not give serious arguments in favor of this thesis, but he is clearly a supporter of the end of the war and sends his hints rather to the Kremlin. And the Kremlin speaks not so much about peace, but about the possibility of a new wave of mobilization (the legal framework of which is ready) and the preparation of a large offensive in the spring of next year.

I will remind that in the spring of 2024 in Russia there will be a presidential election, and a scenario of attempts to advance Russian troops in Ukraine under the election of Putin (as a military-political PR campaign) has a rather plausible appearance. It is also very noticeable that Russia intends to delay the war against Ukraine at least before the US presidential election, hoping for the victory of Trump and the depletion of Ukraine's military potential.

It is unacceptable for Ukraine to negotiate on Russian conditions, for the West, by the way, it is also unacceptable, because it will look like a political defeat. And such a scenario will only push Russia to further military expansion and increase pressure to the West. Therefore, in the political sense, the potential negotiation situation remains deadlock. Talks about peace talks to end the war in Ukraine in the West are constantly conducted.

At the same time, Ukraine will still say that the decision and on what conditions it is necessary to start negotiations with Russia. There is nothing new here. And delay in weapons supplies is far from a new trend. Rather, this is a regular practice. Just now there is a shortage of some weapons and ammunition, which were previously in Western arsenals, but have already been used in the war against Russia.

At the same time, I will pay attention to the decision on the supply of Ukraine F-16 after completing our pilots, and negotiations on the supply of long-range missiles. These are preventive signals of the event to Russia that in the event of an escalation of the war, military-technical support of Ukraine will not only continue, but can be strengthened. Because of the trends, I would pay attention to the trends in the military situation. And these trends are very controversial.

On the one hand, there is an escalation of hostilities on both sides. In this case, the military situation looks like an approximate equilibrium ("equilibrium") in the military potential of both parties. And we see in the West two the exact opposite reactions to this "military equilibrium" in Ukraine. Some of the statesmen, politicians and experts advocate the qualitative strengthening of Ukraine's military and technical support so that we can break the military situation in our favor.

On the other hand, the conditional "party of peace", whose supporters are convinced that the military situation in Ukraine will not change significantly, the military by winning Russia will not succeed, so we must gradually begin negotiations with Russia. The discussion between the two camps has intensified, but there has not yet been a dramatic change in the West Strategy for the War between Russia and Ukraine. In Russia, they are still betting on the war with the elements of its escalation.

Although there is a hidden "Party of Peace". There is a very high risk that in the coming months, or in the coming year, we will see a qualitatively new round of war - the war of drones (mass use of drones in air and marine attacks, on a much larger scale than now). The criterion for Russia's real readiness for peace talks will be the situation with the possibility of restoration of the grain agreement.

If Russia goes to a mutually acceptable compromise to restore the grain agreement, it will be a prelude to future peace talks. If not, then it means that Putin has taken a course to delay the war, and there will be no real peace talks by the end of 2024. Only after the end of the current stage of the escalation of the war, and perhaps the future "war of drones" will real peace talks begin.