Putin is afraid of indignation: a new wave of mobilization has been postponed in the Russian Federation - the Times

The British publication published reflections on the current situation with the war in Ukraine British political scientist Mark Galeotty. He believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin overcomes doubts about holding a new wave of mobilization in the near future. Although the Russian military leadership insists on its need and that it should already begin, Putin's political environment convinced him not to take this unpopular step.

This is due to the fact that the regional elections should take place in September, so you need to postpone mobilization until winter. Galeotti believes that Putin made such a decision. But at the same time, such a step will cause the time it takes to prepare new soldiers to send to the front before the new election season begins. According to the political scientist, Putin is not concerned, he is worried that new mobilization can shake his position within the country.

Galeotti believes that for Ukraine and Russia the war has become a routine exercise. Both in Kiev and the West begin to understand that the war will last longer than expected. "Although the Ukrainian counter -offensive has not been planned at the plan, it does not mean that it has fallen. There are released territories, and Russian troops are badly exhausted. There is a month or two and by November Ukraine can break a breakthrough on the Southern Front," Galeotty says.

The political scientist believes that Ukraine has an initiative and now wins the war. Although the prospects for peace remain vague. "The problem is that none of the parties is ready for negotiations. Kiev believes that it will be better to negotiate when it liberate more territories and blocks Crimea. It is becoming more and more obvious that this war will continue next year, "Galeotti said.

According to the political scientist, in Ukraine by spring next year there will be more Western weapons and possibly even F-16 aircraft. Therefore, you can hope for the great success of the Armed Forces on the front. "It all depends on whether Ukrainians will be able to fight for so long and whether the event will be able to support Ukraine in the long run. In any case, the prospects in Kiev look better than in Moscow.

But everyone who hoped for the end of the war this year is most likely, They will be disappointed, " - says the British political scientist. We remind that the adviser to the chairman of the OP Mikhail Podolyak explained why Ukraine will not change the components of the "peace formula". The Ukrainian "formula of peace" has no alternatives, because otherwise - Russia will strengthen its appetite and attack Ukraine again, Podolyak says.