War between India and Pakistan: whether the escalation can be resolved

India struck retribution on Pakistani groups responsible for a terrorist attack in Indian Kashmir two weeks ago. The Government of India has published a statement for the press, which is about the start of Sindur surgery early in the morning of May 7. The operation is directed against the infrastructure of terrorists in Pakistan and occupied Pakistan Kashmiri. According to the Indian government, nine terrorists were hit.

The government noted that it acted "purposefully, carefully and without escalation" to ensure control of blows. The statement also states that India revealed "greater restraint in the choice of goals and methods of strikes" and did not target Pakistani military facilities. After the strikes, India informed the governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates and Russia.

The blows were a response to Pakhalhamba (Indian Kashmir), which causes 25 Indians and one Nepal citizen. Previous large terrorist attacks in Kashmir in 2016 and 2019 were directed against Indian security forces. However, the goals of the attack in Pahalgam were civilians, which caused a wave of anger in India and forced the government to take action.

According to the first reports, Pahalgama terrorist attack made the Kashmirsky Front of Resistance, which, according to India, is the proxy of a well-known terrorist group "Lashkar-E-Taiba", supported by Pakistan. It is unclear now that the group is responsible, but the fact that it was a Pakistani group that enjoys the widespread support of the Pakistani military, is not in doubt. India and Pakistan are not the first time.

In the last decade, India has survived two large terrorist attacks, which resulted in Pakistan. India has long tried to develop an effective answer to the use of cross -border terrorism as a method of public policy. Such attacks are clearly aimed at removing India from equilibrium, but India's response measures are gradually getting tougher. Traditionally, India does not meet military means.

In December 2001, a terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001 led to the mobilization of the Armed Forces, but no clashes occurred. In 2008, the Indian government excluded the possibility of a military response to a terrorist attack on Mumbai. However, in September 2016, the terrorist attack in September 2016, when 18 Indian soldiers were killed on the infantry basis, India forced India to change its approach.

This attack occurred after another major terrorist attack in January 2016 on the base of the Indian Air Force in Pathancott. After two great attacks, the Dilemma appeared before the Indian leadership, and it responded with the so -called "surgical blow" - an attack of special forces on the shelter of Pakistani terrorists. In 2019, India survived another major terrorist attack in Pulvam, which killed dozens of central reserve police officers.

This testified to the escalation of Pakistan strikes, not only in scale, but also in rhetoric, given the bold and open statement of the terrorist group "Jaish-E-Mukhamad", based in Pakistan, that it had made these blows. It is concerned that the 2016 surgical strikes did not have the proper restraining effect, India went to escalation, causing air -strikers on the base of terrorists in Pakistani Balacota.

It was the first case of attack of Indian combat aircraft on the Pakistani territory since the Indian-Pakistan War of 1971. Such a radical step shows that India concluded that there is no proper influence of non -military measures on Pakistan. Earlier, India responded to terrorist attacks diplomatic, including the collapse of negotiations or restrictions on diplomatic interaction with Pakistan. In addition, New Delhi usually resorted to international diplomatic pressure to restrain Pakistan.

Such political measures were unable to change Pakistan's policy on state terrorism. The absence of effective force in India has led to Pakistan dangerously underestimated possible actions in response to India. Now that India has struck in response to Pakistan, there is a high probability that Pakistan will take at least limited measures in response to satisfy its internal electorate.

But it is extremely unlikely that both sides will deliberately translate the current crisis into a protracted series of collisions. Although both states are nuclear states, nuclear weapons are unlikely to play a direct role in these clashes. However, given the proximity of countries to each other, the dynamics of escalation cannot be excluded. Pakistan is likely to try to take advantage of this, using escalating scenarios to exercise international diplomatic pressure on India.