In recent weeks, the Kremlin and its control of quasi -republics have made several claims about plans of the Russian Federation to seize the maximum of the territories of Ukraine. On July 27, the Moscow appointee Denis Pushilin, the leader of the DNR fighters, declared a new fantastic "highest goal" of the Russian invasion.
"Today it is time to release Russian cities, founded by Russian people: Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Lutsk," Pushilin wrote in Telegram channel during his visit to Belarus. On July 28, Vladimir Putin Prescribe Dmitry Peskov supported this statement. “The Kremlin supports the mood that it is necessary to release Ukraine from all sorts of manifestations of neo -Nazi sentiment . . .
Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also stated that the Kremlin regime intends to continue the capture of Ukrainian territories. According to the Russian Minister, the "geographical tasks" of the invasion changed. "It is not only" DNR "and" LNR ", it is also the Kherson region, the Zaporizhzhia region and a number of other territories, and this process is ongoing, and continues consistently and persistently," Lavrov said on July 20.
And on July 16, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoiga "gave instructions to further increase the actions of groups in all operating areas. " It was at that moment that the analysts of the American Institute for Studying War (ISW) stated the release of Russian troops from a short operational pause in the Donbass.
However, for two weeks since the army of the Russian Federation, it has not been possible to increase the pace of its offensive in the Donbass so, after the seizure of Russia Severodonetsk and Lisichansk in the Luhansk region of the Armed Forces have been holding the invaders in almost one place for several weeks, said the head of Lugansk Ova Sergei Gaidai on July 28.
Although all this time, he said, Russian troops are trying to press on all sides of the front to break into the big cities of Donetsk region. The ISW analysts have also emphasized that the Russian army has not been a short pause for recovery, and its offensive resource is unlikely to be enough for something more than an attempt to conquer Bakhmut and Siversk (Donetsk region).
In other regions - Kharkiv and Kherson regions - the forces of the Russian Federation are only trying to prevent the preparation of the Armed Forces counter -offensive, writes in their daily ISW. NV has collected assessments of international media and experts about what a new wave of threatening statements to the Russian Federation can mean and whether the Kremlin is able to organize a wide seizure of Ukraine's territories - in addition to the occupied lands.
In this text, we do not evaluate the threat of far missile strikes in the cities of Ukraine, the risk of which can be stored for a long time, but only the possibilities of a landed offensive of the Russian Federation.
"Do Putin's goals for Ukraine are declining?" - emphasizes in the title of his text Columnist Bloomberg Leonid Bershidsky and immediately shares his hypothesis in response to this question: "The seeming expansion of Russia's territorial ambitions is a sign of relative war weakness, not strength. " Bershidsky reminds that the goals of the invasion of Russia are changing monthly - especially after the Russian army had to retreat from the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions.
He calls not even to call Moscow's aspirations "goals" because they are "unattainable in the near future" with those resources that the Kremlin and the Russians themselves ("as a mostly passive population") are ready to allocate for invasion. "Dreams are probably the best correspondent," - hearses the intentions of the Russian Federation Bloomberg.
He suggests that there is an increasing discrepancy between such fantasies of the occupiers, which even officials of Lavrov's rank are now publicly declared, and the real state of affairs of the Russian army in Ukraine can be explained by several versions.
The simplest of them - unable to achieve the establishment of a puppet pro -Kremliv government in "cut in Ukraine (without Crimea and two eastern regions)", Putin instead seeks to capture and annex the maximum number of lands outside Donetsk and Luhansk regions - which is consistent with the plans Accession to the Russian Federation.
However, "much more likely" the author calls the combination of this version with another: that any "planning" of the Kremlin has a reactive and situational, not strategic nature. “The Kremlin's hopes seem to be formed by events on the front. Any change in the martial law leads to a new "plan", which in the case of its implementation will allow Putin to announce the victory, "-said Bershidsky.
For example, Putin's attention, apparently, has been switched to the protection of Russian conquests in the south, where Ukraine is gathering forces for a large counterattack in the Kherson region, and in the east, where the Ukrainian soldiers, thanks to Western artillery, are firing targets in Donetsk and its surroundings.
In this light, the plan to annex the Ukrainian lands as soon as possible corresponds to the "protective thinking" of the Kremlin, according to the Bloomberg Coloomberg, because it will give Moscow a formal reason to "protect" the occupied territories as their own - including spreading "nuclear parasolka" on them.
"If Putin was still on the offensive, he would try to seize more territories, including at least another regional center except Kherson, and then tried to conclude a peace agreement on his terms before claiming even larger lands for Russia," - writes writes author. In this case, massive pressure in the Donetsk region would have already begun, but neither ISW analysts nor other experts are observed.
“The maintenance of the invasion of the Kremlin seems to be a priority captured in the first chaotic weeks. Paradoxically, but the expansion of territorial ambitions is a sign of relative military weakness, not strength, ”Bershidsky said. That is why any search for a compromise with the Russian Federation from the event at this stage does not make sense, he is convinced.
"Why offer something to Putin if he is increasingly ready to agree to less (even if" less "can sometimes look like" more ", at least in terms of occupied square miles)?" - explains Bershid. At the end of his column, he suggests Rob Lee, a senior researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research and one of the most active observers in the Ukrainian war.
"The starting point of the end of this war is the formation of such a military balance of forces, when Russia could not move further," Lee stated. The important factor of unrealistic expansionist statements of the Kremlin is indicated by the experts of the Institute of War and the New York Times interviewed by experts: it is a sign of signs of depletion of the army of the Russian Federation for large -scale terrestrial operations.
"It is unlikely that the Russian forces occupy a considerable additional territory of Ukraine to the alleged start of the annexation process in early autumn," the ISW analysts said in its summary on July 27. During the week, they emphasize daily that the culmination of Russian terrestrial offensive will probably attempt to capture Bakhmut and Siversk.
Over the past few weeks, Russian troops have not achieved significant successes in the direction of Slavyansk or along the Siversk-Bakhmut line and continue to exhaust their offensive battle in local battles for small and relatively unimportant settlements throughout Donetsk region, "ISW experts report July 21.
They suggest that the constant pressure of the Russian power and the recent efforts of Moscow in the direction of "volunteer" mobilization can still bring the Russian army "limited successes in the coming days or weeks". However, they are reminiscent of ISW, Russian troops are now difficult to promote relatively sparsely populated and open areas of Donbass.
But soon they will have to face "the terrain, much more favorable for Ukrainian defenders" - as they approach the E40 route in the Slavyansk and Bakhmut region due to the increase in population density and the construction of these areas. "Thus, the current Russian offensive in the Donbass is likely to reach the apogee somewhere on the E40 route in the next weeks (in eastern Ukraine part of it lies with the Kharkiv - Izium - Slavyansk - Bakhmut - Ed. ) Study of the war.
Similar conclusions are voiced by military experts who have been spoken by American NYT. The publication reminds that according to the Assessment of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, the army of the Russian Federation has lost 40,000 people in Ukraine. Although this indicator differs with the estimates of the West, in the US and Europe agree that the war has struck a huge blow to the Russian army.
"Russia has gathered what I call a steam cat," said Ben Barry, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, referring to the military power of the Russian Army, including artillery. "We do not know when a couple is exhausted in it. " According to him, the critical question is to achieve Moscow's "culminating point" - a point in which "the offensive has exhausted inventories or suffered so many losses that it is no longer impossible to continue.
" There are some evidence that such a moment may approach, states NYT, reminding that Russia's offensive operations in eastern Ukraine have not brought it significant strategic success in a few weeks. It could be assumed that Moscow specifically increases the pace of the offensive.
However, Phillips O'Brayen, a professor of strategic research at Saint-Endray University in Scotland, states that the scale of artillery strikes of the Russian Federation in Donetsk region also decreased, as evidenced by the latest data from NASA satellites, which fix the centers of fires and heat. Last but not least, this is facilitated by the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces on Russian Western Ammunition warehouses, NYT reminds.
At the same time, Moscow has significantly increased the scale of long -range missile strikes, including in the south of Ukraine, where Ukraine hopes to go on a counter -offensive, the newspaper notes. The London Royal Joint Defense Research Institute in a recent report calls on the West to help Ukraine cope with this challenge, since in the long run the events on the forefront are even less important than the "deep power of competing military vehicles".
The result of the conflict can be determined by factors such as effective training and training of troops, their logistics and supply, British experts say. The closest check of the forces of the Russian Federation for sustainability will be the possible counter -offensive of Ukraine in the Kherson region, writes NYT, which can be for the Armed Forces "the most ambitious attempt to return the territory".
Vadim Denysenko, along with the fights in the Donbass, also declared the crucial importance of the Battle of Kherson and South of Ukraine, together with the fights in the Donbass, commenting on the version of Forreign Policy about Moscow's plans to attack Odessa in early 2023. “Everything will depend on these things - the battle for Odessa, the end of the war, and much more.
Therefore, I think, I think, it is unlikely that anyone can predict at all, ”Denysenko added, noting that he would not predict even a time frame of Kherson counter -offensive. Another reason for the Kremlin threats about the change of "geographical tasks" of the invasion was voiced by the governments and intelligence of several Western countries.
Thus, German Foreign Minister Annalen Berb reminded Sergey Lavrov that his arguments for expanding the invasion goals were allegedly unfounded through the supply of Western weapons. “Russia uses different arguments every time. This time they say it is because of military support. But they have already attacked Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine in the past. So it's just a new propaganda from the Russian side, ”Berbok emphasized.
The propaganda effect of Lavrov's imagination was also explained in the Armed Forces of Canada. It is believed that in this way Moscow tries to explain the internal audience of the capture of the territories of Ukraine outside the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. While the real whole army of the Russian Federation is likely to be declining. "Due to significant losses of personnel and equipment, Russia probably has no military potential for the realization of its ambitions in Ukraine," Canada said.
"It is now forced to reduce the scale of its strategic goals while providing a new public justification for the partial territorial control achieved. " A similar score was recently given by British intelligence, which is regularly published by the Ministry of Defense of Britain. There they called the "false" statement of Lavrov that the Russian Federation seeks to seize new territories in response to the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine. "Russia did not" expand "its war.
The establishment and maintenance of long -term control over these territories [outside the ORDLO, including the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya region] was most likely the initial purpose of the invasion, ”the UK's reconnaissance said of July 24. They also reminded that Russia invaded these territories in February, and the illegitimate "occupation power" publicly discusses the prospects for pseudo -referendums at least from mid -March.
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