"The fight with the TCC in Odesa is no accident": how Russia and the inaction of the Ukrainian authorities are creating a "war" in the rear

On the morning of October 30, in Bazovoy Lane in the city of Odesa, near the "7th Kilometer" market, there was a conflict between loaders of warehouses and employees of the Territorial Center for Procurement and Social Support (TCC and SP). The fight began in the area of ​​the asphalt plant and warehouses, and already at the intersection with Bazova Street, it turned into a fight. As a result of the events, the loaders overturned the official minibus of TCC representatives.

The Odesa regional TCC and SP reported that a group of people attacked military personnel, as a result of which the official vehicle was damaged, and among the employees of the center were also injured. "We regard this case not simply as hooliganism or an act of protest, but as a direct attack and an attempt to forcefully obstruct legal mobilization measures," the message said.

Currently, law enforcement officers are conducting urgent investigative actions to identify the persons involved in the offense. This is not the first separate conflict surrounding mobilization measures, but on this scale — with active resistance and violent actions — the incident appears unprecedented in wartime. He raised the issue of the risk of internal escalation of confrontation with the TCC — from fights to the use of weapons.

According to military expert Oleh Zhdanov, the situation in Odesa reflects what is happening in the state and in politics — in the internal politics of the top leadership. "This is the result of their work, in particular the president. No matter how the president's responsibility is deleted in the new law, the mobilization is still carried out on the basis of the president's decree. The one who gives the order is the one who bears the responsibility.

Even if it was removed from the text of the law," Zhdanov says to Focus. According to the expert, the mass dismissal of military commissars in 2023 actually destroyed the old military accounting system, but a new one was never created. "The old system was thrown out, and then nothing was built. We got chaos, which now spills over into street conflicts," he explains. Zhdanov is convinced: the state should start not with punitive raids, but with communication, social policy and motivation.

"Mannerheim once said: in order for people to go to defend the state, it is necessary to create conditions in which they themselves agree to go. These are information policy, social protection and material interest," the expert noted. In Zhdanov's opinion, during the war, the authorities never once increased the financial support of military personnel and did not expand the social package.

"Deputies cannot find money for the military, but at the same time they make controversial decisions, such as allowing men aged 18-22 to go abroad. Now they admit it was a mistake, but people have already left," he says. In the absence of systematic motivation, a phenomenon appeared, which the expert calls "busification" — that is, the replacement of voluntary agitation by forced raids.

Comparing the situation with the Russian situation, the expert admits that the enemy worked more effectively with contractors. "The Russians raised payments, motivated people with money and kept a reserve for almost four years. If we cannot motivate ideologically, we must motivate materially. This is gingerbread. But at the same time, there must be a "whip" - a clear punishment for violation of discipline. The state must wake up and start performing its functions.

Motivation and punishment - this is how a normal democratic system works. We must not become a dictatorship with only a whip. But even without a gingerbread, people cannot will go to the front," the expert emphasizes. Zhdanov adds that even in the Russian army at first there was a system of financial incentives, and only now it is beginning to crack. "And we didn't even create a reserve army. And now we are dealing with the consequences of this inaction," he says.

Former SBU employee, military expert Ivan Stupak believes that these cadres from Odessa are not only an internal problem, but also a serious information risk for Ukraine. "This video will most likely go viral. It's a gift for the Russian Federation. They don't even have to invent or film anything. At the beginning of the war, they created their "cormorant films", and now they just use our content.

We ourselves, Ukrainians, generate materials that then become propaganda against us," says Focusu Stupak. According to the expert, Russian propagandists do not create this content for their own audience — the main target is Ukrainians. "It's important for them to show us themselves. Like, look at what Odessa is doing - why don't they do it in Dnipro or Kharkiv? It's a method of incitement. And, unfortunately, it works. All that remains for Russia is to "wrap it up" and submit it," explains Stupak.

He emphasizes: the problem is not in the video as such, but in the lack of trust in the mobilization system itself. According to the expert, when people see someone being taken away by force, and someone in an expensive car with a pass from the local administration calmly driving across closed bridges, it destroys social unity. "People are not idiots, they see that the war has become a war for the poor. The rich are paying off," he says. The expert emphasizes: there are no quick solutions here.

The only way out is a complete change of the system based on trust - "the TCC must not take bribes and kill people. " In his opinion, the situation can be changed only through punishment of violators and transparency of the system. "If those who abuse are jailed, and it happens publicly, then society will begin to believe. But it's a long process," Stupak adds. According to the expert, the mobilization crisis began after the corruption scandals in the TCC.

When people saw how Borysov earned millions of dollars as a soldier, and each subsequent soldier had a million euros, society simply lost trust. People don't want to be part of a system that has discredited itself. The expert emphasizes: trust arises when the state itself keeps its promises. "Do you remember how the military was promised one hundred thousand hryvnias a month? How many people actually received it? Most of them were thirty thousand, because formally they are not at "zero".

Or when people die near Bakhmut, but according to the documents, they appear at the Yavoriv training ground - families spend months trying to get compensation. This is systemic injustice. The system can only work when people believe in it. If the state fulfills its promises, if the TCC acts honestly, if they are guilty - then punishment motivation appears. Otherwise, it's just a repressive machine against which they begin to resist," says Stupak.

Yevhen Dykiy, a military analyst and ATO veteran, calls the events in Odessa both shocking and completely expected. In his opinion, this case is the result of Russia's three-year systematic work to disrupt mobilization in Ukraine and three years of complete inactivity of the Ukrainian authorities.

According to Dyky, the Russian special services have been conducting a targeted campaign against mobilization since 2022: through intelligence networks, chatbots, Telegram channels and social networks, they are spreading misinformation, inciting people and discrediting the Armed Forces. At the same time, the expert says, the Ukrainian authorities avoided the very topic of mobilization, considering it "toxic" before the elections.

"The authorities do not explain anything to the people - why mobilization is unpleasant, but inevitable. All issues have been transferred to the TCC. And from the local to the central level - complete silence. On the contrary, politicians have begun to flirt with the dodgers. Because their electorate is not at the front, but in the rear. And there are more of them. This has become a political course of sympathy for those who do not fight," - says Dykiy to Focus.

The veteran emphasizes that such actions as in Odesa should be qualified not as hooliganism, but as treason. "We know very well that these incidents are coordinated by the Russian agency. And aiding the agency is treason. But the article "treason" does not apply at all. There are no sentences even for obstructing the activities of the Armed Forces," he emphasizes. Yevhen Dykiy draws a direct parallel between the situation in the rear and the events at the front.

"While they are fighting the TCC in the rear, we are losing Myrnograd and Pokrovsk at the front. The battles are going on inside the cities only because of one thing - the lack of people. In Kupyansk and Donetsk region, the front is held by exhausted units. And there are no new fighters. The need for a new wave of mobilization was clear as early as the fall of 2022, when Russia started its own. We started talking about it only a year later, and acting even later.

And we still haven't done the main thing," he says a veteran According to Dyky, Ukraine has still not made two key decisions without which the mobilization system will not be able to work: "If this continues, we will lose the war in a few months - not because of weapons, but because of the lack of people," the expert warns. Dyky is convinced: in cases of attack on military personnel, TCC employees should have the right to use weapons.

"When a soldier is raised in the rear, it is no different from what an enemy soldier does at the front. There he has the right to shoot back - and here he should have the same right. Moreover, such actions should not be punished, but rewarded. Now, on the contrary, the TCC is being made into scapegoats - nothing can be done to them, but everything can be done to them," he says. According to Dyky, the situation has reached its limit.

"Either the authorities change the policy of mobilization immediately — with the adoption of the necessary laws, with the real persecution of the Russian agents and the organizers of the resistance — or we must honestly admit that it is not capable of doing it. Then let the army itself recruit people. But that will be the end of the system," the expert concluded.