Supplies and did not plan: through the US Armed Forces can lose up to 30% of weapons - Defense Express

On March 4, the editor -in -chief of Defense Express Oleg Katkov announced this in a comment on "Public". He explained that approximately 40% of the weapons of defense forces - Ukrainian production or were in warehouses before the start of a full -scale war. A little more than 10% is American weapons, provided directly or through European allies. Other almost 30% - European weapons, which is largely dependent on Washington's permission for re -export.

Theoretically, Ukraine can lose up to 30% of its arsenal if the United States completely locks military assistance and prohibit re -export. This would not only affect the American but also a large part of European weapons. However, the expert stressed that it is the worst, most percentic scenario. "If you turn on a healthy realism, the situation seems that Ukraine should get what was in (Joe-Ed. ) Baiden has been announced.

And this will in any case allow us not to feel critical dependence on the US for some time," Katkov said. He said that the previous administration at the end of the cadence created a certain amount of safety for Ukraine to provide the Armed Forces with a weapon for a large part of 2025. One thing that is enough for this stock will depend on the intensity of combat and the dynamics of losses.

According to the analyst, greater dependence on the US weapons in critical areas such as air defense and aviation. It is not only about the F-16, but also ammunition to them. Much of the armored vehicles received by Ukraine is also American production. In addition, Washington supplied cassette ammunition, remote meters, anti -personnel mines and other weapons.

At the same time, Katkov assured that new supplies to Ukraine were not planned before the emotional meeting of US President Donald Trump with the leader Vladimir Zelensky. As he stressed, at the end of 2024 it was obvious that Washington's political line was changing. There were no signs of preparation of new weapons packages, and representatives of the Republican Party said directly that they were not interested in support.

"It should be understood that under the USAI program, when weapons were ordered from manufacturers, there were contracts there were about 2026-2027 even. It would come," the expert explained. However, if the Trump administration blocks production processes on these long -term contracts, it can be a critical blow to the Armed Forces. Particularly vulnerable are the air defense complexes that depend on American missiles, including Patriot and NASAMS.

Ukraine also depends on the supply of 155 mm artillery shells, which in 2023-2024 received from the United States about one million per year. The analyst has warned that it is impossible to replace the United States completely. First, much of the key weapons-American production. Secondly, even those allies that already have some reserves cannot transfer weapons without Washington's permission.