Putin wasted the chance to leave the war: why the Kremlin "not hears" the event and prepares for new attacks

British who are oriented The data of our GSH also indicate a tendency to reduce losses. The reason is the completion of the cycle that began in the fall and the regrouping of the troops. The Russians continue an active offensive with the transfer of additional forces to those areas where success (Lyman, south and west of Pokrovsk), as well as during preparation for attack on Konstantinovka. But to put the former pressure throughout the front is temporarily incapable.

The losses of troops of the Russian Federation remain relatively high and, importantly, the accuracy of the numbers increases as there is video confirmation. Great losses against the backdrop of reducing the captured area, that is, material results on the battlefield, are full of height to the Kremlin - how to continue and continue? April was the perfect month between cycles so Putin could jump out of war by keeping his face. Americans have done everything you need.

The curtailment of surgery in the Kursk region also removed an additional barrier. The other day, the media dispersed a comment with reference to the assessments of Western intelligence and officials that Putin could adjust the short -term whole war. Having emphasized to strengthen control over the captured territories. Which was regarded as another marker of readiness for some agreement. 2. However.

Our intelligence gave evaluations, in Western media there were several materials evaluating the number of mercenaries that the Kremlin is gaining in stimuli. The figure varies in the range of 30-40 thousand people per month. With such mathematics, Rosarmia goes into zero, replenishing irreversible and sanitary losses, but has problems with increasing numbers.

Spring conscription of seizures, which will be transformed into contractors, Koreans and twisting nuts with the involvement of vulnerable categories will give a gap to accumulate reserves. An additional resource in the "sleeve" in Moscow is the release of troops during regroups and completion of a number of operations. In the coming months, two of them will try to fill in the shortage of 70 thousand people who were not enough for the planned indicators according to our GS.

Despite the fact that they will not work them by technique by staff, the current nature of war (storms on mopeds) is a material basis for another rolling. 3. Both Americans and Europeans know these schedules. Hence a number of statements from the United States to prepare to reduce the role of Washington in the negotiation process. The deck said directly that the rapid end of the war does not expect.

Have you noticed how the EU reacted instantly, detached from the hypothetical role of the mediator? This is what I wrote about yesterday: Europe takes time, the continuation of the war is a bad but best solution for them. Thus, the material basis of the moment is the presence of Putin's resources for another offensive. But political maneuvers against the background of the material basis are a separate plot. 4.

In March-April, the United States built a track behind which Putin could go into the Deescalation regime. This was solved by Trump's task, it solved Putin's task. Defective opened the opportunity on a high note to pass 100 days and May 9. But Putin whether he really believed in large -scale military success, whether he was playing and underestimating the moment, rolling out a frankly provocative topic with a truce for three days. As a result, he began to formulate an alternative in real time.

Initially, there was a flow of statements from the US and Europe that the three -day "truce" was nonsense. Then the avalanche of throwing new sanctions began, against the backdrop of news about Saudi Arabia, to play the price of oil. Hence the decorative permission to sell a complex of aviation services to Ukraine. In fact, it changes nothing, but denotes the vector. And here is Trump with his post about America's leading role in victory over Hitler.

Since the atmosphere of de -escalation has been replaced by the mood for escalation, the leader of Serbia Alexander Vuchich and the leader of Slovaks Robert Fitzo suddenly and synchronously "became ill". This is what I said: to go to Moscow against the backdrop of escalation is a demarche against Trump. The synchronous ailment looks very funny, but showy. If the wind changes, it is likely that both politicians will also heal in synchronous and find themselves in Moscow.

Today, Zelensky's statement coincided that Ukraine does not guarantee the safety of foreign delegations in the Russian Federation on May 9. We began to disperse it in the spirit "We are a parade. " Although it is necessary to take the words of the President in literally: the FSB has already started to publicly warm the topic with terrorist attacks on May 9. The Russians are preparing to undermine some demonstration. This is the frontal preparation of the Escalation from the Kremlin.

From the world capitals, Putin is literally said: friend, we understand what game you started. Do not do this, do not continue the war, we will not drive you into the corner, just do not do nonsense, and will provide you with a good departure. The words of the sofa about a couple of kilometers back and forth-from this series. Like: to what? 5. The situation on the battlefield is objectively difficult. The Russian army adapts, they still have resources.

However, with all known problems at the front and in the rear, the Ukrainian army became a very formidable force. As a result, the purely military results of another Putin attack may be insufficient to be conversion to political dividends. That is why Kharkiv, Odesa, Zaporozhye and other cities are undergoing massive attacks. The scale of these attacks is such that it cannot provide a military result. This is only a political event - terror.

Exhausted proof of the terrorist nature of air attacks-the Russians are filled with explosives and impressive elements even drones. To kill anyone, to light up at least something. It is the most unprecedented means to strike on civilian, purest terrorism. Putin's political means wants to push the right political result - because of fear of changing public sentiment in Ukraine and to create conditions for accepting the inadequate requirements of Moscow.

The experience of three years proves that the effectiveness of any military measures is wavy. There is an antidote. I do not know if we have a margin of strength/flexibility to neutralize the growing attacks of drones. These may well be asymmetrical measures. They are exactly looking for. But obviously: political challenges are treated with political means.

This requires either military victories with a political result (which General Budanov said directly a few months ago) or an adequate domestic political program. Otherwise called - a positive agenda. There must be something good. And it is not about imitation and propaganda. Something should be directed to the future and realistically improve. For business. For school teachers. For different categories. Without this, the effect of the Kremlin so long will accumulate. 6. Alternatives on the table.

The diplomacy window has not yet been closed. But the score goes literally at the bottom. Now the moment when China in one click can set the direction. What clearly shows what development - war or peace - considers more profitable for itself. These days, Putin has a double holiday. Against the backdrop of the 80th anniversary of victory, they accelerate the plot with the 25th anniversary of Putin as the Russian leader. Now there is a straightforward moment to fix success and world -historical role.

Or you can get a greased celebration, and autumn meet with a loaded army and a torn economy. The Kremlin can prepare the fixation of success for the second part of the 80th anniversary of the victory, which will be celebrated in September in the Far East. But something tells me: Trump will have a motivation to spoil this raspberry, which risks turning into a Russian-Chinese-Pyenian benefit.