30 by 70. The likelihood of change of power in Russia before the election - increased

Some from the Western media had to give this "exclusive". 3. We can say with a large proportion of probability that he "started" Prigogine to Putin Kovalchuk. It will need to be monitored, but it seems that Kovalchuk in tandem with Kirienko become the most influential group in the Kremlin. For us, this is not the best signal: this tandem is the smartest and most systematic environment in Putin. 4.

Regarding the leadership of the army, Putin continues to play the old "Syrian game" here: not to create new "beetles" (in Syria, the head of the Russian military group was kept in a management position for 7-9 months). Now the same will be with the leadership of the so -called one. At the same time, Putin is convinced that Ukraine will not be able to squeeze mine fields in the south of Ukraine and thinks that it is possible to particularly worry for the war. 5.

As for Prigogine, he never closed his media holding and remains the main Russian in Africa. He "reduced the revolutions", but he is aware of the right opportunity to break into politics. And Putin cannot be eliminated, neither now nor in the short term (reasons - read clause 1). 6. In general, now, apparently, the situation at the top has managed to stabilize somewhat. But this stabilization is to create a virtual world for the comfort of one person - Putin.

Groups of influence will be a certain period in Putin the illusion of his omnipotence to manipulate it. How long will this lull last, while it is very difficult to say. The only thing you can say is that this construct cannot be durable. The main question of whether the Kremlin's influence will be taught to start transit of the authorities before the next presidential election. As long as the likelihood of such a process is 30 to 70.