Army uprising against Putin: Can a "Victory Plan" influence riots in
In his opinion, to release the whole territory of Ukraine in a military way for a modern type of war is nonsense. "It is necessary to create pressure in certain areas - separately military, separately economic," he said. According to him, military coercion is an expansion of hostilities in the territory of the Russian Federation, in particular, because of long -range blows deep into the enemy.
Transfer of battles can cause fear of Russians, which will become a "sharp protest", it will be the "final of a just war. " Podolyak stressed that Ukraine should cause "sensitive defeat" to Moscow on the front and in the economic field, which will lead to the revolutionary process in the country, but not to its collapse, but a change in the political elite. The focus has learned whether there was a possibility of riots in the Russian Federation and what it could lead to.
Political scientist Oleg Posternak said in a conversation with focus that he did not believe in any major social rebellions in the Russian Federation. He noted that there are issues related to the current political and economic situation in Russia, which can even plot some of Russian society, but there are also visual examples of consolidation of such behavior as unsuccessful protests that lead only to imprisonment.
"Probably, starting with the marshmallow of 2011-2012, the so-called White Revolution in Russia, no successful case of social, political protests of the Russian Federation, which would end with success for protesters the probability of generating some protest wave is extremely low, ”says Posternak.
According to him, if you ask the question of the change of power, it concerns the intrigue of hardware coups, to the conspiracy of the environment of the Russian elite and oligarchy, but does not depend on the population. There is part of a society that can be dissatisfied with socio-economic status and even war, mostly these people live in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and large regional centers.
He noted that the other peripheral part of Russia is conservative, the population has been accustomed to living with low social standards for a long time, not inclined to transfer its problems to federal power, knowing that it is unpromising. "Therefore, I do not see any glimpse of the opportunity to generate any social waves," the political scientist said.
Political scientist Igor Raitovich said focus that he now sees no particular prerequisites for some large -scale social protests in the Russian Federation. In his opinion, it is necessary to understand what can be their cause and in what area they can happen. "If we talk about some political stories, a revolution, then there is no point in commenting on something, it's just impossible now.
There is no alternative to Putin's regime in Russia, there is no opposition, and by and large, no one will speak with any ideas there, return to democracy , to restore democratic traditions, " - said Igor Raitovich.
Reitovich noted that social speeches are possible only when there is a very bad situation in the economy, and the Russian Federation will not be able to fulfill even the minimum obligations that the country has taken over, guarantee a minimal social level to those segments of the population that are the basis of the regime and key electorate of Putin. He stressed that according to Russian and Western economists, such serious economic problems may occur no earlier than the second half of 2025.
"The only protests that can take place either with some new mass mobilization that Russia is not in a hurry to declare and carry out, or may concern, for example, those who have already been mobilized, whom they do not want to return and somehow may It is related to members of their families, "he explained.
According to him, this can be added here with the stitches, but the Russian authorities very quickly extinguished it and pulled out the periods from the advanced in order not to give a reason for some additional performances. There is another option-intra-ethnic, intra-religious stories, but the authorities of the Russian Federation have resources and opportunities to keep this situation more or less control.
However, some performances may cause blackberries in the Russian Federation, but you need to have resources. "I still doubt the opportunity to make this key rate and hope that the Russians will go outside, start pressing on power and this will, in fact, will block the regime. Strength in this regime, unfortunately, is still there, and it is serious enough As in view of the terms that Ukraine speaks of, and which, in fact, expects, representing his so -called peace plan, " - said Rititovich.
The political scientist reported that it is possible to influence protests in the Russian Federation through mobilization, and for this purpose there should be a bad situation for the enemy at the front. In particular, a certain wave can be caused by a large defeat on the front. "As it was in the Kursk region, there was a wave. It was quickly extinguished, but it was when the durables were captured, etc. ," he said.
In addition, Blackut can be most lowered in the Russian Federation, especially if it happens in Moscow, St. Petersburg. He noted that there are very bad ones between the regions of Russia, there is a hatred of these major cities. So everything else considers that they do not live so much, and therefore something needs to be done with them. "Therefore, if it is there, it can cause some protests, riots, a spontaneous nature with robberies.
But it takes Russia or some part to plunge into the atmosphere of this Black. Political scientist. Posternak noted that there were protests in the territory of the Russian Federation, in particular, in the Khabarovsk Territory, Dagestan, after the beginning of a full -scale invasion. However, this only leads to a demonstration of a picture, which is a small part of society, which is against the Kremlin's official line.
A real change in power can only occur when the Russian army returns against Putin. "Fring on Putin's face after the Prigogine rebellion is probably a very visual illustration that Putin is really frightening. Only a rebellion in his Russian army, where an officer who will already understand all the adventurousness and futility Putin, "Oleg Posternak emphasized.
When asked about changes in the event of another political elite in the Russian Federation, Raitovich replied that it all depends on what elite it is about. For example, he does not see Putin's alternative. "The belief that if Putin die and some other people will come to power, it will automatically mean the beautiful democratic Russia of the future, as some Russian oppositionists say, it is a very naive opinion. It will not be.
, a softer form of authoritarianism, which will be characterized by a collective type of decision. To the authorities, how to do everything to save the authorities, "the political scientist said. According to him, Ukraine can take advantage of this situation. The authorities in the Russian Federation will not be before the war, it will want to reconcile, including the West.
Russia will also need a certain pause, the completion of the active phase, everything else is unlikely because there are no democratic elites and perception in Russian society and the desire of democracy. "Yes that we will have something like Putin, only collective, well, of course, less aggressive, because the more people, the longer they will make a decision. It is clear that they will not want to continue the war from the beginning from the beginning.
The authorities to establish themselves, "he added. Oleg Posternak believes that in the event of a change in the political elite in Russia, the war will be completed. Moscow also has a chance to change their geopolitical orientation and hope for the abolition of sanctions, understanding through the return of Ukrainian territories, payments of reparations. "This is all that theoretically can be said in some future case of change of power.
While in power Putin, I do not see such a perspective," he added. We will remind, on September 29 Presidential Office Andriy Yermak said that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will present "Victory Plan" to Ukrainians after showing his US leader Joe Biden. According to him, some initiative points will be secret, as they can be "very sensitive".