What is the probability of nuclear impact and what will be the consequences?
Such an act of despair, of course, will be the most horrifying turn in the history of mankind since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 3. If there is a nuclear stroke, it will be a tactical charge. 4. Putin may use the liberation of Ukrainian territories that, after pseudo -referendums (which no one recognized), he will consider Russia. In fact, it is a blackmail so that Ukraine stops counter -offensive. 5. Background: - the power of the smallest tactical nuclear warhead is up to one kilotonic in TNT equivalent.
The largest can be up to 100 kiloton. Strategic nuclear weapons are more powerful - up to 1000 kiloton. It is used at long distances, at a distance of thousands of kilometers. It can equalize the whole city with the ground. 6. According to American intelligence, Russia has about two thousand tactical nuclear charges. It's a lot. 7.
Tactical nuclear offices can be placed on various missiles, which are also used with ordinary warheads, such as winged or operative-tactical missiles, as well as in artillery shells. 8. The place of the task of the impact, if Putin decides to do so, may be military facilities larger than cities, including Kyiv. Here you can model the effects of a nuclear explosion, depending on the power of the charge. 9.
Tactical nuclear weapons will not cause enormous destruction - it will not be Hiroshima or Nagasaki. Most likely, it will be 0. 4 or 0. 8 kiloton. 10. The infection zone will have an elliptical shape depending on the wind rose at the time of the explosion. Plus the radioactive cloud, which will take the wind, will fall in the form of radioactive precipitation 11. The instruction what to do in the case of a nuclear explosion can be seen here. 12.
Tactical nuclear weapons have never been used in real military conflict. Nuclear states, such as the United States or Russia, believe that the achievement of tactical goals is enough and simple modern weapons. In addition, no nuclear state has yet wanted to risk the solution of nuclear war after applying. 13. In the defeat at the theater of fighting, Russia tries through the blackmail of Ukraine and all over the world - to end the war, leaving itself the captured territories.
The likelihood of losing Russia in this military campaign is increasing daily as the strengthening of the Ukrainian army and the increase in Russian losses. The mobilization of 1. 2 million people already shows Russia's inability to provide mobilized conditions of residence, uniforms and weapons. The threat of nuclear weapons is an attempt to stop Ukraine's activity in clearing the captured territories and pressure on the civilized world to "work with Ukraine" and reduce assistance. 14.
Why the use of gravity by Russia is pointless: - a blow to Kiev will not make Ukrainians surrender, while even more united the world around Ukraine; - A blow in the front line from the accumulation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces - will create risks for the Russian army. At the same time, it is not necessary to expect the weakening of the pressure of Ukrainians, but the world is also united against Russia. 15.
Reaction to blackmail: - US President Joe Biden urged Russia not to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine. - NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg called Putin's nuclear rhetoric with dangerous and reckless. In an interview with Reuters, he stated that the Alliance would do his best to convey to Moscow the seriousness of such statements. 17.
The reaction of the world to a possible nuclear strike: - China, which uses the doctrine "Do not use nuclear weapons first", if used - turn away from Russia - the use of nuclear weapons will change the doctrine of security in the world and create the main purpose - Russia's denuclearization and change her mode. - This will change the attitude to Russia and the "neutral countries" of Italy, India, Brazil and others.
- Washington will remove any restrictions on the supply of weapons to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. -It will force countries that have abandoned nuclear weapons for non-proliferation or disarmament, as Ukraine did in the 1990s, to create its own arsenals. - The best military variant of events can be a blow to the US on Russian troops. The purpose may be the base that caused the nuclear stroke. Can it be Russian troops in Ukraine.
- And this creates the conditions for the direct confrontation of NATO and Russia, in which Russia never win. Everyone saw as the 2nd Army of the world rags to the 21st. 18. The number of nuclear warheads can be seen here. 19. Putin's role. As far as I understand, almost no one supports a losing military company from Putin's immediate surroundings because no one wants to be responsible. Putin, as intelligence says, took command of war on himself. Either does not trust or face sabotage.
It is important to remember that he has a lot of complexes since childhood. He is a pathological coward and paranoid. He, however, no longer looks and does not act as a normal person, and many of his actions are not predictable. Instead of conclusions. - The likelihood of a nuclear stroke, of course, is, but it will be (if it will be) a nail in the cover of the coffin of modern Russia. - The consequences of this step will be much more difficult and more significant than the benefits he could gain.