"Nightmare" for Europe or repetition of Afghanistan: 5 scenarios end of war in Ukraine
If Trump and Putin still meet, the states will insist on the organization of a tripartite summit with the participation of President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky to discuss the termination of the war. The purpose of Russia is probably that Putin will draw Trump into the orbit of Moscow rhetoric. The organization of meetings raises the question of ways to complete a full -scale war. Here are five possible scenarios: an extremely unlikely option.
The USA, Europe and Ukraine demanded to pause in the fighting in May. The event threatened Russia with sanctions, but the idea failed. Trump abandoned sanctions, preferring delegations of Ukraine and the Russian Federation in Istanbul, which led only to the exchange of prisoners. In addition, the 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure facilities was essentially not observed.
The army of the Russian Federation transforms gradual successes into a forefront to strategic advantages and does not see the point of stopping progress. The threat of Trump's sanctions against China and India will not change Moscow's military calculation by the end of the summer. By October, Putin will continue to fight because he wins. Negotiation participants could agree on further meetings with the consolidation of Russian success with the onset of winter. The front line is frozen in October.
At that time, Putin may occupy Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka and Kupyansk, which will give him a strong position until winter and the opportunity to regroup troops. After that, in 2026 the attacks may resume, or the war will end diplomatically. Putin can also raise the issue of elections in Ukraine that were not conducted in war and try to make the president of the pro -Russian candidate.
With uninterrupted military assistance, the US and Europe of the Armed Forces will be able to minimize the promotion of Russians and push Putin to negotiate. Pokrovsk may fall and other cities can be threatened. Russia, meanwhile, feels the effects of sanctions and overheating of the economy. Tens of thousands of NATO countries could also accommodate around Kiev and other major cities, providing logistics and intelligence support to Ukraine.
"This is the best that Ukraine can hope for," the observers believe. Putin could notice clear gaps in the unity of the event. Europe can support Kyiv, but will not break the situation at the front without American support. In this case, there will be a slow defeat of Ukrainian troops in the Donbass and in the central areas. In this case, Kyiv's security will be threatened again.
And if European states believe that it is better to fight with Russia in Ukraine than in their territory, they will calculate. "European leaders have no political mandate to join the war in Ukraine. Putin is moving forward, NATO cannot give a single answer. It is a nightmare for Europe and the end of sovereign Ukraine," the text reads. Russia can lose thousands of soldiers in Ukraine every week for relatively small victories.
Meanwhile, sanctions will undermine its economy, which will cause income and weapons. Dissatisfaction with the Moscow elite can be exacerbated by the Kremlin's warlike policy. The mass economic crisis in Russia will be detrimental. A similar short -sighted calculation contributed to the losses of Soviet in Afghanistan. "Putin is strong, at first glance, it does not look weak.
The problem of this scenario is that it is the only hope of Western strategists who can neither allow NATO's full entry into the war for the victory of Ukraine, nor strengthen Kiev's ability to give Moscow a military way," the analysts emphasize. The conclusions of the article emphasize that none of the above scenarios is suitable for Ukraine. Only one of them implies the defeat of Russia and termination of threat to European security.