Active "Phase 0": Russia accelerates preparation for war with NATO - isw
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service has stated that the United Kingdom is planning an attack on the Navy of the Armed Forces or a foreign civilian ship in the European port by the hands of pro -Ukrainian Russians. The SVR claims that saboteurs will be convinced of the work of Moscow. In addition, the British will allegedly provide them with Chinese submarine equipment to accuse Beijing of supporting aggression against Ukraine. This is stated in the ISW report on October 6.
"The SVR's statement of October 6 is a continuation of such SVR statements about counterfeit transactions against European states such as Poland, Moldova and Serbia, and in recent weeks of SVR, such statements are increasingly making statements that it testifies to a new agreed model of activity," it stressed. Probably, Russia conducts coordinated training within the stage of creation of physical and psychological conditions for military emergencies.
In recent years, the aggressor country has made a variety of open and hidden attacks against NATO members, including sabotage, arson, cyberattacks and muffling and GPS. It is noted that in the fall of the Russian Federation sharply increased its attacks, in particular by the invasion of its UAV into NATO airspace. According to analysts, this indicates an entry into Phase 0 - the first stage of preparation for the transition to a higher level of war, such as direct conflict with the Alliance.
However, it remains unclear whether the Kremlin has made a decision about such a war and what time it can start. "Russia realizes long -term plans that, according to ISW, may be part of preparation for the upcoming war between NATO and Russia, such as the restructuring of Russia's military districts on its western border and the development of military bases on the border with Finland. ISW does not observe the signs that Russia is active.
In their view, open and hidden attacks, as well as statements about counterfeit flags, the Russian Federation is needed to achieve goals not only in the international field but also within the country. Moscow wants to sow fear among Europeans and "split NATO's determination", in particular, creating the impression of spreading the threat of violence throughout Europe.
"Russia seeks to use fear in Europe to get concessions in its war against Ukraine and the possible future war between NATO and Russia. attacks, " - explained in ISW. However, all these efforts are only part of the wider campaign of the Russian Federation, designed to force its opponents to make favorable Kremlin political decisions. In addition, the Russians want to influence the views of their own population by accusing them of the attack or their threat.
In this way, Moscow creates conditions that in the future will allow her to justify her aggression against NATO and mobilize public support. We will remind, the analysts of DeepState reported the promotion of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya regions. In particular, the invaders seized the village of Maliyivka. US President Donald Trump said he almost made his decision on Tomahawk for Ukraine.