Frost scenario. How and when the war with Russia can be stopped

The analyst Anatoly Amelin answers many questions - what can be the script of "frost" of war? He is convinced that the suspension of fire is inevitable, but it should be preceded by Ukrainian successes at the front in the coming months. Everyone is wondering what the formula of "peace" will be, or rather "frosts". Today there were several unplanned meetings with difficult foreigners (Britain, EU), which were actively interested in scripts and possible format.

I will not translate all the conversation, but I will share the main theses. 1. "Freezing" is the only possible scenario for the near future. It favorably wrote about it (favorably favorably China, Russia, EU and the USA). 2. The least in "freezing" are interested in breaking. 3. Frost conditions are the most important question today. There are different "formulas", but . . . 4. As the military says, "Negotiations are on the battlefield.

" And Russia has raised the rate for over 7 months without stopping the offensive and opening new fronts - its purpose to show that the conditions of "frost" from Russia may not like someone, but it is definitely "better" than to lose territory, people, industry, sit in darkness. 5. We will not accept this "formula". It is obvious. 6. Moreover, OP is not ready to discuss any formula except Ukrainian (in fact, today is the best solution) 7.

We return to the thesis about "negotiations on the battlefield". Ahead is a responsible stage: mobilization and receipt of "delicious" gifts from our partners. Timely receipt of "gifts" and competent mobilization will allow to change the status of CVO and reach an adequate "negotiation position". 8. No, we will have no direct negotiations with Russia, they will be separated, however, we will definitely participate in the final formulations. 9.

But the decision is final, however, it will not be behind us, but for the US and China. 10. And if we do not agree - "turn off gas". Joke. Limit financial and technical support, rake up. 11. Estimated starting of "frost" - autumn 2024 - spring 2025 (tied to the US presidential election. In the first case - Baiden's plan, in the second - Trump plan) 12. "Frost" is needed by everyone, including Ukraine to " Transfer the Spirit "and prepare for an even greater battle. 13.

According to the scenarios of the conflict in Ukraine by the United States, I wrote earlier. 14. The next "Round" of the Great War begins 2 years after the frost from 2027, when China finishes a complete re -equipment of its army. It is believed that it takes 2-3 years to restore military potential. 15. Accordingly, even if "frost" happens, Ukraine will have all (!) 1.

5-2 years for the most fastest in the history of the world of increasing weapons production, new developments, increasing the capacity of the army, the creation of insurmountable fortifications, mobilization of economy and the population. 15. But there is an aspect. As mentioned above, not everyone is profitable and interesting "freezing". In particular, I call into question the idea that it is beneficial to the UK.

Russia is their ancient competitor, and the weakening of Russia's influence on the continent is one of the strategic goals. The UK does not bear significant costs and risks in conflict. For them, even the "loss" of Ukraine is not the worst scenario. There are still a whole Europe between the Britons and the Horde. But a priority task is to exhaust Russia as much as possible. And for this purpose the "frost" scenario is not suitable. 16.

Where and how will the next turn of the horde aggression after "defrosting" begin? There are several scenarios: what format "freezing" can be? 17. There is a Russian scenario where they will insist on the demilitarization of the zone more than 200 km, the removal of claims from Ukraine to Crimea and Donbas, the demilitarization of the Ukrainian army and society. There is a Chinese scenario where, as early as 2023, China spoke publicly for all well and against everything bad (without specifics).

There is a Ukrainian formula of peace. 18. The Russian formula will not accept Ukraine or the West. It is obvious. 19. The Ukrainian formula is a formal loss of Russia, which neither Russia nor the United States wants to allow. 20. "Frozen" in a state "as is" today does not suit Ukraine or the US. But Russia is already striving to raise rates - without stopping the offensive, opening new fronts and destroying Ukrainian energy, industry. 21.

The freezing script will only be clear after a new round of "negotiations" on the battlefield - after receiving the promised weapons, including aviation and long -range missiles. And also after the planned (albeit coral) mobilization, preparation of new units and putting them at the disposal of the General Staff. 22. It is after the implementation of paragraph 21 (and from how it will be implemented) and the "freezing formula" will be formed. 23. I will assume that she ("frost") is possible.