How many events will receive for the war in Ukraine: $ 10 billion for the subsoil of the state
I have already given an analytics: from active reserves that can be extracted in the next 50 years during the complex development of natural bowels, we have about $ 1 trillion. The question of how to use them. Can be sold as raw materials. We get at the current prices annually $ 20 billion. And if in processing with a multiplier effect 1:10, the annual effect will be $ 200 billion. The difference is significant. And then 1 trillion dollars.
Natural reserves with light movement of the hand turn into $ 10 trillion, of which 9 trillion is an additional cost in the form of complex products. And these are jobs, taxes, infrastructure, demand for innovation (development of science) and skilled labor (development of education). And a resource for environmental protection. There is something to fight for. In simple words, it is at stake - where these $ 9 trillion will settle. In the next 50 years, in Ukraine or in other countries.
Why is the multiplier effect 1 to ten? This is an average figure. In petrochemistry and gas processing, it is smaller, and the processing of titanium is larger. It is still important where the front line will pass at the date of the war. On average, the "estimate" of war for the West amounted to approximately $ 300 billion. But so far, these costs are covered by blocked Russian assets.
By the way, as the total amount of the event went out for this figure, immediately talking about their reduction began. Now the amount of annual assistance to Ukraine want to be tied to the amount of profit from the use of Russian assets in the horizon 5-10 years, no more. If we subtract the factor of blocked Russian assets, our allies have not spent any cent yet - all costs are covered by the amount of Russian assets.
On the other hand, $ 300 billion The assets of Western companies are blocked in the Russian Federation. But there is another blocking structure. In the West, Russian state assets and assistance from the West are blocked by interstate channels. And in Russia the assets of private Western investors, mostly European, are blocked. But back to the "estimate" of war. Suppose that war costs will be $ 400 billion. But profits in the form of natural resources - $ 9 trillion. or more than 20 times more.
A considerable H. But there is a number of uncertainty factors. How to complete the war, how to access resources, how to control them for 50 years, whether they will need an event at all, etc. That is why the factor of these resources is something like the "Golden Rhine" for the West from the Nibelung Saga. To obtain it, you need to kill a dragon, and not the fact that it will bring happiness, not a curse.
Siegfried, he was not lucky… Therefore, the event strategy in terms of war costs is more rational: we fill the tank of Ukraine to Ukraine. And the cut is the sum of blocked Russian assets. The US dissatisfaction with the distribution of the financial burden of war can also be explained through the prism of Russian assets: there are almost no Russian assets, everything is concentrated in the EU and invested in the euro, mainly in the Eurobonds of European countries.
That is, this money went to financing the EU budget deficit. This is one of the reasons why Trump wants to shift the main burden of Ukraine's financing to the EU. And returning to the article in Bild. The overall list of our most valuable resources is, in general, correct. These are the mineral resources I often write about. The list includes uranium, titanium, lithium and graphite. As you can see, there is no iron and manganese ores.
Our oligarchs have already started integrating this resource into the European economy. And the "Black Rock" bought part of the shares of the Poltava GOK. And our oil and gas are not interested in Europe at all: there are little stocks, expensively extracted and contrary to the "green course". By 2050, the EU wants to consume 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. That is, the usual LNG and supply from Africa will be enough.