Putin before the choice: the Russian Federation will be able to wage a full -scale war for at least a year - CNN
In December 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law in which 4,98 trillion rubles will be allocated for "national defense" in 2023 - $ 52 billion at the current exchange rate, which is slightly higher than last year. But now this forecast is doubled to 9. 7 trillion rubles ($ 101 billion). This is almost three times more than Russia spent on the defense of 2021, until a full -scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
These figures are likely to reduce the total amount spent by Russia for military needs. According to the Stockholm International Institute for Peace Problems, which monitors military expenditures around the world, the national defense article in the official budget of Russia is only about three quarters of total military expenditures.
Richard Connolly, a specialist in the Russian economy from the Royal Joint Institute for Defense and Security Research, also suggests that the military spending will significantly exceed $ 100 billion this year. He said that before the war, Russia usually spent about 3-4% of its annual gross domestic product, but now this figure can be from 8% to 10%.
"If you take into account the prices of goods and services in Russia, the equivalent amount in the dollar terms in 2023 looks even higher, probably closer to $ 300 billion," - estimates Janis Kluga, Senior Researcher at the German Institute for International Relations and Security. The Kremlin's generosity about its armed forces has already led to huge economic costs.
The Russian budget deficit - the gap between expenditures and revenues - has increased dramatically since the beginning of the war, since revenues from oil and gas exports have fallen through Western sanctions and large discounts for the remaining buyers. Reducing energy prices this year and a decrease in production aimed at their support, increased pressure. According to the publication, public debt, which is currently 14. 9% of GDP, will increase.
"Russia cannot take loans from abroad, it is closed from the western capital markets," said Liam Pich, a senior economist from developing markets in Capital Economics. The ruble can continue to fall, Klyughe from the German Institute of International Relations and Security. "The least they (the Government of the Russian Federation - Ed.
) Want the Russians to lose confidence in the Russian currency and then at some point, perhaps they began to exchange all rubles for foreign currency, because then there will be a vicious circle. And it can really create a kind of currency crisis in Russia, "he said. Economists recognize that the Russian economy is still working better than expected. However, the burden on the economy is increasing.
"The Soviet heritage has taught people to live literally in poverty, not to count on anything," she said. "And they are ready to stay in this survival mode for a long time," Alexander Suslin, an independent economist, who left Russia shortly after the invasion. Oleksandra Prokopenko, a researcher of the Russian Eurasian Center Carnegie in Berlin, said that Russia may be able to finance the war for a year or so, but if it continues, the government will have to make a "difficult choice".
"Compromise will be that they will have to raise taxes or reduce infrastructure expenditures, for example, for road construction and bridges, because military expenditures will demand more and more (money from the budget - ed. )," She said. We will remind, on August 28 it was reported that the Russians rose money on the construction of trenches and "teeth of the dragon" on the border with Ukraine.