"Now is not time": negotiations with the Russian Federation in favor of Ukraine only after the liberation of the South - Fukuyama
Frances Fukuyama's political scientist and philosopher of Stanford University has visited the Tbilisi Center for Economic Policy Research, where, in particular, he spoke about when it is time to negotiate with Putin and how "Georgia's neutrality helps Russia. " About it reports "Radio Liberty". At the current stage, after some pause, everyone is waiting for a Ukrainian counter -offensive that can put an end to this war.
"If Ukrainians release two regions in the south, Kherson and Zaporizhia, then I think real negotiations will be possible. Then there will be a ceasefire that will last for some time," he said. If the negotiations were held now, they would not be in favor of Ukraine, as they would have to give the Russians a large part of the Ukrainian territory.
Fukuyama noted that Crimea is a vulnerable place of Russia, since after the liberation of the Kherson region, Ukraine will be able to cut the peninsula from other Russia -occupied territories. Crimea with the mainland is connected by one railway and the bridge above the Kerch Strait. The Armed Forces will be able to cut these two arteries, they will not even have to introduce troops, ie. All Russian forces will essentially be hostage, the expert explained.
After that, and if the Russians have to give Crimea, it is difficult to imagine that the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin will be able to survive, because they have decently invested in occupation. "But the fact is that Ukraine does not even have to conquer Crimea. They can simply cut it away. Even they will be able to exert a significant pressure on the Russians, which will become a great strategic advantage for them," Fukuyama explained.
According to Fukuyas, each side has something to lose. "But I do not think that one of the parties will formally agree to go to such territorial concessions as Crimea or Donbass," he said, adding that there may be some informal agreement. More than a year ago, Fukuyama predicted the complete defeat of the Russian troops, now he says that, as before, he is confident in the victory of Ukraine, ie. Since then, Kyiv has been returned to Kharkiv region and Kherson.
Although it took more time than he calculated. The Russians demonstrated extraordinary weakness, Fukuyama explained. "Therefore, in general, I am confident in Ukraine's ability to protect myself," the philosopher said. "If Russia loses in Ukraine, with the weakened power of Putin, every country around Russia will have more freedom of action," he explained, and added that what will be the further path of Georgia development, depends largely on the results of the war in Ukraine.
Fukuyama noted that it would be nice if the Georgia government clearly expressed its position in support of Ukraine. "I think neutrality [which Tbilisi adheres to] in favor of Russia. There is a lot of reports that Georgia helps Russia to circumvent sanctions imposed by the US and Europe," he said. The Georgian government, in turn, denies it. Tbilisi leads a double game, retains neutrality and helps one side.
"I think it is a consequence of the pro -Russian roll that has taken the leadership of Georgia," Fukuyama said. He also added that most inhabitants of Georgia associate their future with Europe, not the Russian Federation. We will remind that last year Francis Fukuyama called Blef Putin that the Kremlin "did not start" about Ukraine. It was also reported that the officer of the 3rd assault brigade "Azov" spoke about the defense of Bakhmut.