Without gasoline. What attacks the Russian refineries have been and how will it affect the aggressor country
Since there are not many refineries in the Central Region of the Russian Federation to meet the needs of the capital region, the continuation of drones on refinery in Russia can significantly affect the regularity of supply of petroleum products not only for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, but also on the supply of petroleum products to Moscow and the region. The director of special projects of NTC "Psyche" Gennady Ryabtsev told about this focus.
In his comments for the article "Leave the Russian Federation without fuel. This refinery was attacked by Ukraine, and why it is still necessary (map)" expert noted that the attacks on Russian refineries are still more alarmed Russia, and everything can change if drones attacks continue. "Of all the news confirmed, the clumps that have led to a significant reduction of processing, only at the Volgograd and Nizhny Novgorodsky refinery.
If those reports that were previously confirmed, can be said that the volume of oil refining in the Russian Federation in the Russian Federation can be said no more than 2024 than by 2%. That is, plus minus 2% is an insignificant change in volume. Moreover, it is not a fact that other plants will not change, because they can distribute volumes, " - says Gennady Ryabtsev.
However, he continues, attacks on refineries will still complicate logistics for the Russian Federation, and the continuation of "incidents" can significantly affect the regularity of supply of petroleum products not only for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, but also for Moscow and the region, because the Moscow refinery has not satisfied the needs of the Russian capital for a long time. .
Other refineries - Nizhnynorodsky and Volgograd - will now be less supplying petroleum products, and if the attacks continue, there may be serious problems. Since March 1, gasoline exports have been banned in Russia, but according to Gennady Ryabtsev, this is not related to the attacks on the refinery, because in Russia and such attacks had serious problems with providing the Russians with the necessary amount of fuel.
"In the Russian Federation, traditionally at the beginning of the growth season, such restrictions are imposed. Since the spring of demand begins in order to be able to manually regulate the market, including price regulation, in the Russian Federation a ban on gasoline and diesel exports is introduced in the Russian Federation.
There are no official regulation of prices, but at meetings in The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, where representatives of the networks of gas and refining companies are invited, always say how it is possible to raise prices. There is manual regulation, which is a consequence of the exported industry of oil refining in Russia does not pay attention to the needs of the domestic market.
that Russia is a benzyzocolon state, but it is not capable of providing consumers with sufficient fuel of proper quality without the introduction of such means of manual regulation. In the presence of shelling, they are simply unable to do so. And attacks on refineries only complicate problems in Russia in the fuel market ", - the expert notes.
In his opinion, after the trains on the capacity of oil refining enterprises, the Russians may take about 3-6 months or longer to restore damaged installations and equipment. "In the case of Nizhny Novgorod (UAV attack on March 12, focus), the hit occurred on the raw oil distillation block, the installation of Avt 6 was damaged. In order to restore the work, in this case it takes not 2-3 months, but much more time .
I saw a satellite shot, there the column of this car fell, and it may not be possible to restore it during the year. 6 million tons a year - oil processing volumes of one such installation. About 280 million tons are processed in Russia in Russia, and 6 million tons are processed can already be performed.
In January at the NPP in Nizhny Novgorod, the installation of catalytic cracking has been damaged, which means changing the depth of oil processing, that is, the structure of commodity production will change, for example, less octane gasoline and more fuel oil will be produced less. But in general, such a problem is solved. Installations Avt 6 is also solved, but the equipment is needed.
The AVT column can be made in the Russian Federation, but there are internal devices imported and China does not produce them. And so the Russians will have to import it through third countries. Therefore, there will be no quick replacement. And if the attacks continue, it can significantly affect the logistics of supplies of petroleum products for the Armed Forces along the entire front, " - says the expert. And adds: damage to NPPs in Russia is also a multi -million downside for enterprises.
Currently, such losses can be estimated It is approaching $ 100 million. The most painful are those shocks that will damage the installation of primary processing of oil raw materials. This is the worst for refineries, it is the most vulnerable place in the refinery. Petroleum products are damage to the equipment, including primary oil processing installations. This is the worst for refinery, it is the most vulnerable place in the refinery.
If it will destroy the drone, it will be the greatest effect. It is easier to destroy a gasoline or oil tank, it can be seen from afar, it is likely to be highly likely, but such tanks are quickly restored. We have unfortunate experience in Ukraine when 30 oil depots were destroyed by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, but still in the country was provided fuel for both critical infrastructure and the Armed Forces.