Whether the Russian Federation's initiative depends on the offensive in the Donbass and the Breakthrough of the Armed Forces near Kursk - ISW

According to analysts, the fact that for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the priority the offensive operation on Pokrovsk does not mean that for Ukraine this direction should also be a priority, not other areas of the front. Kremlin head Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command probably considers the preservation of the initiative at the theater of hostilities as a strategic condition for winning the war for exhaustion against Ukraine.

The emergence of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region and the Russian offensive in the East will affect whether the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will keep the initiative in the short term. About it writes "Institute of War Study" in publication of August 18. Russian troops have taken the initiative in November 2023 and since then have been conducting consistent offensive operations throughout Eastern and Northeast Ukraine.

The Russian Armed Forces campaign is intended to stretch the Ukrainian forces and not to allow Ukraine to accumulate resources to intercept this initiative. In recent months, Russian troops have not conducted new large -scale offensive operations to maintain a constant pace of offensive in Ukraine, especially in Donetsk region. Putin and the Russian military command allow the fact that the months of fighting will continue to lead to minor tactical success.

The President of the Russian Federation has expressed the theory of victory in Ukraine, which assumes that Russian troops should continue these gradual creeping advancements, without giving Ukraine the opportunity to carry out successful promptly significant counter -offensive operations.

Putin probably believes that until the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are able to keep the initiative and not allow Ukraine to conduct promptly significant counter -offensive operations, Russia will be able to cause decisive loss of Ukraine in the long run. At the same time, the Russian Federation is waiting for Western security assistance and the mobilization of the economy and the population of Ukraine will stop.

"The Ukrainian invasion in the Kursk region temporarily allowed Ukrainian troops to seize the initiative on one of the areas of the front line and start fighting for the initiative throughout the theater of hostilities.

And probably hope that the steady pace of the offensive in Donetsk region will attract enough Ukrainian resources for defense operations in the area, to prevent Ukraine from challenging the initiative on the battlefield in other places, using the consequences of invasion in the Kursk region.