The war in Ukraine will not end quickly - the IMF forecast

The IMF noted that they monitor the situation with combat actions in Ukraine to adequately evaluate the duration of the war. The International Monetary Fund expects that the active phase of war in Ukraine will probably be delayed by the end of 2024. Regarding the negative forecast, the fighting will last two years. This is stated in the materials of the IMF on the second viewing of the credit program with Ukraine, as well as in an interview with the head of the IMF mission in Ukraine Gevin Gray NV.

In the basic scenario of the forecast for Ukraine the IMF laid the duration of the war until the end of 2024. According to the negative IMF scenario, the war will last until the end of 2025. "The basic macroeconomic framework does not imply a significant deterioration in the intensity or scale of war, no long power outages," the IMF said. Experts say that they regularly communicate with military experts to evaluate the duration of the war in Ukraine.

Although there is no consensus among them, the majority is leaning to the scenario with a longer period of war. Experts predict that under the basic GDP scenario of Ukraine will increase by 3-4% in 2024, with a negative-will decrease by 5%. The IMF expects Ukraine's GDP to increase by 4. 5%, although only 1-3%was predicted. The IMF still has an optimistic scenario, but without information on the completion of hostilities.

In order for it to take place, a combination of several factors is required: in this case, GDP in 2025 can increase by 10%. Recall that during a working visit to the United States, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky met with the Director-Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Krystalina Georgieva. The leaders discussed the revision of the long -term financing program for Ukraine and further cooperation for the sake of stability and strengthening of our country.