Taiwan's choice, Japan's weapons, Africa crossroads. What tectonic plates have the war in Ukraine shifted
At first glance, quite significant analogies are really visible - a powerful country seeks to absorb its much smaller neighbor, appealing to "historical justice. " However, if you understand the situation more deeply, it will be much more than in common. No one recognizes Taiwan as a separate state. Even the US consider it an integral part of China. They are something like a guarantee of its broad autonomy. But most importantly, most Taiwans consider themselves part of the Chinese people.
If we draw an analogy with Russia, it would be as if the Bolsheviks would be able to reflect the Republic of Admiral Kolchak. Another result of the analysis of the situation with Taiwan is the design of the parties' response to the Russian-Ukrainian war only to Beijing. Indeed, the communist authorities of the Middle Kingdom took into account the mistakes of Moscow. And this seems to reduce the risks of military invasion.
However, few people take into account the possible reaction of the Taiwan residents. Are they ready to pay the same price as Ukrainians for their freedom? From this point of view, a new sense is gained terrorist attacks by Russians on Ukrainian infrastructure. The frames of freezing Ukrainians would provide a real bear service with the Chinese dragon in the case of lifting inhabitants on their side.
And sociological surveys on the island show that it is the Popular approach that is the most popular among Taiwans-most want to simply preserve the status quo in a whole enough well-being society. It was Putin that the special operation made his "special operation", and this seems that Beijing seems to support the Homindan Party.
The BBC Viewer in Taiwan Francis Mao notes that a two-party system (the nationalist Party of the Homindan and the Democratic Progressive Party) is now formed on the island. Interestingly, although the Republic of China in Taiwan was founded by Khomindan's representatives in 1949, but in recent years they have been in cooperation with mainland China, while progressive Democrats (in power on the island since 2016) are hold .
The one who wins the Presidential Elections in 2024 will depend on the further "Chinese" policy of the island. In November 2022, Kuomintang won the municipal election, in particular in the Taipei capital. Local journalist Hilton IP called such election results by the sign that voters are concerned about not only the issue of interaction with mainland China. Now the key to the future of the island is the presidential election.
The incumbent President Tsay Inni made the base of the campaign of her party precisely nationalist rhetoric, essentially seeking to turn the 2024 elections into a referendum on the independence side). However, what do Taihani do if they make sure that the only way to avoid war is a gradual merger with the PRC? As a possible option, it is considered to be the entry of individual cities, which theoretically Kuomintana can promote, even losing the presidential election.
Is it not for the US to support Taiwan in all possible ways (including armed) that Ukraine is the only good asset of Washington after the so -called "end of history"? After all, the Russian-Ukrainian war on the one hand really became a reservation for Beijing hawks, but on the other hand it is a horror story for Taiwan's inhabitant part of society, which quite realistically can not notice the island's creeping annexation in friendly arms of China as an alternative can resist the cost of significant casualties and destruction.
Equally significant, tectonic changes occur north of the rebellious island. Japan in all pairs rushes to the restoration of his army. Now her troops have a formal status of self -defense forces, that is, practically police. What did not prevent them from equipping them with modern weapons, such as the F-35 V aircraft V aircraft, and also did not have on the path of high places in the ratings of the world's armies and the size of military budgets (or the budget of self-defense forces).
A better time and a drive than now just don't find. According to the Temple University of International Relations Expert James Brown, Japanese public opinion still stands for the country's pacifist status. That is, the Japanese believe that their army should have sufficient self -defense, but not for attack in other countries. It was public opinion that did not allow the militarization of Japan to be the late Expremier of Sinzo Abe.
But now Tokyo is already preparing public opinion, to change the status of defense forces, spreading rumors that Japan had to be on the site of Ukraine. In this way, the Government of the Rising Sun plans to repeat the experience of Swedish colleagues, who, against the background of shock of society, from the first decade of the Great War in Europe, abandoned the two -hundred -year traditions of neutrality. In Japan, the experience of living without a full army is much shorter.
And recent surveys show that there are shifts in this direction. After all, more than 60% of the population support the sovereign Armed Forces. Japan's denacification will cause tectonic changes in the region's security system, as the United States will cease to be the only guarantor of the safety of this corner of the world. And the question of how to react to both Korea, which before the war, became the victim of aggression of Japan, remains open.
However, in contrast to the problems of Korea in the medium term, the growth of military power of Japan is beneficial to the United States, as it will exacerbate the "Quad" (Quad), which also includes India - one of the few countries in the world, which is friends with Moscow, but frankly at war with Beijing. . India refused to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation. For her, Russia's aggression has given rise to many economic opportunities.
In the world crisis, India receives oil from the Russian Federation with a significant discount. It can either be resold by earning money from the air, or saturate with cheap petroleum products, which will give it such a competitive advantage now. In a similar situation, there were also rich in oil monarchy of the Middle East. They receive surpluses on raw materials, the cost of which is many times lower than modern market value.
They also try to bargain from the US and a global measure for a place in the geopolitical structure of the planet, trying to get as much preferences as possible for political loyalty. The times when Washington could simply call the Riyadh to establish the necessary conjuncture in the oil market, the OPEC+Summit, which took place in October 2022, demonstrated it. Another question is that Arabs and Indians have different goals.
If Saudi Arabia seeks to establish himself as a regional leader, then nuclear India seeks much more - a place in the UN Security Council, that is, entrance to the elite of the whole world. Do not unite such ambitious goals of New Delhi against themselves hard-working enemies-Beijing and Washington.
Due to the fact that the rivalry of the US and China is too sharp, Washington will most likely be more likely to keep a balance in relations with India at the expense of Arabic countries - its competitors for leadership in the region. Moreover, the Indians have a conflict with Muslim Pakistan, which does not contribute to friendly relations with Muslim Arab.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has exacerbated all these contradictions and the front Asia is already on the verge of a great war between Iran and Saudi Arabia/Israel. And further to the east, the situation is not more stable and peaceful. Not the greatest among the distant regions of direct influence from the war has already been affected by Africa.
The paradox of life is a region that is the least significant in geopolitics and could not influence the decision on war or peace in any way, suffered direct material losses from Russia's aggression against Ukraine. It is worth noting that in his narratives he often called Africa a friendly region and positioned himself as a defender of the former oppressed colonies from their metropolises, who did not want to continue to exploit already independent states.
In practice, Moscow contributed to the increase in food prices (which Russia itself is actively exporting) and for some time practically taken hostage to Africa, delaying the signing of the grain agreement. In fact, Africa has long been segmented, and if it was disadvantaged to the event as former colonists, its vector was directed not to the Russian Federation, but to the PRC and personal initiative Si Jinping - "one belt - one way" (Bri).
The scale of cooperation clearly reflects the estimates of joint projects. China invests in African projects about $ 40 billion, but Russia is almost more than $ 12. 5 billion. These are quite authoritarian states, which have mainly imposed international sanctions (such as the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burkin-Faso in Libya on the side of Field Marshal Halifa Haftar), so their choice is not great.
Some of them are almost partially occupied by Russian military groups - the same PEC "Wagner". On the US side, there are traditionally countries with a democratic social system. The former US Ambassador to Tanzania R. Steit has counted 16 countries of the region with a population of about a billion people, where the institutions of democratic elections and the free market operate. These include Ghana, South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, Nigeria and others.
In his view, lifestyle in these states indicates that democracy in Africa works. However, the question remains how stable democratic institutions in these countries are. After all, there was only a military coup in Mali and there are already military instructors with Wagner PEC. And the democratic government of South Africa does not prevent the establishment of close economic relations with the PRC and even plan joint military exercises, which will be present by Russian troops.
On the other hand, 28 African countries voted for the resolution of the UN General Assembly on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. Other states of Africa have to clearly define the party. In order to facilitate the choice of the United States, the first in eight years Summit of the US-Africa, where African states were asked to join US financial, humanitarian and infrastructure projects that should be an alternative to Chinese Bri for African states.
The United States is ready to allocate about $ 55 billion for its projects. The US Agency for International Development Schnedman International Development, together with Professor and Executive Director of the Global Management School, Thunderbird at the University of Arizona, notes that US initiatives in the region are aimed at solving current problems of Africa. social sphere, health care and control of climatic changes.
However, this is relevant in terms of representatives of open societies of the West. However, who is more comfortable to work with local elites? In peacetime, the answer was unambiguous - China. The war posed additional questions. After all, even Beijing is ready to go to a direct confrontation with the United States, the less ready -made African leaders. It is after this vector that the watershed between African states will be held in the coming decades.
Also a significant shift was Ukraine's entry into African policy. It is expected that this is due to "grain corridors". Yes, Ukraine will establish cooperation with the states that will be the hubs of supply of grain and other food products to the continent. Currently, the state has declared to become Senegal.