Blackmail on Independence Day. What is known about the threat of rocket strokes of the Russian Federation on August 24 and what can oppose this risks to Ukraine
The group found that at the Belarusian airfield, which is controlled by the Russian army, there are now 10 to 14 units of anti-aircraft missile complexes C-400 Triumph, three radar stations Caste-2e2 and 48 I6 teenage, two anti-aircraft complexes. The aerodrome also houses ammunition with at least 15-60 missiles for S-300/400 SPR. In addition, activists found that Russian military aircraft IL-76 were bringing missiles for the C-400 to Gomel Airport, from where they were taken to gills.
“The analysis of the situation at the airfield proves that the probability of rocket firing of the territory of Ukraine is not just stored, but it seems that there is a preparation for a massive rocket strike in the territory of Ukraine in the next weeks. This is evidenced by the fact that from the moment of the last massive shelling - on July 28 - no rocket has been released from the territory of Belarus in Ukraine, ”the group says.
Similar risks were reported on August 16 in the General Staff of the Armed Forces, noting "the threat of a task by the army of the Russian Federation of missile and aviation strikes from the Belarusian territory.
" In addition, the Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny in yesterday's conversation with his Canadian colleague, General Wayne Donald Air, emphasized that Ukraine's concern "causes the location of rocket systems along the state border by the Republic of Belarus, in particular at the Aerodroma of Zayabrovka. " Military expert Oleg Zhdanov suggested that such a blow to the Russian Federation could be caused in the 1920s.
“The invaders understand that on August 24 it will be Ukraine's Independence Day. On August 23, we are still celebrating the National Flag Day of Ukraine, - Zhdanov reminded in a comment from Channel 24. - I think they just accumulate the number of missiles in order to apply as much as possible - if possible - a massive rocket strike in our territory. " Zhdanov suggested that it could be a few rocket strokes, "which they would stretch in time. " “They will not leave it so much.
And this is a lull, I think, before the storm, ”the expert said. The Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat also suggested that the enemy could "congratulate" Ukraine on Independence Day with rockets. According to him, the Ukrainian military is constantly watching the movement of troops and ammunition in the territory of Belarus, including Iskander missiles. Ignati recalled that the threat from Belarus is always and called to be especially vigilant on holidays.
“We soon have Independence Day, the enemy uses such dates for greetings, so we must be ready for it, not neglect any signals. The threat has not disappeared, ”he stressed, reminding that the Russian Federation from the first days of the invasion of strikes from Belarus from different weapons-aircraft, Iskander and point-u complexes, etc.
Finally, the General of the Army of Ukraine, the exclusive of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Mykola Lightmuz also warned Ukrainians about the risks of Russian "revenge" for explosions in the occupied Crimea. “Will they (Russians) now have a retribution operation? They will be carried out, - said in an interview with the House TV channel on August 16. - They are now preparing an operation for August 24, this information is already known from operational sources.
Therefore, they charge all forces from the territory of Crimea in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya region, to the east of Ukraine and to the territory of Belarus. ” He noted "large supply of missile systems" to the Belarusian bases of the Russian Federation and declared the possibility of "new rocket strikes and possibly offensive operations of the large -scale front: both in the East, and increased grouping in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhya directions.
" Small I am convinced that in this way the Kremlin tries to encourage Ukraine to negotiate under the terms of the Russian Federation. In his opinion, the Russian counterattack can be "complex": as a response to the gill [where a few days ago there were an explosion], for the Crimea, and August 24. "It is an attempt to intimidate Ukraine again with a massive blow, and most importantly, to intimidate the civilian population, so that we demand peace and negotiations," the general said.
Russia has continued to strike rocket strikes in Ukraine for almost half a year. During this time, the Ukrainian air forces were accustomed to some types of Russian missiles, and therefore began to knock down those flying at a lower speed (about 900 km/h) more effectively and can be technically beaten by Ukrainian PVO. First of all, it is a winged caliber missile, X-101 and X-555, explained in a recent interview with NV a spokesman for the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces Yuri Ignat.
According to him, the Ukrainian military began to knock down these missiles more effectively, because in the first half of the war, "our fighters, anti-aircraft, fighters and airborne air, and other defense units have learned to identify these goals and neutralize them more or less. " “There is definitely better interaction between different structures.
If the rocket flies 900 km per hour to destroy it, it is necessary that everyone in their place works extremely and accurately, and at the final stage, someone else one still took and hit this rocket, - Ignat recalled. - Actually, this is already achieved through experience and we have such results when we knock down four out of six missiles, four of four or seven of eight.
This is an extremely cool result, taking into account the weapons that we have since the 70's and 80's, and Russian missiles in 2015. We understand that we are impossible to fall less on the head. " However, it is extremely difficult to knock down a number of types of Russian rockets because of their speed and features of flight tractor. Among them are missiles X-22, X-31, Onyx, dagger or Iskander, against which Ukraine cannot effectively use air defense.
“Because a dagger is generally a hypersonic rocket and extremely modern. It is, in fact, an Iskander, which is not flying from the ground, but from the air medium, ”Yuri Ignat recalled. And if the launch of sparks that depart, for example, from the territory of Belarus, can be detected with the help of various sources of information, then rockets of the type of the Russian Federation launch mainly from the MiG-31 aircraft.
“This fighter takes off from the depths of Russia, raises extremely high and releases this rocket. What happened is not always visible because it is a complex radar target. This rocket flies in the upper atmosphere at an extremely high speed to the point where it should fall to the target. When measured on the target, there is even higher speed, about 12 thousand km per hour, and the rocket drops at this incredible speed down.
The combat part is 500 kg - you can imagine what explosion this dangerous weapon can create. But as it is very difficult to detect it radar, and it is virtually impossible to destroy it, ”Ignati explained. Fortunately, the number of daggers in Russia is small, the enemy applies them rarely - and obviously will only be used for the Russian Federation.
In addition, in the first six months of the war, Russia has already used many modern missiles, so in some cases analysts note its transition to older missiles of less efficiency. For example, the Russian army is increasingly using the C-300 anti-aircraft missile complexes for shelling of Ukrainian cities due to a shortage of tactical and operative-tactical missiles, the Center for Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on August 4.
To do this, the rockets have to be "reinforced", because they are usually intended for impact on air purposes. “The C-300 Paradoxical thing is transformed. These missiles have accuracy either catastrophically, or high enough. It all depends on the presence of the element of the guidance - the goal of the speaker, which can be the UAV or the gunner. There is no guidance-accuracy as in X-22, there is a guide-like a winged recta of caliber,-noted in the Stratcomm of the Armed Forces.
- Often there is no guidance, just let in the settlement. And this is the main trouble, because the rocket has a huge number of impressive elements. " On the other hand, it demonstrates "how much the" second "army in the world" is exhausted, the Ukrainian military added. Earlier, the British newspaper Times has accessed the report of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, which analyzes the inefficiency and obsolescence of Russian weapons.
The authors of the report, in particular, concluded that the caliber missiles impressed the targets in Ukraine with only 33%accuracy. On August 17, the representative of the Main Department of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense Andriy Yusov really announced that in the near future, "acute events" should be expected on the whole front. He noted that this development of war is not directly related to the celebration of Independence Day. “It is not just about being attached to some dates.
There is a lot of talking about Independence Day, ”Yusov said. Although this factor should be taken into account, however, Ukrainian intelligence has previously stated that "August and September will be extremely important months" for the further development of events at the front, Andrey Yusov emphasized.
The former head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Mykola Malomuzh notes that in the near future can be expected to attempt the army of the Russian Federation to revitalize land operations, but does not see the prospects for success of such attempts for the Russians. According to him, the Russian Federation has intensified the main forces that move equipment in the southern regions of Ukraine.
"Several hundred units of military equipment have been moved to the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions in order not only to keep positions, but perhaps to carry out counterudaries," - reminded Lightmark. However, he is convinced that today there is no great offensive potential of the Russian Federation. “We have clear information that in the eastern direction it was a huge loss [for Russia].
And so the Russian Federation was forced to pause for mobilizing resources, and, of course, first of all servicemen, ”-said ex-chairman SVR, additionally pointing to the lack of efficiency of even these efforts of Moscow. Therefore, according to the Ukrainian general, "there will be no chance for the Russian Federation in the south, even in the east," although in the Donbass "there may be a few kilometers, maybe a few settlements.