From Kharkiv to Liman: Does Russia really prepare a large -scale offensive after May 9
He noted that since 2022, Russian troops have not achieved significant strategic or operational successes, which asked their ability to be in large -scale offensive actions. Venislavsky emphasized that the Kremlin's statements about the possible offensive could be directed to pressure on European partners in Ukraine. He called such statements as "wants" and attempts to influence the international community.
At the same time, analysts of the Institute of War Study (ISW) reported the concentration of Russian forces northeast of estuaries, which may testify to the preparation for the capture of the settlements of Borov and estuary in Luhansk region. According to ISW, in some sections of the front the ratio of forces is 10 to 1 in favor of Russian troops, which use well-trained contractors. Earlier, the officer of the 3rd Separate assault brigade, Vladimir Fokin, reported the possible offensive Action.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky also stated the readiness of the Russian Federation to intensify hostilities, in particular in Sumy and Kharkiv regions. The focus understood whether the Russian Federation really was preparing an offensive in Ukraine in the near future. The military expert, the SBU Explorer Ivan Stupak, emphasizes that recently reported reports of the possible offensive of Russian troops, but all the statements are received mainly from Ukrainian sources.
"There are currently no confirmations from Western intelligence, including US or British. Washington Post and other international publications have often published data with reference to American intelligence, but this time there are no such messages. There is now no, "says Focus Stupak. The expert reminds that in general, Russia has continued its offensive actions for more than 17 months - since October 2023.
At the same time, it is difficult to talk about a "unexpected" large -scale offensive in modern conditions, because large movement of military equipment is easy to track through satellite images. On the eve of a full -scale invasion in 2022, the Western intelligence services publicly reported the accumulation of Russian troops. Today there are no such confirmed reports.
"It is possible that the Ukrainian command is conducting an operation in the Belgorod region to reduce pressure on the front and to force Russia to stretch forces. If the offensive of the Russians takes place, it will probably be directed to the Sumy or Kharkiv region from the territory of Kursk, Belgorod or Bryansk regions. " The main indicator of the real threat is the data of Western intelligence.
There are no messages from Mi-6, British or Estonian intelligence on the large-scale accumulation of troops. According to Stupak, Western special services usually disclose similar information through anonymous sources, but this time there are no such signals. This indicates that the situation remains uncertain, and any forecasts are based only on limited data.
According to Oleg Zhdanov's military analyst, the General Staff of Ukraine, unfortunately, does not assume the role of a single official source of military information, which leads to confusion in society. The battalion commander cannot comment on the situation at an operational level or evaluate the whole operational direction. However, the General Staff stubbornly does not want to take a leading role in the information of society. That is why there is such confusion.
"It is worth distinguishing the levels of information. What voices the Center for Countering misinformation is a continuation of the official position of the President of Zelensky. The fact remains: the enemy is preparing for a summer offensive campaign. They not only determine the directions of major and minor blows, but also try to bring the conflict to a new level. " The expert reminds that since February in Russia there are a meeting of reservists in the amount of 150 thousand people.
It is these reservists that will be ready for fighting by about the end of spring - early summer. While they are collected and prepared, time will pass, but Putin will receive this mass of personnel by summer. "In terms of autumn call, another 160 thousand people are expected. Statistics show that in half a year Russia can translate up to 50% of conscripts, and possibly more, because there is a" voluntary-forced "contract. This reserve will be aimed at strengthening the already started.
Potentially huge resource is people between the ages of 18 and 27, and in some places up to 30. With regard to the directions of possible offensive, the Liman direction is strategically important for the occupiers, as its breakthrough will open the way to the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration. However, the most active fighting is currently observed in Pokrov and Torets. The invaders try to cut the key routes, which will allow them to threaten the Ukrainian troops.
"In particular, they seek to break into Konstantinovka from Toretsk, to block the Konstantinovka-Pokrovsk route and continue to move either to Konstantinovka, or along the highway to Pokrovsk. At the same time, the estuary direction is critical because it is a" northern gate "to the Slavic and Krakiv. This will create a threat to the surroundings of the Ukrainian forces in the Seversky speech, " - continues the military analyst.
As for Sumy region, Zhdanov believes that a large -scale offensive is not expected there. The enemy does not have sufficient strength for a deep breakthrough, so they will act at a tactical level - through shelling and small breakthroughs in the border areas. The main goal is to cut important logistics routes. "Concerning the timing of activation of hostilities. The active offensive can begin in May.
The political factor also plays a role here: Russia will try to use May 9 for internal propaganda, creating an information reason for mobilization of the population. In general, spring-summer campaign. We will remind, the Russian military dropped a powerful bomb Fab-3000 on a dam in the village of Popivka of Belgorod region. The invaders assure that they have "prevented" the offensive of the Armed Forces.