The money will be, weapons - too. Why don't you be afraid to stop Ukraine and IMF assistance
It all worries us all very much, and for three days we were all experts in American democracy, but all were forced to retraining from experts from the Gaza Sector, and did not have time to explain what was happening. Okay. I am for experts. I explain what kind of assistance it is in Congress. What to expect? To be very brief, in general, all Oki with macro -financial assistance and prospects on it are not bad.
With military assistance, everything is right now, but there may be problems in the future. And now in detail and long. A quote about the "Civil War among Republicans" is a quote of the leader of a democratic minority in the Congress of Gakim Jeffris, if anything. And it was said that the Democrats would not help the Republicans get out of their inner crisis. This means that questions that are very concerned can be deposited for the future.
Russia's war against Ukraine for Democrats and Republicans is the arena of election competitions. It is unpleasant and risky, but at least it is much better than if we were forgotten, and we have become "somewhat Eastern European riots. " Vice versa. We are the cornerstone of American politics. This stone democrats beat the Republicans on the head, and vice versa. The fact is that the Ukrainian subconscious, when talking about a collective event, imagines that the US is governed by the US alone.
And all the US is governed by the US President. Well, now they know that there is some congress. This was all confirmed by cases where US and European officials and leaders pressed on Ukraine in the past with the requirements to perform the IMF memorandums. But everything is not very true. The issue of assistance in Congress is the issue of allocating new funds to military assistance. To a large extent, this money did not get into Ukraine at all.
At best, in Europe, or weapons sellers, but directly from the CIA and Rumo, who bought that weapon for us all over the world. So, when it comes to the fact that Ukrainian corrupt officials are looting US military assistance, what to do, how to be, Ukrainian corrupt officials only laugh sadly and cry in Luiviton's handkerchiefs.
Because "American military assistance" is an American Pentagon gave money to the American manufacturer for a hundred thousand million cartridges, got them from it, slipped on an American plane, steam locomotive, pars It reached Ukraine. And the Ukrainian corrupt officer can only look at the shells and write on Facebook "Thank you to the US government for the next one hundred million dollars", at the same time thinking for itself "with . . . ka, at least alive to see.
" It is as if your grandmother loves you, and when you come to her with the words "Grandma, it's very difficult for me to live, everything is very expensive, you couldn't give me a little money", she says "granddaughter, I love you so much, you are like that Well done, you have a soup on you. " You "and money, my grandmother, you can money", and she answers "And I even in the thermos, here is the soup, look, go, come.
" In fact, we have not yet selected the funds previously selected (so while I write this text, Pentagon has declared a new tranche for Ukraine's military needs from the US budget this year). In addition, the Pentagon can always "overestimate" the value of the issued, as it was more than once. Because, as I said, this money is actually riding between Congress and the Pentagon.
If the Pentagon says that for the same amount, he can give us something, because what has been issued earlier, "costs" less - he issues. Even the help of Israel you have heard now is actually supplying from the US Army in Israel. That is, even the Iron Dome missiles that the United States handed over, in fact, not only bought - they were already in Israel. Simply have not been transferred. In addition, the budget that was adopted without future assistance was temporary. He had to make edits.
But now it is delayed for a while until the Republicans resolve their issues with the majority in Congress. However, the consistency of supply can be preserved by the mechanisms I have said and thanks to the contribution of Europeans. It will be enough for a while because the EU is ready, but they will not be able to do so for a long time.
Therefore, in general, the delay in republican showdowns and possible delays in Israel with the completion of gas surgery are created for us, so to speak, a potentially serious call closer to the summer of 2024. Congress was finished. Further about macro -financial assistance. This is the money as money is not a soup in a poor man. The IMF is an independent institution. Yes, the US has a decisive voice there, but this voice is strategic. Similarly with the World Bank.
The US may affect the introduction of IMF and SB policies, but cannot interfere with the operation. Only at the level of consultations. Yes, of course, it is difficult to believe Ukrainians, but it is true. The decision to allocate assistance to Ukraine by the IMF will be made according to its own procedures and at its own discretion. That is, the IMF functionaries have the greatest impact on the prospects for receiving Ukraine's large macrofin.
Quote by the Deputy Director of the IMF of the IMF Ramakrishnana: "The United States will indeed be part of this dialogue. " Part. Dialogue. This, by the way, was said in response to a letter of priority reforms from the US Embassy. I am not here to do not need to do reforms. Even as it should, and beacons can easily lead to delays in the IMF money (a plan for such a case, if there is also). This is not a lot to understand that purely American internal political factors.
What is there, as with your own discretion in the IMF? How do they evaluate our readiness? The IMF evaluates the conditionally and very simplified two types of parameters. So to speak quantitative parameters (those that can be measured: inflation levels, volume of ZVR, course, budget deficit, etc. ) and design parameters, which are most often described in IMF beacons.
These are all "vote in number", "Conduct currency liberalization", "choose a transparent management of the body", "strengthen the independence of the organ_eum" and more. With quantitative parameters we have everything ok. The direct language of the IMF Mission Chairman in Ukraine: "If we talk about quantitative parameters, as of the end of June, they were all fulfilled. It is a signal that Ukraine's leadership performs all these parameters and moves on a certain trajectory.
" The interview was last week, the estimates are delayed, but if something changed, the IMF would say something like "pay attention to such trends. " So everything is ok. Moreover. In addition to the conservative scenario, the IMF works negative. In the case of a negative scenario, the total volume of tranches that are related to the IMF will be increased from $ 115 billion to 140. Among the negative scenarios, except for purely military, there are problems with Ukrainian exports.
With beacons we are always difficult, but the IMF evaluates the current condition as "the country's power has undertaken and works on their execution. These are more challenges, since the country is in a state of war, and some of these reforms lead to technical challenges, And others are political. And some - to both. " He pleases that there are no questions to the financial sector in the IMF for the first time in many years. Moreover.
During a press conference in Marakesh, the IMF Chairman Christina Georgiev noted the three greatest achievements of Ukraine during the war. The first achievement is the restoration of economic growth, despite the war. Quote: "We now predict an increase of about 3%. We have a range from 1%to 3%, and we tend to the highest limit of this range. " The second achievement is the maintenance of inflation less than 10%.
Also, not a very simple task, the IMF chairman noted that not many countries can boast of such figures, even without war. And one should not think that the IMF can be tapped with any statistics. They know that a decrease in inflation is the result of a "thoughtful policy". The third achievement is the preservation of gold and foreign exchange reserves, which allowed the NBU to move to the managed flexibility of the exchange rate. And it happened before and much more than the IMF expected.
Managed flexibility is the path to currency liberalization, which is recorded in IMF beacons because it helps to grow the economy. As we can see, all three achievements are the result of the National Bank and the Ministry of Finance. The trust of our international partners in these institutions is the highest in the history of Ukrainian independence. And this trust is based on fruitful cooperation and full mutual understanding. We will need this loan of trust in the case of any troubles.
That is why I evaluate the prospects of purely macrofin very positively, simply because they are evaluated by those who give us money. Usually the IMF does not praise anyone. Especially if it gives 115 billion bucks. Vice versa. As we can see, American betrayal is much less affected by our internal, as the IMF says. Both technical and political. Therefore, it is not necessary to worry hard because of the situation in Congress.