From Aleppo to Bakhmut: How Syria became rehearsal for the Russian Federation and Ukraine is the main scene
Today, September 30, it turns 10 years since the beginning of Russia's direct military intervention in Syria. On this day of 2015, the Kremlin officially launched air strikes in Syrian cities, hiding behind the fight against terrorism. In fact, the strokes were directed not only against the "Islamic State", but also on the opposition forces and civilian infrastructure. Decades have passed - and the same strategy has been working in Ukraine.
In Syria, Russia was primarily interested in the Oil Distinum of Deir-Ez-Zora. Part of the control over the deposits was given to private military companies such as Wagner: they "guarded" wells in exchange for the share of profit from oil sales. There were virtually no accounting, trade occurred through shadow schemes. For the Kremlin, it was not only a financial resource, but also an opportunity to influence the world oil market. "In Ukraine, the situation is similar.
The main theater of combat operations is Donbas, where natural resources are concentrated, according to experts, $ 200-250 billion," - explains Focus military expert Dmitry Snegirev. Economic logic is simple: the expenditures of the Russian Federation for war in Ukraine (about $ 350 billion), the Kremlin views as an investment in future control over these fossils.
In Syria, Moscow has received two key military sites: "This allowed the Kremlin to influence Israel, to press on Turkey and to participate in the formation of rules of play in the Middle East. In Ukraine, a similar goal: control of Donbass creates a permanent instability on the eastern flank of NATO. The event, "the expert continues. The most recognizable handwriting of the Russian army is the tactics of "burned land".
In Syria, these were carpet bombardment of Aleppo and other cities, strokes in hospitals, schools and markets. Often used the "Double Tap" scheme - the second blow to the same place where rescuers have already arrived. Human rights activists have documented dozens of such cases. In 2015–2016, Russian aviation, along with Bashar Assad's forces, applied a tactic that human rights activists call "burned land".
The essence: blows are not applied for military purposes, but throughout the territory controlled by the opposition. According to Syrian monitoring groups, during the siege of Aleppo in 2016, more than 70% of medical institutions were damaged or destroyed by such attacks. Since 2022, the same scheme has been moved to Ukraine. "The goal is not so much a military result as a terror of civilian population. In Syria, a wave of migration has been the result Mariupol to Bakhmut.
According to the expert, the Syrian scenario showed that the uncontrolled flow of migrants can destabilize Europe. The Kremlin deliberately struck the crisis, using it for pressure on EU countries. In Ukraine, the consequences are similar: mass emigration creates challenges for the Ukrainian budget, increases social load and at the same time affects the policies of neighbors who accept displaced persons. "In Syria, Russia has become a key player in negotiations and retained Assad regime.
This gave it the opportunity to dictate not only the Syrian parties but also to international partners. In Ukraine, the Kremlin pursues the same purpose: to block the integration of Kiev in NATO and the EU, to create a" gray zone "between Russia. Syria became a landfill for Russia, where she worked out new methods of war. Ukraine is the next stage of the same strategy, only much larger. Ten years later, the Kremlin's tactics do not change, only the scale of the tragedy changes.