The war could end in 2022 on the fatal conditions for Kiev - WSJ
The contours of the agreement, which, apparently, would be acceptable to the Russian President, are viewed in the project of a peace treaty drawn up by Russian and Ukrainian parliamenters in April 2022. About it writes The Wall Street Journal. The approximate terms of the agreement that the Russian leader wants to see was discussed by Ukrainian and Russian representatives about one and a half months from the beginning of the full -scale war.
Western officials and analysts say that these goals remain virtually unchanged after two years of hostilities: to turn Ukraine into a neutral state vulnerable to Russian aggression. Previously, the general provisions of the 17-page document were published, and now the journalists of The Wall Street Journal have access to the full text. The document of April 15, 2022 describes how the managers on both sides tried to put an end to the fighting.
Under the terms of the agreement, which was never signed, Ukraine would always remain a neutral state that does not participate in the military blocks. It would be forbidden to restore their army with the support of the West. Crimea would be controlled by the Russian Federation and would not be neutral. The peace agreement failed to agree after the scale of Russian military crimes in Ukraine, the Armed Forces began to achieve great success, and the West - to supply weapons.
Today, Ukraine declares that it will not start peace talks until Russia has completely removed troops. Analysts also say that the military victory of either party seems not achievable. According to the project, the Ukrainian side considered the opportunity to make significant concessions after the difficulties of the first weeks of the war. Moscow can be forced to such compromises by Moscow if it gets significant territorial conquests.
The project of the treaty states that Ukraine was allowed to membership in the EU, but not in NATO. No foreign weapons were to be present in the Ukrainian territory. The army would be reduced to a certain size. The Russian Federation sought to limit everything: the number of troops, tanks and the range of Ukrainian missiles. The occupied Crimean peninsula would remain under the influence of Moscow.
Moscow also insisted that the Russian language was used on a par with Ukrainian in government and courts. Kyiv did not sign this item. The future of Donbass was not described in the document, it was the subject of personal negotiations of Putin and Zelensky. The meeting never happened. Compliance with the treaty would be guaranteed by foreign countries: the United States, the United Kingdom, China, France and the Russian Federation.
These countries would be responsible for the protection of Ukraine's neutrality if the treaty had been violated. At the same time, the guarantors would have to terminate other international agreements incompatible with the constant neutrality of Ukraine, incl. And any promises of bilateral military assistance. International security guarantees would not apply to Crimea and Sevastopol.
After the attempt to seize Kiev and the overthrow of the government failed, the main purpose of Putin was the stop of Western aid to Ukraine, which envisaged a peace agreement. On June 17, 2023, at a meeting with several African leaders, Putin showed a document, which, he said, was proposed by the head of the winners from Kiev. According to the Kremlin, it had 18 provisions with additions that determined the number of the Ukrainian army and armored vehicles.
According to Samuel Carap, the analyst of the Rand Corporation, Moscow's desire for negotiations is exhausted as the Russian troops were successful on the battlefield. The Head of the British Analytical Center of Conflict Studies Research Centre Keyr Giles believes that such peace agreements leave Ukraine vulnerable before repeated attempts by invasion.
From the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea 2014, Russia has violated more than 400 international agreements and conventions, according to the Catham House research group. All past ceasefire agreements - with Georgia, Syria and Ukraine - Moscow later used it to their advantage, said Giles. The project of the agreement is partly similar to the Agreement of 1990 on the unification of Germany.
Behind it, Soviet troops were withdrawn from East Germany, provided that the country refuses nuclear weapons and establishes restrictions on the number of the army. Moscow wants the army of Ukraine not to exceed 85 thousand people, 342 tanks and 519 artillery units. The Ukrainian side insisted on 250 thousand servicemen, 800 tanks and 1900 artillery systems. The Russian Federation also wanted the range of Ukrainian missiles to be limited to 40 kilometers.
There are other remarkable provisions of the treaty, in particular, what should be done in the event of a second attack on Ukraine. Russia wanted all guarantees to agree what the measures should be. That is, if Russia reappeared as an aggressor, the general military response of the guarantee would not be envisaged. Ukraine insisted that in this case it would be necessary to "close the sky" - to install in the airspace a faulty zone, and the guarantors would begin to provide weapons.
Russia was against it. In addition, the Kremlin wanted to see among the guarantees and Belarus, and Ukraine - Turkey. Representatives of Ukraine also highlighted the text that they refuse to discuss the provision proposed by Russia, which requires Kyiv to withdraw a statement of recognition of the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court engaged in military crimes. Ukraine has also refused to ratify the point of cancellation of all mutual sanctions.