Putin is looking for an "exceptional case" for a nuclear strike in Ukraine - isw
The Russian Federation is trying to undermine the efforts of the international community to reconcile a strategic vision to stop Russia's invaders against Ukraine. During his speech to Russian graduates of military schools, on June 21, Putin stated that the Russian Federation plans to develop a nuclear triad in the future as a "strategic restraint guarantee" and maintain the balance of power in the world.
According to Putin, the Russian Federation also work on increasing conventional combat capabilities and defense production. On June 20, during a press conference in Vietnam, Putin stated that Russia was considering "reducing the threshold" of nuclear weapons in its nuclear doctrine and that a future strategic defeat of Russian troops in Ukraine will lead to "loss of [Russian] statehood.
" American analysts say that, according to Putin, the defeat of the Russian Federation in Ukraine is equal to the existential threat to the Russian state - this condition is needed to refer to an "exceptional case", for which the Russian nuclear doctrine would allow the use of nuclear weapons. Putin's statement of June 21, apparently, continues the information operation to undermine the efforts of the West aimed at the strategic goal - a decisive defeat of the Russian forces.
Yes, they believe in the West, there should be a martial law in Ukraine. ISW analysts believe that the threat of nuclear escalation is the main tool of the Russian Federation to manipulate Western policies who make decisions. It seems unlikely that such a nuclear restraint will actually lead to nuclear escalation. Recall that, according to Deepstate, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation increased pressure on Toretsk and seized another village in Donetsk region.