War-2028: Will the Russian Federation have the forces to attack the Baltic countries
This opinion was expressed by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a summit in Spain. "If Russia is adapted now, in 2028 the Kremlin will be able to restore the broken military potential and in Russia it will be enough to attack the countries that are in the focus of Russian expansion. In addition to Ukraine, it is exactly the Baltic countries and exactly those countries in which Russian contingents are present.
This is clear information from our intelligence, and we will signal you, ”Zelensky said. The likelihood of a scenario in which Russia puts the current war in Ukraine on a pause and is preparing for a new large-scale invasion of several years with other countries, depends on the economy of both Russia and Ukraine, says the military expert of the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation Igor Koziy.
"If Ukraine during this time is able to create a defense-industrial complex and force everyone who has rolled up, pay compensations, and for that money together with partners to build a new one and release enough weapons so that the Armed Forces can perform operations against Russia, such a scenario is little likely ", - says focus Kozi. In the case of freezing of military conflict, sanctions also play an important role.
If the Western countries are weakened and Russia will access technology and finance, it will be able to prepare for a new military campaign in a few years. "Russia is still restoring its military potential. And this will accelerate, if there are no restrictions, export control currently introduced. The Russian Federation cannot increase the missile potential due to current sanctions.
If the restrictions are weakened, they will be able to prepare, " - says Alexander Hara expert in a conversation with focus. Putin dreams of repeating the Caribbean crisis so that the world is again on the threshold of a nuclear disaster, which would allow new arrangements to be approved, taking into account the interests of the Russian Federation, Khara said.
In order to implement a plan, direct allies of the United States, who will not be able to protect against Russian aggression, should be a new goal. "This is Putin's dream, and he tried to realize it, but it did not work. The US is said to be a full -scale invasion of Ukraine is a violation But if one of the US Allies, such as the Baltic country, will be under a blow or in occupation, this is a completely different situation, ”Hara says.
If Russia tries to occupy the Baltic countries, they will not be able to protect themselves. This is understood in the Alliance, which is why plans to protect Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia were discussed in Vilnius in July. According to Har, NATO remains a strong alliance with the support of the United States. If the 2012024 election wins Donald Trump, it is likely that Americans will leave the Alliance.
And then, in the event of a threat, European countries can insist on diplomatic settlement of the conflict. "Trump has already threatened to get out of NATO. And thus pushed all members of the Alliance to pay more actively - 2% of GDP on weapons, not just on the Alliance. There will be nothing left of them. Therefore, there is a plan to protect them. But it provides for the United States.
If there is no guarantee of Americans, it is not a fact that Europeans will be able to implement plans, "Khara notes. Earlier, British Defense Minister James Hippy said that Ukraine has actually been defeated by the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, which was "forced to disperse on ports.
" Experts in the conversation with focus noted that they should not underestimate the enemy - the opportunity to launch "calibers" in them still remains, although the forces of defense of Ukraine significantly weakened them at sea. Focus also wrote that Ukraine needs an increase in the army of drones to hundreds of thousands of UAVs a year. It is difficult to implement this without state aid only at the expense of donators. Therefore, 1.